MARKET DIRECTION UP, CAUTION STILL REQUIRED
The index crossed and closed above its 2,820 resistance last Friday.
Momentum has understandably slowed since, and ahead of Fed announcement today.
Some mixed action: Mixed SPX technicals, Fedex profit warning and trade talk deception rumors.
Meanwhile, volatility (VIX) has registered an intermediate triple bottom at 13.50 and sits right at it.
All this is unsurprising in light of the recent v-shaped rally (yet another one): 20%+ in 3 months have to be digested.
Market direction is still resolutely up, and we could be heading towards the previous high after the necessary pause.
WHAT TO WATCH?
- Fed announcement
- Resulting move in the VIX
- 2,820 resistance turned support
- MA200 at 2,760
- Historical high at 2,940
ACTION
I keep defensive positioning (long volatility) and stay long my favorite names while managing my stop losses quite tightly.
The index crossed and closed above its 2,820 resistance last Friday.
Momentum has understandably slowed since, and ahead of Fed announcement today.
Some mixed action: Mixed SPX technicals, Fedex profit warning and trade talk deception rumors.
Meanwhile, volatility (VIX) has registered an intermediate triple bottom at 13.50 and sits right at it.
All this is unsurprising in light of the recent v-shaped rally (yet another one): 20%+ in 3 months have to be digested.
Market direction is still resolutely up, and we could be heading towards the previous high after the necessary pause.
WHAT TO WATCH?
- Fed announcement
- Resulting move in the VIX
- 2,820 resistance turned support
- MA200 at 2,760
- Historical high at 2,940
ACTION
I keep defensive positioning (long volatility) and stay long my favorite names while managing my stop losses quite tightly.
Kommentar:
The market tricked us yesterday into believing that the rally should continue, after a close above the strong resistance... However... It is back to its senses today, reflecting the negative backdrop highlighted in my "VIX: Three times lucky" idea below. SPX is still in the danger zone, especially if it closes today below 2,820.
Brace for SPX trip below resistance/support again.