$NVDA Chip War

4. Sept. 2023

I see a lot of ideas of people trying to call or time the top on something they think is "over-bought" on irrelevant momentum indicators such as RSI. Momentum indicators are just that, if it has momentum its going to have a high reading but doesn't at all means it needs to come down.

Or they pull up the monthly/weekly chart and say there is no way it can keep going.

Technical analysis is MAYBE 50% of trading, looking at NVDA from the macro level is very key. This chip war right now is the most important piece. Hedge funds and big money will take money out very fast if they think NVDA will lose this war to China. CEO of NVDA wants to very much capture the biggest market in the world build large AI language models and data centers.

This war will started with the US can not keep heating up forever as it will ruin the tech inside America and America runs on tech.

If we decide to trade blow for blow,
- Oct. 2022, we ban exports
- July 2023, China announced restrictions on Gallium and Germanium two key components to build any chips in the world.

So while NVDA may need to come down to the $400 level, are you waiting for that to buy or are you betting the war will go blow for blow in a much larger tech war?




This 4hr chart shows that if we reject this most recent level, we can attempt to break $500. If not the next level is $400 and as a trader we must take each level step by step and wait for candle closes on larger timeframes.

Usually everyone for the most part have very similar levels, its the entries that lie the difference between profitability and account blown.



$485 on the 1hr timeframe is the intraday level that looks like will mostly lead to a move towards $450.