a two year bull market. what has changed?
its been 756 days since the bottom in the s&p500. the weekly is on an extended bull run to the 6000 region. last week has been the biggest drop in volatility in this trend.
large risk on weeks come with pullbacks, but this week hasnt bearishly diverged from the trend yet.
fib time zone tells us the trend hasnt reached a local maximum yet. the general trend hasnt changed since monday may 15 2023.
since signal hasnt changed i wouldnt try to short this market yet.
a breach of this dopen would probably lead to a pullback around pmVAH, and i would look to do this by ftz 13. still a local bear move toward the 5800 region isnt unthinkable.
i would still rely on this broader market move setting higher weekly lows and vreaking to new all time highs for the foreseeable future, which is why im leaning long here, even with the advanced age of this bull market (even post election).
large risk on weeks come with pullbacks, but this week hasnt bearishly diverged from the trend yet.
fib time zone tells us the trend hasnt reached a local maximum yet. the general trend hasnt changed since monday may 15 2023.
since signal hasnt changed i wouldnt try to short this market yet.
a breach of this dopen would probably lead to a pullback around pmVAH, and i would look to do this by ftz 13. still a local bear move toward the 5800 region isnt unthinkable.
i would still rely on this broader market move setting higher weekly lows and vreaking to new all time highs for the foreseeable future, which is why im leaning long here, even with the advanced age of this bull market (even post election).
Anmerkung
this has been the worst week in vix since august
its a very bearish time for s&p500 volatility
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