Aktualisiert

SPX Has a very clear 1-2 1-2 nest set down How far WC or W3?

Either Corrective, and we must not pass the Red line. Or Impulsive and we pass the Red line for much greater pullback/correction ! Red line is the key here, only time and wave strucutre will tell us how far we go down. Watch your long position at least for the short time just in case this is go down below Red line

Anmerkung

Daily view...

Anmerkung

Some breadth indicators are suggesting this !!!

Anmerkung

Look up for further details ! If and if i am right !

Anmerkung

We have 5 waves down completed !

Anmerkung

Moving average 5 Days, not whole allot of buying the "Dips" here !!!

Anmerkung

CNN Fear & Greed index:
As low as 10.22.2022

Anmerkung

If you are bearish & only if you are ! Macro count for ABC or WXY !

Anmerkung

f you are bearish & only if you are ! Macro count for ABCDE Triangle then up !

Anmerkung

Goofing around and counting, 5 minutes chart, all the simple impulsive 5 waves !

Anmerkung

2 Rejections here on 1H chart:
1/ October's of 2022 low (Green line) !
2/ Down Blue channel !

Anmerkung

4199 Is the # to watch !

Anmerkung

# 1 : ESi futures, suggesting an ending diagonal here ! We could/might have our trough in already.

Anmerkung

Zoon in for a probable final W5

Anmerkung

#2 : ESi futures, this last move up does not look like an impulsive move . Could be a leading diagonal of some sort !? If so we have not seen a big drop as usual after it.

Anmerkung

Back to our regular session SPX :
1/Expanding leading Diagonal ! ( if you are bullish)
2/ WXY Corrective then down. (Bearish)
3/WXYZ Corrective then down. (Bearish)

Anmerkung

Updating our break down. Could/might be a "Bear's trap" either way we are
back inside our Blue channel +Above October's low Green line. !

Anmerkung

Everything we did here and on X implies a "Trough" is in place. Me not understanding this last move as of yesterday is the only thing standing in my way to confirm such a thing. Other than that everything suggest a bottom has been reached ! Or i could be wrong and south we go, never now.!

Anmerkung

Probable L.Diagonal of some sort if you believe a trough is in already!? = We will revisit the W1 region today/tomorrow !

Anmerkung

Daily, just chilling on both major trend lines !

Anmerkung

Before up, after here down !

Anmerkung

If you are bullish then this could be something like this !

Anmerkung

If you are bearish then we have one more leg down ! Wish WXYZ in place as a corrective counter trend move !

Anmerkung

If we are going up for W3 then we have completed ABC for W2 as such.

Anmerkung

If you believe we still got one more leg down then it should not pass Red box !

Anmerkung

Not good !

Anmerkung

Final leg for bears if they want to push this further south !

Anmerkung

PC is implying a trough has been placed in already !

Anmerkung

If i may add, or with in 1-5 Days !

Anmerkung

Time wise :
1/ Our last bullish move can not be related to this prior last move down 37 bars vs 32 bars.
2/ Might/could be related to a bigger count from last leg down.

3/ Or this is the beginning of bullish move !

Anmerkung

IF you still believe we have more leg down then this last 32 bars are more probably related to "Chart"
32 bars VS 37 bars time wise: NO
81 bars VS 32 bars time wise: Probable

- if you are bullish then this last 32 bars are the "Beginning " of a new bullish move.

Anmerkung

5 Waves for the bears !

Anmerkung

Pullback is needed ! Red box !

Anmerkung

A textbook ABC Corrective counter trend move has finished ( If you are bullish).
We gave 2 scenarios for an ABC or 5 waves down impulsive down. After such corrective move look for a probable new ATH !

- If you believe that we are crashing and the is the beginning, then this is parably still wave 3 for you and we would go down. You will need a catalyst for that and more trading days to form a bigger corrective move to support your bearish scenario in the coming days/weeks. !

Anmerkung

IF you believe that we have bottomed already, this was an ABC counter trend corrective move, then 5th wave is incoming by the end of 2023 as such. !

Anmerkung

For the bearish case out there, look up for further details !
9th +10th up dates have 2 bearish scenarios which should be followed closely !

Anmerkung

ESI has invalidated Impulsive up !

Anmerkung

ABC has completed, 3 waves down !!! We could have Impulsive down in Blue NOT good for bulls !!!

Anmerkung

Back to our regular session. We have mentioned Red box ( Look Above) for wave 4 of an impulsive up, well ESi has invalidated that if we do the same here Red line not good for bulls as well. We shall see by the end of today's trading session !

Anmerkung

what if this is an ABC (Since ESi invalidated impulsive up):
A= Diagonal
B= Flat
C= Impulsive
* We must break below Red line 4268.50 + have a motive wave structure (We need more time to develop such structure)
* We have 2ed +3ed options as WXY & WXYZ, then this would be our 4th ABC which i have not mentioned due to the complexity of the previous waves!

Anmerkung

if this is the case we wont go that far, tgt is Red box ! And i do not like it because on smaller time frames we have nailed our 5th wave down ! Unless this is an impulsive going down and we will go much further down ( Look above for a triangle + WXY Macro counts)

Anmerkung

For Example buddy. Look at AAPL'S today count ! How can yo count this (Which is going to, with high probability, determine the next move for SPX ) !

Anmerkung

Entering W4, Red box ( check prior ideas).!

Anmerkung

Few points from invalidation of our impulsive up, stay close to your trades here guys.!

Anmerkung

More impulsive here than corrective, we shall see by end of day. ! Stay nimble guys.!

Anmerkung

Ending diagoanl for wave 5. Or not and i am simply wrong on this big time as we might have a trough in place already .!

Anmerkung

Invalidation here .!

Anmerkung

Favoring an impulsive move up !

Anmerkung

How on GOD'S Earth, can someone count this as corrective ABC (Red circle) !!!

Anmerkung

Not even one minutes chart could be counted as an ABC corrective !!!

Anmerkung

If you count is as a WXY double Ziggy, then the rule of alternation is not happening here since wave 2 was flat !!!

Flat for Wave 2 !!!

Anmerkung

Looking for a top today.!

Anmerkung

Estimated time of arrival of wave 5 is between 10:50 & 11:45. !
Then wave 2 down 4200ish .!

Anmerkung

Arriving to our tgt a bit early ;-)

Anmerkung

Next is 1.62 W5 to W1. !

Anmerkung

Re-adjusting W2 retracements due to the fact that we kind off overextended our 5th wave here.

Anmerkung

Waves 3 & 5 are kind off equal in % gain.!

Anmerkung

We should see sharp move down for wave C or 3 of A

Anmerkung

If this is W2, then we should pass 1.15% .! Bigger count should be bigger in pullbacks than smaller count.!

Anmerkung

The least thing bears should do is having a bigger pullback :-) this is very shallow for W2. During our w2 +w4 pullbacks we went south a bit deeper. !

Anmerkung

What if we still have another higher high and we just finished wave 3, pulling back in wave 4 right now then final wave 5 to complete five impulsive up. !

Anmerkung

ETA, is 2:45 PM where Time equality 5=1 @ 4397 where % equality 5=1.!

Anmerkung

ES1 this morning is just 70 points from the Golden Ratio.!

Anmerkung

ES, Achieved .76 extension.!

Anmerkung

ES'S Move this morning.!

Anmerkung

Looks like a flat here.!

Anmerkung

This move in circle is just one straight line !!!! The look is Flat but no way to count 5 waves down.!!!!

Anmerkung

We have not, if this is 5 impulsive up, reached 61% retracements for wave 2 then 3 up.!

Anmerkung

Probable .!

Anmerkung

If you are bullish, this is your path.!

Some Elliottions are suggesting we are in a "Bearish" market and this is just a counter trend move then we go down.! We shall see.!

Anmerkung

Only Flat if we have an Ending Diagonal.!

Anmerkung

More complex waves here.!

Anmerkung

1-2-3-4-5 Waves Vs ABC.!

Anmerkung

If you are bullish this is your "Touch down" for wave 4 of 5.!

Anmerkung

5th of 5th is up next , if yo are bullish here.!

Anmerkung

For the bullish case we are probably somewhere in here, w1 of of w3 of W5.!

Anmerkung

Challenging to say the least.!

Anmerkung

Truncation + Deep pullback.!?

Anmerkung

Using daily & disregarding our mini counts 5m,15ms.... And being Bullish this is your target.! So many bearish counts out there ABCs.!

Anmerkung

It seems that we have a 5 waves impulsive up with one big wave 4 (Deep retracements >61%)

Anmerkung

ES1, Still under October 12th's high ??!!

Anmerkung

So what is next for SPX ?

Scenarios:

#1: We have completed 5 waves up going for W2 down.!

Anmerkung

#2: We have completed 5 waves up October 10th, wave 2 was a Flat and we have finished wave 1 of wave 3 up.!

Anmerkung

#3: ES1 is still in a corrective move !!! Could be a flash warning for a potential break down .!?

samitrading

I do more in depth studies of stocks on my twitter account. Hope you would enjoy it there as you are enjoying it here.

****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***

twitter.com/samitrading1

Auch am:

Haftungsausschluss

Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.

samitrading

Auch am: