S&P 500 slides as rate cut hopes fade

17. Jan.

US Stock indices are all weaker today compounding yesterday’s losses. Investors continue to cut back their long side exposure as they reassess the possible timing of rate cuts through 2024. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly warned market participants to temper their expectations for looser monetary policy, warning that inflation may not yet be beaten and citing ongoing tightness in the labour market as a strong reason for dialling back on their dovishness. Yesterday, FOMC member Christopher Waller was the latest to give this warning, and his colleague John Williams is likely to reinforce this message when he speaks later today. We have seen significant tightening across bond markets, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note now well above 4.0%. Considering the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in March has dropped to 55%, down from 77% at the end of last week. Chart-wise, there’s a very obvious area of resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,800 as the index has repeatedly failed to make a significant break above this level. It’s now testing support around 4,740. Below here, 4,700 is the next line in the sand for the bulls to defend. If that’s taken out, then there’s very little in the way of support until 4,600 which marks the high hit at the end of July last year.