Incoming 40% correction for Super Micro Computer, Inc.

1. Juli

On the above 4 day chart price action has rallied 270% since January. And 3000% !!! since June 2022. It is somewhat unfortunate to see so many long ideas at the moment.

Motley Fool June 30th:

“1 Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Before It Soars 70%, According to Loop Capital”
“Loop Capital thinks Supermicro is going to $1,500”

Madness.

Why bearish?

Broken market structure. It is very clear to see, price action has broken the last higher low AND confirmed it as resistance. You can see this more clearly on the daily chart below.

Double top bearish divergence. On the 3 week chart below price action prints a RSI lower high (red arrows) with a higher high in price action. On this time frame an important trend shift is indicated.

Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww


1 day broken market structure


3 week bearish divergence

9. Juli

Anmerkung

I’m asked:

“Volatile day today. How do you see today's move impacting your analysis above?”

I'm not that kind of analyst, one who reacts to daily price action. That’s for the herd. There’s too many charts published by myself to keep up with day to day volatility, you must have your own plan. Instead what I’m doing, in particular with stocks, is looking for macro shift, events to come.

On the 3 month chart below momentum is falling (black circles) there is no question of that. Can price action go up higher? Sure. But consider the risk.

The last time momentum bled a 76% correction followed after a 340% rally.

We have just seen a 12,000% rally without stock splits. Yes you read that correctly, since 2019! And yet tradingview is full of long macro ideas. It is incredible. “New bull market to begin” they say. The mind boggles.

A 90% correction today still leave you with a 800% return from 2019.

18. Juli

Trade ist aktiv

Price action comprehensively confirms past support as resistance.

"Chip stocks tumble as Trump comments rattle investors"
ft.com/content/6bc103f8-b6ba-4137-beae-6222827b297f

24. Juli

Anmerkung

Everyone is looking for the exit... problem with that is you need a greater fool.

2. Aug.

Trade ist aktiv

A very convincing resistance confirmation today. Should the month close below 780... take precautions.

5. Aug.

Anmerkung

The advertised 40% collapse in price action on the main chart seems imminent.

Do not try to catch a falling knife, a consolidation period lasting some years will follow.
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6. Aug.

Trade ist aktiv

10% correction post market close. 30% drop since publishing. 10% to go.

If price action drops below 500 with weekly candle closes, expect a following 40% correction.

7. Aug.

Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht

Boom, 40% correction.

7. Aug.

Anmerkung

Wait for 120.

Meanwhile enjoy the black slope, once you fall nothing will stop you ;-)
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15. Aug.

Anmerkung

A 2nd chance to exit at market structure, around 720 to 740

28. Aug.

Anmerkung

$300 should see a strong bounce, a nice trade.
Investors... as mentioned above, wait for around 120.

30. Okt.

Trade ist aktiv

Down almost 70% since publishing. Long term investors, wait for price action under $7.

vorgestern

Anmerkung

Another -22% bulls are getting hammered.

-74% in total so far. Shouldn't be too long until the $7 support area.