NVDA Weekly Harmonic Elliott Wave Analysis

Overview: let's review the key points of my last update on NVDA published on March 18th:
  • Not much change to the daily path that we have been following for months.
  • On the hourly chart, I see wave (A) of 3 of c of (III) being complete.
  • What follows this week is a pullback as wave (B) of 3, then continuing the move higher in the following weeks.

Snapshot

Update: NVDA is following our proposed path accurately. The only difference was that wave 5 of c of (III) fell short of the target we were considering for wave (III) peak.

What I see at the moment is that wave (III) peak is in and we are inside wave (IV) on NVDA. One thing for sure is that NVDA is very extended to the upside at these prices and its very risky (not a good risk to reward ratio) to enter bullish before waiting for a descent pullback either in price or time (as this is a wave (IV), pullback in time is expected, meaning that we won't do a considerable pullback in price, but will stay in this range for a considerable amount of time). I see wave (IV) developing as a flat correction, with its wave a of (IV) being complete. Now, there are two possibilities for wave b of (IV) (equally valid):

A) Wave b of (IV) is already complete and we are already inside wave c of (IV), which has to be in 5 waves.
B) Wave b of (IV) is developing as a zigzag, so we will see a push higher, even beyond the peak of wave (III), then wave c of (IV) will develop to the downside.

Based on the structure developed so far following the bottom of wave a of (IV) and my general overview of the market, I favor option B playing out. To further help us decide between these two, I have drawn a parallel ascending channel on NVDA connecting the peaks of wave (I) and wave (III) to provide an approximate price and time target for wave (IV) bottom, which agrees with option B (because if option A is playing, we should be already in wave 3 of c of (IV) and its hard to believe it will continue in time until mid May).

To wrap up, I see NVDA inside wave (IV) and I expect its completion by the third week of may at a target of ~255.
Snapshot
Elliott WaveHarmonic Patterns

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