Nokia - a sleeping giant?
Aktualisiert
Nokia has been quiet for years - too quiet I suspect. You remember those old brick phones, the ones that were nearly indestructible, right?
I have been watching Nokia off and on since March of last year, trying to find a decent entry point. This is an update to my original idea linked below.
Due to Nokia's prior reputation, I have for nearly a year had a very strong hunch that it is soon to have a major break upwards.
On Robinhood, there is a $7 call leap contract that expires 1/21/2022. It is currently trading for 16 cents.
Around the end of October, the leap contract hit a low of 12 cents then had a fairly impressive rebound to higher than 21 cents.
Currently, I am holding the largest position I have ever had in stocks. Specifically on Nokia, after I saw that it bottomed yet again at 12 cents.
A lot of people would say going all in on one position is not smart, but I'm not a person that can pay attention to too many things/assets at once.
Plus, the feeling I have about this stock is next to unbreakable, no matter what it does in the short term.
Fundamentals aside, this is a chart analysis of why I believe Nokia is not just 'a' sleeping giant, but 'the' sleeping giant.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
This is a trend line in Nokia that I spotted which began on the week of February 20th, 2001.
Nokia broke below this trend line with force between the weeks of April 19th, 2010, and April 26th, 2010.
Since then, Nokia has failed to break above it for any significant amount of time until the week of May 22nd, 2017.
Unfortunately Nokia was unable to hold mid-term support and on the week of October 23rd, 2017, had a significant ~20% drop.
Nokia has battled with breaking and staying above this trend line since then, with every break below causing significant selling pressure.
Interestingly, Nokia has an earnings report coming up on February 4th, 2021. Almost 20 years to the day that this trend began.
I believe Nokia is fairly close to breaking above this trend line for good due to a few things I am seeing on the chart.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
When I check the RSI, I immediately notice multiple trends. The first one being Nokia significantly rejecting any value above 60.
From the week of January 21st, 2014 to April 17th, 2017, Nokia did not stay above 60 RSI. Even the April 2017 break above was short lived.
Also notice, that break above 60 RSI was likely caused by Nokia testing support at first the .618 Fib, then the .50 Fib.
It then proceeded to have a longer-term triple top in price at the $6.4 resistance while the RSI was printing noticeably lower highs.
The failure in 2019 to break above this resistance then began another major downtrend.
This is the second trend I spotted in the RSI. This is also the second biggest justification I have for being so bullish on Nokia.
Since entering overbought in late 2013, Nokia has failed at breaking above 60 RSI let alone 70 until the end of May, 2017.
The May high in the RSI created a few different trend lines that Nokia has reacted very strongly to.
Up until April 2020, the longest amount of time that Nokia's RSI has been able to spend above this resistance is approximately 2 months.
On the week of April 20th, 2020, Nokia was able to break above this trend with force, and after 2 successful support tests has so far stayed above it.
A much smaller and shorter-term trend line I noticed. Currently, Nokia is above it.
When we go into the 3d chart, we can see that this trend line was rejected as resistance on October 19th after falling below it in late August.
In late November, the RSI once again managed to break back above it. It successfully passed a support test and is currently attempting to test it once more to flip it from resistance into support.
When we check the daily, however, there is something interesting to be seen. After briefly dipping below this trend line, the RSI had a decent rally back above it. We can see that this is the 3rd attempt to test for support. Should the next 3 day candle hold, this should cause another test of local resistance.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
And now, the MACD. The MACD has, in my opinion, been showing consistency over the past 10 years with a trend line of higher lows.
With the exception of the drop from Covid, the major lows in the MACD have all been higher than the last.
Even when the Covid drop happened, the MACD printed bullish divergence. The MACD histogram at the same time printed hidden bullish divergence.
This caused Nokia to have a ~119% rally.
We can also see that, currently, the MACD is above the higher lows trend line.
Zooming out to the 1 month time frame, an interesting situation.
After testing and rejecting the 0 line, the MACD printed what is so far a potential double bottom. A break above the 0 line will validate this scenario.
There is also a slight bullish cross. The histogram has also flipped upwards, but not by a significant margin.
The 2 month shows a few other interesting signals.
The thing that catches my eye here is what seems to be very strong bullish divergence. The September 2020 price low is approximately 28% lower than the September 2016 low, yet the MACD is showing a higher low. Nokia is also attempting a bullish cross here after being rejected on the first attempt.
Another key thing to note on this time frame in the MACD is the histogram, which appears to be showing sell momentum waning.
Nokia attempted a bullish cross in the July 2020 2 month candle but was rejected, and is now yet again attempting another bullish cross.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Aisde from Nokia currently residing above the 20 year trend line, there are also multiple price patterns/signals presenting themselves.
After Nokia dropped from the .5 Fib retracement, the price has been printing a potential bear flag.
Nokia did however catch strong buying support on the 0.886 Fib, which is typically the absolute last stand for bulls to regain control.
That Fib also coincided with the Covid market-wide selloff in March of 2020.
After Nokia broke back above the 20 year trend line, it was also able to break a mid-term diagonal resistance. This resistance has been tested successfully for sure once, although most people would argue the gap was also potentially indicative of a successful support test.
Within this bear flag, however, there are 3 different price structures indicating potential bullish pressure building. I do not hold much weight with price patterns anymore however as I have been burned one too many times by them, and/or fake breaks of them. Still, I find that for analytical purposes I may as well mention them just in case.
First, a giant potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. Should this complete, the measured target for this would be approximately $2 higher than the point where it breaks above the neckline. Technically, this pattern alone could quite easily propel Nokia above my forecasted target of $7 depending on if the neckline is tilted upwards or is the 0.618 Fib. And again, only if the pattern is legit.
Second, a much smaller potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. Should this one complete, the measured target for it is approximately $1 higher than the point of breakout above the neckline. The measured target for this particular one to complete would be roughly the 0.5 Fib, which resides at $5.18.
Interestingly, both of these POTENTIAL inverted head and shoulders pattern started at the 0.618 Fib.
The bigger one completing would propel Nokia out of the current bear flag which would be a major buy signal to traders.
There is also a potential ascending triangle, with an apex around August 2021.
A long term downtrend channel.
A long term potential falling wedge with fake breakouts to the upside and downside.
I think this is more likely to be a downtrend channel than anything but I guess you never know.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
In conclusion, Nokia at this point can go pretty much anywhere. What I have outlined in this idea is strongly bias to the bullish side.
The fundamentals for Nokia are currently very neutral. There is a new CEO who previously worked for Sony Ericsson, who has outlined a new roadmap for the company as a whole. They have positive cash flow and a low debt to asset ratio. They did however have a drop in overall revenue. Also, the outstanding amount of shares for Nokia is very high. Due to this, a lot of traders believe it would take a seriously large catalyst for Nokia to break its current downtrend/range. I may be early on this trade, but I do believe that within the next 6 months, Nokia could make a serious turnaround.
At this point, I believe that anything below current share price is a strong buy.
The leap contracts for Nokia are also dirt cheap, according to multiple postings on social media.
Time will tell. I will leave you with this food for thought:
When in doubt.. Zoom out.
Original idea:
I have been watching Nokia off and on since March of last year, trying to find a decent entry point. This is an update to my original idea linked below.
Due to Nokia's prior reputation, I have for nearly a year had a very strong hunch that it is soon to have a major break upwards.
On Robinhood, there is a $7 call leap contract that expires 1/21/2022. It is currently trading for 16 cents.
Around the end of October, the leap contract hit a low of 12 cents then had a fairly impressive rebound to higher than 21 cents.
Currently, I am holding the largest position I have ever had in stocks. Specifically on Nokia, after I saw that it bottomed yet again at 12 cents.
A lot of people would say going all in on one position is not smart, but I'm not a person that can pay attention to too many things/assets at once.
Plus, the feeling I have about this stock is next to unbreakable, no matter what it does in the short term.
Fundamentals aside, this is a chart analysis of why I believe Nokia is not just 'a' sleeping giant, but 'the' sleeping giant.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
This is a trend line in Nokia that I spotted which began on the week of February 20th, 2001.
Nokia broke below this trend line with force between the weeks of April 19th, 2010, and April 26th, 2010.
Since then, Nokia has failed to break above it for any significant amount of time until the week of May 22nd, 2017.
Unfortunately Nokia was unable to hold mid-term support and on the week of October 23rd, 2017, had a significant ~20% drop.
Nokia has battled with breaking and staying above this trend line since then, with every break below causing significant selling pressure.
Interestingly, Nokia has an earnings report coming up on February 4th, 2021. Almost 20 years to the day that this trend began.
I believe Nokia is fairly close to breaking above this trend line for good due to a few things I am seeing on the chart.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
When I check the RSI, I immediately notice multiple trends. The first one being Nokia significantly rejecting any value above 60.
From the week of January 21st, 2014 to April 17th, 2017, Nokia did not stay above 60 RSI. Even the April 2017 break above was short lived.
Also notice, that break above 60 RSI was likely caused by Nokia testing support at first the .618 Fib, then the .50 Fib.
It then proceeded to have a longer-term triple top in price at the $6.4 resistance while the RSI was printing noticeably lower highs.
The failure in 2019 to break above this resistance then began another major downtrend.
This is the second trend I spotted in the RSI. This is also the second biggest justification I have for being so bullish on Nokia.
Since entering overbought in late 2013, Nokia has failed at breaking above 60 RSI let alone 70 until the end of May, 2017.
The May high in the RSI created a few different trend lines that Nokia has reacted very strongly to.
Up until April 2020, the longest amount of time that Nokia's RSI has been able to spend above this resistance is approximately 2 months.
On the week of April 20th, 2020, Nokia was able to break above this trend with force, and after 2 successful support tests has so far stayed above it.
A much smaller and shorter-term trend line I noticed. Currently, Nokia is above it.
When we go into the 3d chart, we can see that this trend line was rejected as resistance on October 19th after falling below it in late August.
In late November, the RSI once again managed to break back above it. It successfully passed a support test and is currently attempting to test it once more to flip it from resistance into support.
When we check the daily, however, there is something interesting to be seen. After briefly dipping below this trend line, the RSI had a decent rally back above it. We can see that this is the 3rd attempt to test for support. Should the next 3 day candle hold, this should cause another test of local resistance.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
And now, the MACD. The MACD has, in my opinion, been showing consistency over the past 10 years with a trend line of higher lows.
With the exception of the drop from Covid, the major lows in the MACD have all been higher than the last.
Even when the Covid drop happened, the MACD printed bullish divergence. The MACD histogram at the same time printed hidden bullish divergence.
This caused Nokia to have a ~119% rally.
We can also see that, currently, the MACD is above the higher lows trend line.
Zooming out to the 1 month time frame, an interesting situation.
After testing and rejecting the 0 line, the MACD printed what is so far a potential double bottom. A break above the 0 line will validate this scenario.
There is also a slight bullish cross. The histogram has also flipped upwards, but not by a significant margin.
The 2 month shows a few other interesting signals.
The thing that catches my eye here is what seems to be very strong bullish divergence. The September 2020 price low is approximately 28% lower than the September 2016 low, yet the MACD is showing a higher low. Nokia is also attempting a bullish cross here after being rejected on the first attempt.
Another key thing to note on this time frame in the MACD is the histogram, which appears to be showing sell momentum waning.
Nokia attempted a bullish cross in the July 2020 2 month candle but was rejected, and is now yet again attempting another bullish cross.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Aisde from Nokia currently residing above the 20 year trend line, there are also multiple price patterns/signals presenting themselves.
After Nokia dropped from the .5 Fib retracement, the price has been printing a potential bear flag.
Nokia did however catch strong buying support on the 0.886 Fib, which is typically the absolute last stand for bulls to regain control.
That Fib also coincided with the Covid market-wide selloff in March of 2020.
After Nokia broke back above the 20 year trend line, it was also able to break a mid-term diagonal resistance. This resistance has been tested successfully for sure once, although most people would argue the gap was also potentially indicative of a successful support test.
Within this bear flag, however, there are 3 different price structures indicating potential bullish pressure building. I do not hold much weight with price patterns anymore however as I have been burned one too many times by them, and/or fake breaks of them. Still, I find that for analytical purposes I may as well mention them just in case.
First, a giant potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. Should this complete, the measured target for this would be approximately $2 higher than the point where it breaks above the neckline. Technically, this pattern alone could quite easily propel Nokia above my forecasted target of $7 depending on if the neckline is tilted upwards or is the 0.618 Fib. And again, only if the pattern is legit.
Second, a much smaller potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. Should this one complete, the measured target for it is approximately $1 higher than the point of breakout above the neckline. The measured target for this particular one to complete would be roughly the 0.5 Fib, which resides at $5.18.
Interestingly, both of these POTENTIAL inverted head and shoulders pattern started at the 0.618 Fib.
The bigger one completing would propel Nokia out of the current bear flag which would be a major buy signal to traders.
There is also a potential ascending triangle, with an apex around August 2021.
A long term downtrend channel.
A long term potential falling wedge with fake breakouts to the upside and downside.
I think this is more likely to be a downtrend channel than anything but I guess you never know.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
In conclusion, Nokia at this point can go pretty much anywhere. What I have outlined in this idea is strongly bias to the bullish side.
The fundamentals for Nokia are currently very neutral. There is a new CEO who previously worked for Sony Ericsson, who has outlined a new roadmap for the company as a whole. They have positive cash flow and a low debt to asset ratio. They did however have a drop in overall revenue. Also, the outstanding amount of shares for Nokia is very high. Due to this, a lot of traders believe it would take a seriously large catalyst for Nokia to break its current downtrend/range. I may be early on this trade, but I do believe that within the next 6 months, Nokia could make a serious turnaround.
At this point, I believe that anything below current share price is a strong buy.
The leap contracts for Nokia are also dirt cheap, according to multiple postings on social media.
Time will tell. I will leave you with this food for thought:
When in doubt.. Zoom out.
Original idea:
Anmerkung
Prepare for a very lengthy post. I have worked my ASS off on this.Since my original ideas on TV and social media, there have been quite a few very interesting developments. For once, I'm not going to do just chart analysis. I am also adding a large amount of due diligence regarding options activity, social media activity, news articles, and comparisons against competitors. Financials are something I am still struggling to learn but hopefully will eventually get there. As far as financials are concerned, I do know that their revenue is down overall but their profit margins have increased. As far as revenue is concerned, Nokia has been acquiring a large amount of contracts lately in the 5G sector. Nokia also has a very good debt to asset ratio when compared against pretty much the entire industry they're attempting to capture market share in.
This will start off with some regular old chart analysis. Support and resistance levels, and candlestick and RSI analysis. Bollinger Bands are self explanitory for the most part.
Let us start with a crucial RSI trend I discovered on the 2 month time frame.
Spanning from 2006, there has been a consistent trend of attempted breakouts upwards and above 50 RSI. Each breakout has been a lower high thus far. Currently, Nokia is contending with this 2 month RSI trend line for the 7th time. This is a MAJOR area of confluence when combined with MA's, Fib retracement levels, and reactions in candlesticks.
On the monthly, we can see that this trend line coincided with a major selloff in October of 2019. This selloff was caused by a bad earnings report on 10/24/2019. Earnings were estimated to be $0.05 but reported $0.01 which had a -69.42% surprise of -$0.04. Prior to this, the month of August broke down below this trend line. During the month of September, Nokia attempted to rally back above it on low volume. The local support level it was testing at $5.18 or the 0.5 Fib retracement flipped to resistance and caused a 27.87% drop after the bad earnings report. It was not until the month of June 2020 that Nokia was able to get back above this trend line. 2 months later, Nokia tested that same resistance level and was able to get above 50 RSI, but was strongly rejected. This rejection dropped Nokia back below the RSI trend line, but it was able to hold support at 40 RSI. The month of November 2020 however had a bullish engulfing candle to bring Nokia back above the trend line. Then the month of October 2020 had low sell volume and thus held as support. For this particular trend line, support has not been tested successfully like this since July of 2018. Note however, that the mid line of the bollinger bands is so far holding as resistance.
Notice the giant bearish hammer the lower arrow is pointing to. That was the market-wide covid selloff of March 2020 and it closed directly at the 0.786 Fib retracement. There was strong bullish support residing at the 0.886 Fib retracement which not only caused the large wick, but strongly pushed Nokia back up and into the 20 year trend line zone of support. Since December of 2017, Nokia's price movement has been unable to close a monthly candle below this trend line. In October of 2020, Nokia once again successfully tested the 0.786 Fib retracement for support which coincided perfectly with the 20 year trend line and a diagonal trend line breakout.
Anmerkung
The 2 month trend line also translates very well to the daily, where we can see that Nokia has successfully tested this trend line multiple times for support throughout 2020.Since 12/21/2020, Nokia has so far successfully tested this support on this time frame. According to the trend, this *should* produce at least some upwards movement to test local resistance levels. Namely, the 0.618 Fib level at $4.34.
According to the 3 month time frame, Nokia has *serious* support below the
TREE fiddy price point, and 40 RSI. The October 2016 3 month candle tested 40 RSI and had a fairly strong bounce. Then a year later, same thing. From that point forward, this zone was not tested until the negative October 2019 earnings report pushed Nokia well below it. Then in April 2020, Nokia had a high volume bullish engulfing candle that brought the RSI back above 40 but was rejected at the 0.618 Fib retracement. After that 3 month candle closed in July, Nokia spent the next 6 months testing support. Bears were unable to close the next 2 candles below 40 RSI AND the 20 year trend line. The October 2020 3 month candle closed as a long legged doji on high volume indicating strong buyer support. This is a multitude of confluence that shows for the next 3 months at least, Nokia should have strong buying support.Now is time for perhaps one of the most interesting clues as far as Nokia's price action, the 6 month time frame.
The 6 month candle starting on January 2nd, 2020 is one of the strongest indicators that Nokia is soon to have some serious volatility.
It closed as a bullish hammer with very long tail and short upper shadow. This indicates buying support stepped in and held the line in a big way towards the end of the candle close. Volumes for this candle are the highest they have been since the giant hulk dildo starting in July of 2013.
The very next candle after this bullish hammer was a bearish spinning top doji- but was able to close WITHIN the body of the bullish hammer. This type of doji can indicate the beginning of a shift in sentiment, or a 'pause'. This 'pause' does sometimes precede a resumption of the prior trend. Considering the volumes in these 2 candles, Nokia is likely to experience serious volatility over the next 6 months. It is a very good sign though in my opinion that this doji candle closed within the body of the bullish hammer. The RSI however is pointing out a break of support, and subsequent confirmation of resistance. Nokia needs to break back above 45 RSI on this time frame in order to establish strong bullish bias.
**TLDR: Support is hodling but this is arguably the most important zone to decide Nokia's short, mid, and long term fate.
Immediate support levels: $3.80, $3.70, $3.50.
Lower support levels: $3.15, $2.44, and ALL-IN anything below that.
Immediate resistance levels: $4.30, $4.50, $5.
Higher resistance levels: $5.18, $6, $7.50.
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --1/21/22 Leap options activity-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I happened to find a website to check historical data on options volumes and open interest. The position I currently hold are $7 call contracts expiring on 1/21/2022, so I decided to take a look at the data for them.
I also checked the $10 call contracts with the same expiration as they currently have what seems to be the largest amount of open interest.
This is a short term screenshot of the volumes and open interest for the $7 call.
Between the end of December and January 4th, there were very slight fluctuations in the open interest, yet the volumes traded were above average.
Note that on January 5th and 6th, the volumes skyrocketed while open interest decreased. Strange considering the premium price of the options were on a slight upwards trend from that date. After January 6th, however, the the volume was mostly flat/average while the open interest significantly increased. January 15th, open interest skyrocketed. Interesting to note that this increase came after a significantly high volume day in shares.
ibb.co/ynRybwL
This is a longer term screenshot of the volumes and open interest for the $7 call. Unfortunately, without paying for a subscription this website only allows you to see historical data spanning roughly 3 months.
Still, this screenshot shows multiple significant trends in the options for this particular contract.
The first thing that obviously catches the eye is the enormous volume and drop in option premium price/open interest that happened right before November. On October 29th, Nokia released an earnings report. This particular report showed an expected earnings per share of $0.06, but the actual reported earnings per share were $0.04, which was a surprise of -$0.02 or -36.37%. As of the opening bell for trading, Nokia dropped by 18.99% in 1 hour, eventually bottoming out at $3.21 a few hours later after a 20.72% decline in share price. After this 'cleanse', the $7 call option mostly traded flat for another 12 days thereafter. On the 13th day, open interest began rising again. Currently, Nokia's $7 call 1/21/22 contract has an open interest of roughly 135,000 contracts.
ibb.co/PrMQRCK
This is a short term screenshot of the volumes and open interest for the $10 call.
Unlike the strange activity in the $7 call, the overall trend for the open interest in the $10 call has only been upwards since the 17th of December onwards. Volumes have mostly been flat up until the 14th when Nokia had a very high volume day in shares. Otherwise, open interest and volumes in this contract have not had anything major to really report on other than a steady increase in open interest.
ibb.co/chTTSdX
Anmerkung
This is a longer term screenshot of the volumes and open interest for the $10 call.This screenshot is quite interesting. There have been multiple high volume days for this option, but the one that specifically stands out was when the contract bottomed out at $0.08. From that point forward, open interest and volumes remained relatively flat. Notice that in the latter part of November, the high volume days preceeded a significant decline in the option premium price. From the peak option price premium of ~$0.16 however, the open interest only increased unlike what happened with the $7 call option on October 29th for earnings. The highest volume days for this contract in the timeline that I have to work with were, interestingly, the 14th and the 15th. This could signal another significant decline in premium price, or it could be a signal that Nokia's share price may be in the beginning stages of a rally. Considering historical data, history indicates that this **should** unfortunately be a signal for a drop in premium price. Whales love to mess with the noobs.
ibb.co/vzYht4n
This is a screenshot that represents the grand total of all options traded versus share price.
For months, the options volume and stock volume have remained relatively flat until the 14th and 15th.
Implied volatility as well as volumes are signaling there is likely to be a major move within the next few trading sessions.
ibb.co/MP2K1F6
**TLDR: Options Open Interest is skyrocketing. 7c has weird stuff going on but 10c is stronger than a held-in beer fart.
On the other hand, the amount of open interest in the $7 and $10 calls could very easily be used to create significant bearish options pressure.
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --1/20/23 Leap options activity-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
For these particular calls, the images are self-explanitory when compared to above.
This is a short term screenshot of the volumes and open interest for the $5 call.
ibb.co/fxWshcv
This is a longer term screenshot of the volumes and open interest for the $5 call.
ibb.co/Cb7j20V
This is a short term screenshot of the volumes and open interest for the $7 call.
ibb.co/Syzq64v
This is a long term screenshot of the volumes and open interest for the $7 call.
ibb.co/jDfnnKT
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -News-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Kinda serious.
T-Mobile announces 5 year, "multi-billion dollar agreement" with both Nokia and Ericsson.
"These multi-billion-dollar deals with both Ericsson and Nokia will continue to supercharge T-Mobile’s nationwide 5G network."
t-mobile.com/news/network/5g-best-coverage-ericsson-nokia
Then shit does get serious. Nokia partners with Google.
"Google Cloud and Nokia will jointly develop cloud-native 5G Core solutions for communications service providers and enterprise customers."
cloud.google.com/press-releases/2021/0114/google-cloud-nokia-telecommunications
Then, shit gets out of this world serious, literally. N A S A partners with Nokia to build the very first cell network on the moon. No big.
nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
Then, shit gets mars type serious. Nokia selected for U.S. Federal 5G Cybersecurity Project. This 5G project is through NIST - the National Institute of Standards and Technology, a U.S. Federal Government entity.
"Preparing a Secure Evolution to 5G"
Note that on the official government 5G security project page, Nokia stands alongside major, major, MAJOR names such as AT&T, Cisco, Dell, Intel, and T-Mobile:
ibb.co/M9zmvfH
nccoe.nist.gov/projects/building-blocks/5g-CYBERSECURITY
Anmerkung
More recent news articles / press releases - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Nokia press release stating 60+ commercial 5G deals.
nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/01/09/nokia-highlights-momentum-with-63-commercial-5g-deals/
Sweden's Tele2 picks Nokia for 5G core network.
reuters.com/article/us-nokia-tele2/swedens-tele2-picks-nokia-for-5g-core-network-idUSKBN29G0JP
Taiwan Mobile exclusively picks Nokia for 5G.
nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/06/29/nokia-wins-exclusive-taiwan-mobile-5g-deal/
Nokia partners with M1 for 5G standalone in Singapore.
finance.yahoo.com/news/nokia-nok-partners-m1-5g-134301276.html
**TLDR: According to the news, Nokia is quite literally going to the moon.
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Key observations from above news articles- (Fair warning, this is strictly plagiarized aka copy + pasted straight from above news sources.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Kevin Stine, **Chief** of the Applied Cybersecurity Division at **NIST**, said: “5G will touch every aspect of our lives and security must be integrated up front rather than an add-on element of 5G networks. We’re looking forward to working with our project collaborators such as Nokia to show 5G’s advanced standards based security features as well an architecture that leverages foundational security capabilities available in cloud technologies.”
Raghav Sahgal, President, Cloud and Network Services at Nokia, said: “Previous cellular technology generations have been industry-led whereas 5G development must evolve in collaboration with governments to ensure availability and access of secure trusted networks. The 5G Cybersecurity Project fills this role with a cross-section of government and industry collaborators on board. At Nokia, we embed security into every solution that we ship, and we are committed to enabling the secure shift to the cloud by working with government agencies and the industry to advance cybersecurity for 5G use cases that leverage both open and commercial components.”
About NIST NCCoE - National Institue of Standards and Technology
The NCCoE, a part of NIST, is a collaborative hub where industry organizations, government agencies, and academic institutions work together to address businesses’ most pressing cybersecurity issues. This public-private partnership enables creation of practical cybersecurity solutions for specific industries, as well as for broad, cross-sector technology challenges. Through consortia under CRADAs, including technology partners—from Fortune 50 market leaders to smaller companies specializing in information technology and operational technology security—the NCCoE applies standards and recommended practices to develop modular, easily adaptable example cybersecurity solutions by using commercially available technology. The NCCoE documents these example solutions in the NIST Special Publication 1800 series, which maps capabilities to the NIST Cybersecurity Framework and details the steps needed for another entity to re-create the example solution. The NCCoE was established in 2012 by NIST in partnership with the State of Maryland and Montgomery County, Maryland. Information is available at nccoe.nist.gov.
Taken from globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/01/14/2158714/0/en/Nokia-selected-for-U-S-Federal-5G-Cybersecurity-Project.html
**TLDR: Show me the charts, I'll tell you the news.
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Stock Rankings-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Zacks Ranking - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Do yourself a favor. GOOGLE "What is Zacks Ranking"
Zacks ranking rates a stock on a scale from 1-5. 1 Being a strong buy while 5 is a strong sell.
"The Zacks Rank is a short-term stock recommendation of 1-3 months that is based on analyst earnings estimate revisions. It is designed to weed out the companies with rising earnings estimates.
... Remember, the Zacks Rank is generated daily."
"People also ask: Is Zacks a good rank?"
"Since 1988, Zacks #1 Rank stocks have generated an annualized return of 25.67%, nearly three times better than the S&P 500's return of 10.79%. The Zacks Rank has also been very successful in telling investors which stocks to avoid. Since 1988, Zacks #5 Rank stocks have been flat.."
Zacks basically states that Nokia is worthwhile with solid fundamentals and ranks Nokia a 3, or "Hold".
To comprise this ranking, however, Zacks evaluates a stock on 4 different areas. Value, Growth, Momentum, and an averaged score of all 3.
This particular evaluation is graded like a report card in school: A, B, C, D, or the big fat red F.
As far as the average VGM score is concerned, Nokia gets an A:
ibb.co/C2q4W8n
ibb.co/6brw4k1
Anmerkung
As far as Nokia being ranked a 3, or "Hold" rating:"Zacks #3 Rank Stocks Can Be Perfectly Acceptable.
I bet that title attracted your attention. You most likely have heard us refer to stocks with a Zacks #1 Rank as being the “cream of the crop.” It is understandable why. These stocks represent the top 5% of all stocks that are covered by at least one analyst and are expected to experience the strongest earnings estimate revisions in the future."
zacks.com/stock-education/54/How-to-Use-Zacks-Rank-3--Hold-
I'll admit, I haven't looked into the above claim of #1 rankings hitting 25.67% annualized returns. I am only adding Zacks ranking here for analytical and historical purposes.
**TLDR: Zacks rank says to hold, as it could go up or down, but gives Nokia a "Grade A" rating for value, growth, and momentum potential.
Anmerkung
Morningstar - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Morningstar is another company that focuses on in-depth analysis of stocks for potential financial returns. Robinhood uses them if you are upgraded to Robinhood Gold which costs 5/month. Currently, Morningstar rates Nokia a "3" as well.
If you are not subscribed to Morningstar, you need a premium membership in order to see what they have to say about a given stock. Considering I am a Robinhood Gold customer I will share the important details of what they have to say, verbatim, straight from the Robinhood app itself. Prepare yourself though, this is a very long read.
-Fair Value
"We are lowering our fair value estimate to $4.50 per share, which represents a fiscal 2020 enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA* of 8 times.
Our forecast five-year revenue compound annual decline rate is 1% through 2024. We expect Nokia to be a key supplier of 5G network infrastructures being built out globally, expanding 4G capacity demand, and enterprise networks. Although we believe that CSP infrastructure spending may start to decelerate after building out 5G networks, we expect broader use cases for Nokia's equipment, software, and services within 5G and Internet of Things networks to support respectable growth beyond our explicit forecast.
We expect Nokia to expand its operating margin gradually over our forecast with mid- to high- single-digit margin by 2024. Drivers of the modest gain include Nokia correcting its 5G equipment costs, increasing software-based sales, and winning more enterprise networks. We model that gross margins will stay in the mid- to high-30% range as Nokia balances higher margin software with higher costing equipment. Nokia's focus on software-defined networking should expand its operating margins, and we believe software sales should accelerate as Internet of Things devices become integrated into 5G networks. We expect Nokia's technology business, with its stellar operating margins, to expand moderately as a result of licensing agreements with major 5G phone manufacturers, a wider array of industries signing 5G licensing deals, and by profiting from Nokia-branded smartphone royalties.
Nokia reports its financial results in Euros, and we use an exchange rate of EUR 0.85 per $1 (as of Oct. 29) to derive our ADR fair value estimate. There is a 1/1 ADR ratio to the local shares.
Anmerkung
-RiskWe give Nokia a high fair value estimate uncertainty rating. Although Nokia should remain a leader in the CSP supplier market, we expect fierce competition from Huawei, Ericsson, ZTE, Samsung, and Cisco to create a high level of risk. With a limited quantity of 5G contracts available, CSPs could force the 5G equipment manufacturers to create unprofitable deals. Because of lower entry barriers than antenna system hardware, there is also the possibility of software and service specialists vying for 5G network connectivity and optimization business. Cost-sensitive economies are expected to drag down selling prices as 5G propagates globally. Nokia could face competitors violating its patents***, issues receiving its due share of licensing fees, and expensive litigation proceedings. Possibly government regulations affecting infrastructure builds are other unknowns. In 2018, the United States and Australia barred their CSPs from using China-based ZTE and Huawei equipment during 5G build-outs, and it could be possible that nondomestic Chinese CSP equipment firms are excluded from entry into China and other markets.
Possibly the largest uncertainty is if the expected speed increases and connectivity promises of 5G **come to fruition. Nokia's strategy relies partially on industries embracing Internet of Things devices and demanding 5G connectivity. If companies cannot justify additional network costs due to the lack of productivity increases or additional feature set demand, Nokia and CSP equipment providers may face daunting headwinds. From a personal consumer perspective, users must upgrade to 5G plans for CSPs to justify their 5G infrastructure build-outs; if 4G is good enough for most users, then the 5G **revolution may be severely affected."
**TLDR: Morningstar believes that Nokia could go up or down, but seems to be quite pessimistic in some areas.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
** teehee
* EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. EBITDA margins provide investors a snapshot of short-term operational efficiency.
*** worldipreview.com/news/nokia-draws-first-blood-in-daimler-validity-battle-20587
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Social Media influence-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Social Media is by far my favorite trading 'indicator', because of how funny human behavior and psychology can be.
It is absolutely in my opinion one of the most underutilized tools a person can have in their analysis arsenal.
When you were a kid and someone told you "I bet you can't throw this rock farther than me!", what did you do?
Or how about as a kid, your closest friend/friends always told you that you'd never beat their high score in video games.
To this day, when someone or especially multiple people try to tell you that you cannot do/achieve something, what do you try to do?
Or how about today, where a very large Social Media sentiment is that Nokia is a complete waste of time?
The float of 5.6 billion outstanding shares is too high, there's absolutely no way the price can move!
Or what about all the people that had too strong of hands and didn't cut their losses much earlier on?
All those people trashing Nokia's name? Saying they can't do something? They won't move? Flatter than a pancake?
I have noticed that within the past few weeks, there has been a significant uptick in posts regarding Nokia on the first and third largest investing forums Reddit has. Their names? /r/Wallstreetbets and /r/Stocks.
Currently, /r/Wallstreetbets has the largest following of 1.9 million members, /r/Investing comes in 2nd at 1.3 million members, and the third largest investing forum on Reddit is /r/Stocks and it has 1.1 million members.
Take a look around on Wallstreetbets and you will quickly realize that forum can legitimately move the market. No joke.
Teh stocks forum is far more conservative than the WSB one, yet, Nokia is still popping up quite frequently these past couple weeks in both.
Interesting to note however that the second biggest investing forum on Reddit is /r/Investing, and it has ZERO posts about Nokia since 12/08/20. That post didn't even garner a single reply. Hmm.. Weird.
Do yourself a favor. Go into some of these older posts and read the comments. Notice anything?
reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=nokia&restrict_sr=1&sort=relevance&t=year
reddit.com/r/stocks/search?q=nokia&restrict_sr=1&sort=relevance&t=year
Anmerkung
Then, read these newer ones.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kz5i7g/another_exphone_company_nokia_the_sleeping_giant/
reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/kyltua/is_nokia_a_good_long_term_buy_current_market/
reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ky28jf/its_starting_nokia_is_coming_back_bb_is_good_but/
reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/kyqn33/i_cant_be_the_only_one_who_sees_the_potential_in/
reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kybiy3/nokia_nok_is_going_to_be_moving_quick_next_week/
reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kx6kws/nok_invest_in_the_future/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kx6kws/nok_invest_in_the_future/
"Nothing can honestly move NOK out of the 4-4.25 range unfourt. Too big and too old."
"Nokia doesn’t move dude, let alone QUICKLY HAHAHA"
"NOKIA is dogshit held that trashbag for years sold for a small loss."
"Nice try but NOK is a flaming POS. You can’t pump it. Held it for 6 years. POS"
"Nokia has a staggering 5.32B free float! Not quite easy for this monster to move"
"This fat boy ain’t moving (yet)"
"I bought some $5 and $7 calls for 2023 so i hope you're right, with 5 billion float it'll probably never get there but it wasn't too expensive for some lottery tickets"
Anmerkung
What is my point here? What angle am I getting at? H Y P E. How do you create serious hype/FOMO for a stock in todays world? It needs some sort of 'reputation'. A very negative one is best. Why?Nokia is known for having a giant outstanding share supply. They're known for being in a decades long downtrend. They're known for not being worth investing in, plain and simple.
So, back to human behavior. If you look back at the past year ish or so of comments on social media regarding Nokia, the stock has built quite the negative reputation.
You NEVER hear about Nokia. You never see it in the news. You never hear its name anymore other than when people reminisce of the good old days- where products were ackshually built to last!
You don't see the Nokia brand anywhere anymore.. Its name doesn't show up on TV, or in the newspaper, or on ticker news feeds, nothing. Nowhere. Nada. Zilch.
What would happen if, say, Nokia suddenly had a +50% day out of nowhere? EVERYONE who ever doubted Nokia or even heard their name are quickly reminded that they are still alive.
These people are seemingly so brainwashed at this point that Nokia is not a worthwhile investment, they don't even bother. Even though it just rocketed 50%. Meh, just a dead cat bounce.
Nah, they'll stay out and chase their gains in PLTR or GME or BB or whatever the current meme stocks are for the day.
Next day, Nokia rockets again while maybe other meme/blue chip stocks and/or indexes are flat or negative. See where I'm going with this here?
THE very M O M E N T Nokia rips a hulk dildo on the chart, everyone and their mother is going to know about it.
Meh, just a dead cat bounce. Right guys? ...Right?
Then it goes up. Again. While a lot of people including I/you were waiting for a pullback.
See where I'm going with this here?
STRICTLY because of Nokia's reputation and the extreme negative sentiment surrounding it in Social Media, this is a perfect play.
When it finally rips loose, everyone and their brother is going to be waiting for a pullback. What if it doesn't come soon enough?
Imagine the FOMO.
A multi decade long downtrend is clearly reversing. You can see it in the chart, trend lines, and in the sentiment. This was rock bottom.
Imagine the FOMO.
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Google Trends-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Google Trends can be a fun 'indicator' of sorts to use. It doesn't necessarily mean anything, BUT, it can yield an interesting metric.
How outright BORING something is or isn't.
How UNDERAPPRECIATED something is or isn't.
How many people would choose to talk about anything BUT ... that.
How .. dare I say, **undervalued** something is? Or how popular something is? lolNokia.
When you think of Nokia, what is the first thing you think of? For me, it is those damn 3310 phone models. The ones that just .. wouldn't die. No matter what you did to them.
At this point, Nokia has apparently upgraded its appetite. Let's face it. In todays world of **planned obsolescence** especially in the smartphone world, Nokia doesn't stand a chance because of how many competitors it has!
I won't name names here even though I should, but there are many a big name phone manufacturer that .. !ahem!
use sweat shops and labor camps to make 'high tier' phones.
And guess what? Those phones are PURPOSELY built to NOT LAST. BY DESIGN.
You pay $1,500 for a phone that will last you how long? Find a 3310 somewhere. I bet it still works today. Maybe not. Maybe you bought one from a crappy person. idk. But I'd bet if well taken care of, one of those would still work.
to this very day.
There's one company that is especially guilty of outsourcing this type of production and the people they take advantage of is .. wrong. Welcome to the USA I guess.
Okay, before I piss off even more people than I apparently already have, I'll shut up on this subject.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Anmerkung
-This is a 17 year chart from Google Trends.12/2011 - 01/11. Nokia absolutely TANKS in relevance. I wonder why?
01/2016. Nokia suddenly for the most part flatlines after a decent drop.
If we compare this to a heart beat monitor, Nokia's relevancy is [still] legit dead.
Dead. Not coming back. Can't start, won't start, NOStart. OD'D and narcan can't save it.
ibb.co/pX4dyNZ
My dude BS says hi! 8D
cryptoandchill.tips/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Bart-Pattern.png
1/27/2011 Nokia beat expectations by 6.7%! Therefore, it must go DOWN, amirite? >:(
ibb.co/y4BYwFX
From that 6.7% positive earnings report? Nokia **tanks**, AGAIN, only this time -84.72%. Yep. You saw that right.
I wonder if the bear flag had anything to do with it, though?
Hmmm.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-This is a yearly chart from Google Trends.
It's flatter than The Earth. Nothing to see here, folks. BUT WAIT, IT FUGGIN QUADRUPLE BOTDUMBED. kek.
Nothing to see here, folks.
ibb.co/Xpt0KQb
Anmerkung
-This is a weekly chart from Google Trends.Eureka! We have something to report, kinda!
ibb.co/bPSq67Y
ibb.co/DMKj0jH
1/15/21 Nokia spikes on the Google Trends weekly chart at 10 PM. weird.
Even weirder, since I started updating this portion of this DD, Texas and Kentucky have joined the NokiTrain!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-The Float Fallacy- Last but not least ;D
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Lastly, I would just like to address the echo chambered and (in MY opinion) incorrect opinion of how Nokia cannot move well or quickly in price because of what I will call "The Float Fallacy."
Nokia has a grand total of 5.6 billion shares that make up the company, otherwise known as "The Float". Nokia has a market cap currently of 22.1B.
That means when you multiply the total supply of tradable shares to how much money they each are trading for, you get the total overall valuation of a company.
The majority opinion everywhere on Nokia above all else, is that it cannot move due to its float size. Essentially, people are arguing that you'd need to buy substantially more shares
in order to move the price than you would a different company. While this is generally true, the AMOUNT OF MONEY TRADED STAYS THE SAME.
To give you an idea of why the float doesn't matter, we can compare Nokia's market cap to the market cap sizes and share values of other competitors.
First example I will use is Ericsson. Ericsson has a market cap of 36.13B. Their share price is currently $11.76. Now, again, think about the MONEY, not the shares.
Say I wanted to invest $100 in a given stock. I could buy 8.5 shares in total of Ericsson. Or, I could get 24.5 shares of Nokia for THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY.
What sounds more appealing to you? Owning 8.5 shares in a company, or nearly 3 times as much?
So let's compare market cap sizes with a few competitors to see just how much growth potential Nokia truly has.
We will just use the major companies listed alongside Nokia on the U.S. Federal 5G Cybersecurity Project.
Anmerkung
AT&TMarket cap: 207.87B
Share price: $29.17
Float: 7.13B
Cisco
Market cap: 191.97B
Share price: $45.43
Float: 4.22B
Dell
Market cap: 55.68B
Share price: $74.26
Float: 0.77B
Intel
Market cap: 235.96B
Share price: $57.58
Float: 4.1B
T-Mobile
Market cap: 157.98B
Share price: $127.28
Float: 1.24B
These figures show the valuation that Nokia can and will eventually hit.
The only real negative effect of having 5.6 billion outstanding shares is that it can take a while for them to become more widely dispersed rather than overconcentrated.
Meaning a very select few absurdly rich people can and have been suppressing the price. The more they do it though, the more insane opportunities it gives you. That's the entire point.
So, in a way, float does matter, but that is EXACTLY WHY this is such a winning proposition. The more shares WE buy, the less THEY have and can control.
Anmerkung
anddd, I'm done. Finally.John, I just wanna help people too. Seems like I'm apparently doing it wrong but idk.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. What is written in its entirety in this idea is my opinion - specifically, MY thoughts on a chart. That does not make me correct on the above informations.
I only started 'trading' a little over 4 years ago - and started 'trading' stocks in the beginning of 2020.
DYOR.
youtube.com/watch?v=N2qwXdA7K80
Anmerkung
There was a time in my life back in April of 2018 when Bitcoin was sitting at ~6.5k or so. I was less than 6 months into my 'trading journey' at that point.Long story short, ALL sentiment and social media was pointing south- 2k, 1.5k, etc. everyone was bearish. As a freshman, I posted a thread regarding the fact that I thought Bitcoin was actually about to make a major move north. Even nailed the exact bottom to within less money than it takes to buy 2 cheeseburgers at McDonalds.
Anyway, I got a ton of hateful comments, telling me I was retarded and had no idea what I was doing (which was and still is true lmao) .. I was so positive on that call that I attempted to overdraw my bank account by 15k. (Thank God that didn't work..) Lo and behold, on April 12th, corn M O O N E D.
I only felt that way one other time since, and it was Bitcoin again, and it was when it reversed from ~3.5k:
This is the 3rd time ever I've felt this strongly. It makes me hella nervous, but I am absolutely balls deep in Nokia right now.
I will go all in, immediately, if it drops back below the $3.7 support.
Anmerkung
4.5c 2/12 OIibb.co/MD2f4Jz
7c 1/21/22 OI
ibb.co/4JxWJLL
10c 1/21/22 OI
ibb.co/n1NrVXX
youtube.com/watch?v=HfE1Ip2wot4
Anmerkung
Notice anything?Anmerkung
Anmerkung
K.i.s.s.Anmerkung
Anmerkung
Anmerkung
Anmerkung
Anmerkung
Hmmm.
Anmerkung
So I just realized something.That 20 year trend line?
From what I have learned and experienced, the 'real' Inverted Head and Shoulders patterns have low volume basically every time in the right shoulder. I was wondering why the 'recent' potential Inverted Head and Shoulders patterns had high volume in the right shoulder... Then it hit me.
Inception. Patterns within a pattern.
It's been building since July 23rd, 2012........
10c 2022 update-
One day ago:
ibb.co/n1NrVXX
Today:
ibb.co/9rNPcxX
Another *very* high volume day with yet again more opened interest.
waow.
I'm not sure how long it will take, but when it happens, it's going to be spectacular.
Anmerkung
Potential bearish ascending wedge spotted.
Anmerkung
I'm just here so I won't get fired....and maybe help some people along teh way.
Anmerkung
Update 1/25/21.Today was the single highest share volume day since 1/11/2013.
Nokia opened on a gap at $4.54 and closed today at $4.85 after an intraday high of $4.918, but after hours has so far hit as high as $5.34.
Nokia's 52 week high was $5.14 set on 08/04/2020 which means it has technically been beaten, but note that was during normal trading hours.
Notice in this screenshot, however, that after that high volume day on 1/11/2013, Nokia dropped. Hard.
Not saying that will happen again, but their Earnings Report is coming out on 2/4/2021, so tread carefully. I am personally *very* bullish bias.
As of this update, Nokia is holding at $5.31 in after hours after hitting a high so far of $5.34.
Today has marked one week since I posted the first screenshots of the $7 and $10 call volumes for the 1/21/22 expiration date, so I thought I'd throw out an update. Volumes and price changes in options today were extraordinary, and made prior volumes seem PUNY by comparison in these screenshots:
7c, latest update before today:
ibb.co/4JxWJLL
7c, updated today:
ibb.co/qpM9f1X
10c, latest update before today:
ibb.co/9rNPcxX
10c, updated today:
ibb.co/gDtjy51
hidadsoup
Anmerkung
Well, this has been quite the day.From the low today of $4.87 to the high today of $9.79, Nokia had a 101.3% rise.
Took out double my initial investment and now .. well, someone knows but it ain't me.
Still targeting $11.75 and once I see that price point I am pulling out half of my position.
guh already
Anmerkung
By far, this is the absolute dumbest candle I have ever seen in trading.Ever.
Gotta love IT
Anmerkung
How much higher can it go?Anmerkung
Prior to launch:ibb.co/C2q4W8n
Post launch:
ibb.co/BtVDL1X
B, B, B, A
B, B, D, B?
lolwut
Nokia has a 101.3% *temporary* rise, which unfortunately closes on the weekly as one of the craziest hammers I have ever seen, and Nokia apparently gets a 'D' for momentum from Zacks after having had a B while it was doing ... nothing. The overall VGM score also loses a point, from A to now B.
weird!
Anmerkung
IF this ascending triangle is legit, Nokia is currently holding support directly on the prior resistance. IF this is an ascending triangle and IF this can hold support, next week could see another substantial break upwards.I'm not holding my breath on this on and am currently expecting the worst considering how ugly the chart just got in a matter of one week, but we'll see.
When checking the options activity for short and long term, OI has not changed and volume has basically flat lined. I expect a major move next week, but please remember I am not a financial advisor and just an amateur.
Anmerkung
Keep in mind, there is a meme gap from $4.20 that may be filled first.Maybe not.
...someone knows but it ain't me.
Anmerkung
2/12 5c 38,753 OI 344b/170a - $0.03/$0.04ibb.co/r65p5bH
2/19 5c 89,908 OI 186b/332a - $0.07/$0.08
ibb.co/xXgzSp7
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2/12 10c 27,159 OI 0b/37a - $0.01/$0.02
ibb.co/F6mbVYp
2/19 10c 72,146 OI 498b/306a - $0.01/$0.02
ibb.co/Jn2Xcnm
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2/12
19C 5,500 OI 0b/329a - $0.00/$0.01ibb.co/JB0qcJ4
2/19
19C 7,313 OI 169b/100a - $0.01/$0.02ibb.co/df8ny75
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Some seriously strange irregularities I am noticing in the list/graphs.
The $19 calls have a weird spike in IV but the rest I'll list here later depending what happens in the next few weeks.
:D
Anmerkung
Original ranking:ibb.co/C2q4W8n
Second update ranking:
ibb.co/BtVDL1X
Todays ranking:
ibb.co/SdxBh4B
Zack's ranking is all over the place.
As of the latest ranking, Zack's has downgraded Nokia to a '4', or sell, yet the Growth, Momentum, and VGA scores have increased.
Yet again, weird!
Anmerkung
Oh yeah, and one last thing.SEE!
Anmerkung
Last but not least, the only thing I'm worried about right now:
I have a stupendously irresponsible amount of $10 calls for 2/19.
My chart/sentiment analysis tells me that price point or somewhere close to it is very possible by that date, though very low chance.
My rent for this month is in this trade.
If I am wrong, I will have to liquidate my entire position.
I believe in MY analysis.
Anmerkung
This is the RSI in the daily time frame.
The earliest beginning trend line on the tops is from the end of July 2018.
The highest trend line on the tops is from June 2020.
The lower support trend line is from the end of October 2019.
The bubbles I have highlighted in this screenshot show the confluence of reactions while interacting with said trend lines.
Notice how strong the reactions to these specific trend lines are.
As far as the RSI is concerned, Nokia is showing that it has a habit of making severely overextended moves, both downwards and upwards.
What I am specifically pointing out here is that I strongly believe Nokia has well overextended to the downside from the rally that occurred on 01/27/2021.
The support trend line and both of the resistance trend lines that my novice ass has spotted are showing convergence, which has an apex of somewhere around April 2021. Considering Nokia has been in a multi decade downtrend, there is obviously a strong opinion that its bear market is not going to end any time soon.
Let us take a look at the 4 hour. When zoomed in to this time frame, the large reactions to these trend lines become much more apparent.
The short term moves that happen after ineracting with these trend lines are VIOLENT.
Ever since the rally on 1/27, Nokia has attempted multiple times to break back above these trend lines.
Currently, Nokia resides below all 3 of them. Notice right at the start of 2021 however, what has happened when Nokia gets below these trend lines.
PINKY!
If we draw a trend line that interacts with the lows of being below those 3 trend lines, we have .. an interesting discovery!
Nokia is ... R I G H T T H E R E. big move, LLC. Big, big, big move. The question is, to which side..?
Another set of 4h trend lines I'd like to point out.
These 4h trend lines have already converged. Nokia is below both of them.
Notice that Nokia attempted multiple times to stay above 50 RSI on this time frame. Yet, it couldn't!
Hmmm.
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -OPTIONS
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2/12 $5 call
ibb.co/Zd97XtJ
2/19 $5 call
ibb.co/T8ns4NR
Open interest continues to climb for these short term, low strike options, yet the price is falling hard. wut
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2/12 $10 call
ibb.co/py6f2cV
2/19 $10 call
ibb.co/hWNwFMj
No real changes here, although implied volatility seems to be climbing for the 2/12's.
WHOOP DEE DOO
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2/12 $19 call
ibb.co/4JWvb90
2/19 $19 call
ibb.co/5j1cjJX
No real changes here either. Although, in my last update, I said this:
"Some seriously strange irregularities I am noticing in the list/graphs.
The $19 calls have a weird spike in IV but the rest I'll list here later depending what happens in the next few weeks."
IV suddenly spiked downwards on the 2/12's. WEIRD.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2/12 $4 call
ibb.co/hRk5FM6
2/19 $4 call
ibb.co/Ykh1dsR
Open interest continues to rise in both of these short term options.
The volume for the 2/12 $4 call however has stayed pretty high.
Not quite sure why the volume is so high and OI continues to increase when there is very little time left on these options.
They're obviously ITM, but there's only 2 days left on the 2/12's...
Hmmm.
Anmerkung
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Zacks
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Original ranking:
ibb.co/C2q4W8n
Second update ranking:
ibb.co/BtVDL1X
Third update ranking:
ibb.co/SdxBh4B
Today:
ibb.co/kqzRHQL
The last update prior to this one had Nokia at a "4", or sell ranking, with a "B" for value, "A" for growth, "B" for momentum, and "A" for VGM.
Today, Zacks lists a "3", or hold ranking, with a "A" or value, "A" for growth, "D" for momentum, and "A" for VGM.
Value has gone from a B to an A, and momentum has gone from a B to a D.
Can you please make up your mind and STICK TO IT!?
(owait dont do that or Theta Gang will shove a stick up your ass)
In conclusion, lots of weird signals here.
Nokias price has been falling, Zacks rank is all over the place, options are showing short term increases in low strikes even though the price is falling. There is still substantial OI in OTM options, and overall this shit is W E I R D.
I swear there is a monster move coming.
Will it hit before Theta Gang takes my irresponsible, rent money, 2/19 premiums?
FIND OUT on the next espide of 'whenever I get the fuck out of bed from depression sleeping'
xd
Anmerkung
By the way.Yes, these updates are strongly bias to the bullish side.
I recognize that.
That is because I don't believe in fug all anymore, but I do (barely) believe in myself and my chart analytical skills.
An absolute monster move is coming, and I do believe it will be to the upside. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. The only question I have right now is will it be before 2/19?
Anmerkung
youtube.com/watch?v=31ZjnrHR8EAI am A GOD you dull creature!
Anmerkung
'god'Anmerkung
Top pink trend line is from BEFORE 2014.
Black trend line is the 2 month trend line shown earlier here:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I'd like to turn your attention to this:
The blue support line in the RSI is from November of 2019.
At the beginning of 2021, this support line converged with the 2 month trend line dating all the way back to 2006.
Shortly thereafter, it has now converged with every single resistance trend line I've been able to find in the RSI.
Technically speaking, this insinuates M A S S I V E buying support.
The LAST TIME Nokia touched this support trend line caused the launch to $8.81/$9.79 shortly thereafter.
Currently, Nokia is only ~10 cents away from touching it again.
The candle for today closed as a bearish hammer with a very long wick to the downside, AFTER Nokia touched that trend line.
Nokia not only touched the blue support trend line, but it also CLOSED ABOVE the red resistance trend line.
This red resistance trend line has caused SERIOUS downside on 3 different occasions after being tested.
BUT. Right before 2021, the blue support trend line finally held, after being tested on 4 different occasions.
I sincerely wish I could describe better what I am seeing right now.
Nokia.
is.
about.
to.
M O O N.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Anmerkung
And now for an update on ... sigh, Zack's Ranking, which has been ALL OVER THE PLACE.Since I have been keeping an eye on it, the "Momentum" scores have been the ones that stood out most to me.
Nokia has had a "D" rating on at least 2 or 3 different occasions so far but usually quickly go back to a "B" rating.
For the first time since I started watching the Zack's Ranking for Nokia, EVERYTHING including "Value" gets an A.
4 Star "A" rating INCLUDING "Momentum" AND "Value". For the first time ... EVER? I think.
Could be wrong on that considering I haven't been watching the Zack's Ranking until recently.
Still, the very first Zack's Ranking score I recorded was roughly a month ago.
In chronological order, here are the past ranking scores along with today at the bottom:
ibb.co/C2q4W8n
ibb.co/BtVDL1X
ibb.co/SdxBh4B
ibb.co/kqzRHQL
ibb.co/7kTCQqs
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Keep an eye out for price action prior to Capital Markets Day on 3/18:
"Choosing the venue, opportunity for site visits
A capital markets day can be held at the head office or any other venue, but as a capital markets day often has the intention to create a better and deeper understanding of parts of the business, many companies choose to take the investors and analysts on a site visit.
In addition to the presentations that are given during the capital markets day, the site visit often includes a tour of the plant, facilities or location at which the meeting is held. When abroad, site visits can be spread over more than one day.
Inviting analysts and investors
A capital markets day will typically be announced in advance, and the company can choose to invite both analysts and investors. Generally, investors are also invited to a a capital markets day , whereas when the company only plans to invite sell-side analysts it will be called an analyst day. Many larger companies hold a capital markets day annually, and webcast this through their website. It is common practice to post the (slides of the) presentations given on the website."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Anmerkung
This will be my last update until a serious movement occurs, considering price action hasn't exactly inspired much confidence.For what it's worth, I still think my absurdly reckless 2/19 $10 calls could potentially make a comeback.
I'm THAT confident.
In conclusion, I just want to again say, I think Nokia is about to M A R S.
The chart doesn't lie, but big money has made quite the effort since that stratospheric rise to make it seem like it.
I ain't buying that bullshit.
I'm buying Nokia calls.
Why hit the stratosphere when you can launch entirely out of the solar system?
Get ready. I feel it in muh bones.
Anmerkung
and if I'm wrong?Well, I'll still be poor I guess.
Not like I'm not used to it anyway.
>:|
GL friends.
Anmerkung
I'll leave you with this.Anmerkung
Today marks 1 year since I posted my original idea on Nokia seen here:So, hell, why not make an update. This update will be mainly chart-based, and not of fundamental nature.
Monthly.
Bi-Weekly.
Weekly.
Daily. Note what happened when the daily held support on the mid-line of this channel.
Even more interesting when we take a look at the confluence in the RSI.
The channel you see in the RSI is something I just happened to notice not long ago.
Multiple ways these price/RSI channels can be drawn, but this one seems to have the most recent correlation with price.
One last thing in the RSI. On the bi-weekly time frame, there is also a symmetrical triangle.
Up or down, I suspect a very strong movement within the next 2-3 weeks, tops. Possibly as soon as this week.
If not, mid May is the absolute latest that I see Nokia making an enormous movement.
As far as social media is concerned, Nokia currently sits in 6th place as the most mentioned ticker on the big investment boards of Reddit. The top10 mentioned tickers one Reddit currently are:
1) GameStop (lol)
2) AMC
3) Palantir Technologies
4) Marriott International
5) Tesla
6) Nokia
7) New York Times Company
8) ProShares UltraPro QQQ
9) Thomson Reuters Corp
10) FactSet Research Systems
Did I mention Nokia just won an undisclosed contract with ATT? (This is most definitely not priced in, along with likely much of Nokia's other recent news releases, but we'll see.)
Not much of an update here, but Nokia is very, very close to a very big move.
In case of downside, support can be found at:
$3.8
$3.4 - $3.5
$2.8
$2.4
Which way does she go, George?
Anmerkung
To post another DD on WSB or not to post another DD on WSB.That is the question.
Anyway...
HELSINKI!
Ironically, I thought the United States was suppressing the price. wh00pz.
Anmerkung
To be clear, what I'm saying here is this:*IF* the current low doesn't break, Finland's old tried and true saying of "Nokia always disappoints" will very, very soon become null and void.
Pekka, whatchu gonna do when 4/8 comes for you!?
Anmerkung
Arguably one of the most bullish things for Nokia that I have seen yet.Today, Zacks upgrades Nokia to a "2" rating, or buy, from its previous rating of "3" or hold. They also outline that Nokia is undervalued.
nasdaq.com/articles/is-nokia-nok-stock-undervalued-right-now-2021-04-06
ibb.co/3rMKwMn
This should be interesting, considering this comes out 2 days prior to the Annual meeting for Nokia scheduled this Thursday, 4/8/21.
Anmerkung
"...we can clearly see that NOK is an impressive value stock right now."Anmerkung
Oh, by the way.50/100 golden cross on the weekly potentially looming.
A LOT of confluence here towards a *very* bullish bias.
It IS Nokia, though.
Gas Whale See.
Anmerkung
The meme pump of January 27th makes a lot more sense now.damnit
Anmerkung
twitter.com/MikeSievert/status/1379086530304602117hmmm
Anmerkung
Yesterday there was a large amount of volume in the 1/20/23 $5 call options for Nokia. Also, a fairly noteworthy increase in OI.ibb.co/1r85HYL
Anmerkung
OI for tomorrow, 4/9/21 and the next expiration of 4/16/21.Tomorrow has nothing worth noting, but 4/16 is interesting.
$10 call options are the 2nd highest amount of open interest for this expiration?
-.-
ibb.co/wRq1hwn
Anmerkung
Last week 4/16 Options OIibb.co/wRq1hwn
This week 4/16 Options OI
ibb.co/s6fxGNx
$4 calls have dipped in OI a bit.
$4.5 calls however have grown substantially from 21,913 OI to 28,199, marking a nearly 29% increase.
Other than the fairly large increase in the $4.5 call OI there isn't really anything significant to report today.
I did, however, look into some Fib numbers for upwards targets. I firmly believe that Nokia will not be trading in this range for much longer. The hardest part is trying to figure out the timeline for an increase in share price (should a floor actually have been found now at $4), with overall targets being another significantly difficult aspect. Ironically, the area of trading I suffer most in aside from overall trade MANAGEMENT and greed, are targets. Of the few real trades I've actually won in my 'career', I have always *significantly* underestimated the potential highs of them. Therefore, I am looking for a strong amount of confluence utilizing basic support and resistance, Fib ratios, and divergences in indicators.
With Fibs, I measured from the ATH, the bounce after ATH profit taking, and extensions of the large rise Nokia had back in January. This is the result:
The most notable areas of significant confluence are located at around $11.2, and $16. Therefore these will be the first targets I am looking for to take a large amount of profit from my position. Considering the amount of time that Nokia has been in downtrend, I am suspecting that whatever catalyst takes Nokia upwards will get it to one or both of these targets (POSSIBLY higher to the $22-$23 region but unlikely) *very* quickly. I suspect that the ~$11 area could be a consolidation followed by a sharp 5th wave up to $16 but there are no guarantees.
I am still keeping in mind the potential bearish scenarios, but I feel very firmly the floor has been found at between $3.75 and $4. Realistically, supports are pretty easy to figure out below $3.75 anyway. I have already listed them in previous updates.
Anmerkung
dogelol
Anmerkung
Interesting times ahead.Volumes are absolutely abysmal.
Option chain says from here on out the call:put ratio is insanely bullish bias.
Price action is noisy, ranging between $4 and $4.20.
Chart price trends + rsi have recently *many times* successfully tested support.
Premiums for OTM LEAP call contracts in the past month have gotten absolutely destroyed yet OI has on average risen throughout all.
Social media negative sentiment outweighs the positive in this asset by minimum 10:1.
Nokia is now once again no longer being talked about. AT ALL.
I have been watching the conversations surrounding Nokia very closely on Reddit and the amount of conversations regarding it has utterly fallen off a cliff. All of the things I have noted here and many many more are almost exactly what transpired leading up to the January 27th spike.
I am *stupidly* bullish on Nokia right now. I just pray I can hold on to my current position long enough to see it come to fruition.
Make absolutely NO MISTAKE, when Nokia finally breaks the $4.5/$5 zone again with the same kind of authority as January, it will be a sight to behold. Finns are going to have to come up with a new saying about Nokia, rather than "Nokia will always let you down." By my guess, it's going to happen sooner than later, but then again I have been saying that for the past like, 5 months. l0l
FUK. COME ON NOKIA
Anmerkung
BTW.This is a potential scenario, and according to what I'm seeing, unfortunately has a pretty high chance. Especially considering Nokia is riding the absolute shit out of a weekly support/bear flag support trend line.
Anmerkung
finance.yahoo.com/options/highest-open-interest/Remember above where I stated "Premiums for OTM LEAP call contracts in the past month have gotten absolutely destroyed yet OI has on average risen throughout all" ?
I have been watching the highest open interest screener on Yahoo for a good few months now. For the past month or two, ish, Nokia has had 5 of the highest open interest for calls in the top 15 on Yahoo.
As of today, Nokia now has 5 of the highest open interest for calls in the top 11.
Each of these contracts have had very significant dips in premium price the past month or so, yet the open interest has done nothing but go up overall.
ibb.co/DCzGmy8
Interesting.
Anmerkung
A few noteworthy observations here.
First and foremost, the 50+100 week moving averages are very close to crossing.
In the past 6 years, this has only happened twice, but a subsequent triple top destroyed the building bullish momentum.
The RSI on the weekly is holding against a bi-weekly 'triangular' resistance which is shown below.
The MACD on the weekly has just barely broken above the zero line again.
Bi-weekly RSI. Barely above 50 RSI but did manage to hold the support of this 'triangle'.
On the bi-weekly time frame, the 9 and 25 moving averages are attempting a cross above the 50 moving average. Price is just barely below the 50 moving average for this time frame.
All in all, price action is still showing neutral signs, but fundamentals and open interest for options is showing a much different story.
Let's see what next week brings.
Anmerkung
Earnings today.
0.01 EPS expected, 0.07 result.
+375% in operating profit YoY.
44% of Nokia's market cap is in cash.
Excellent result.
+11.19% on the day, but unfortunately, that's still a yawn from me.
Nokia needs to break above $5 with authority. Until then, same old song and dance.
Anmerkung
youtu.be/W90V_DyPJTs?t=307"...What's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view that it's important to create a new truth to develop a fiction..."
Cramer, are YOU the one accumulating Nokia and making it barcode until volume shows up? Or maybe one of your old hedge fund buddies? Hmm?
youtu.be/W90V_DyPJTs?t=364
"...I think it's important for people to recognize that the way the market really works is to, is to have that nexus of hit the brokerage houses with a series of orders that can push it down, then leak it to the press, um, and then get it on CNBC. That's also very important. And then you have a kind of a vicious cycle down, and it's a pretty good game..."
youtu.be/4GnOEizsEfk?t=19
"...Look at Nokia, okay. Nokia is truly awful, and it's been up now for 2 days..." (Listen very carefully after he says 2 days. "I buy no.. NOKIA, if I say that, Nokia should become a meme stock any minute..." Hmm. Did he say should or could?
Okay. I want to make this unmistakably clear. This is the very same person who GOT CAUGHT RED HANDED, *apparently without repercussions*, saying "...What's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful..."
People can and do change, BUT, a lot of people can argue that he may or may not be still in that 'hedge fund mode'.
youtu.be/4GnOEizsEfk?t=40
Look, Baldy. $6? Try $30 or higher. Did you see the operating profit change YoY alone that they're now working with?
Might also want to consider Nokia having 44% of their entire fucking market cap in cash. That means when you are buying Nokia at the closing price Friday of $4.68, you're actually only paying $2.62 for the actual stock itself. The other $2.059 that you're paying for the stock is new, potentially very profitable opportunities Nokia can generate with their giant pile of reserve money. Maybe a buyback? More R&D? Maybe an acquisition of a semi-related company like GSAT, which is currently valued at around 2.14B? The fact that they (as of earnings) have nearly HALF of their ENTIRE market cap in cash means they've got a VERY underestimated amount of 'firepower' that can continue to grow the company.
A company that has been around since 1865, has restructured many different times, and still hasn't sold out yet? That's trash? Okay, Creamer.
Source videos are fairly obvious but here they are without time stamps:
youtu.be/W90V_DyPJTs
youtu.be/4GnOEizsEfk
Anmerkung
I just want to say thank you, Baldy, for giving me roughly 30 ish minutes of passion besides losing in IgnorantAnmerkung
ibb.co/PtZJxDbibb.co/JKPHzwP
Here we have the options chain for Nokia for 6/18 expiry, and 1/22 and 1/23 expiry.
I have noticed recently the $10 calls for 1/21/22 have gone from a high of 364,000 contracts to as of today, 356,000.
Not a huge difference. Oddly, however, $7 call OI for that same expiration have gone up during the same time frame.
What IS noteworthy here, however, is how many open contracts there are in total for the 6/18 expiration.
Specifically, the $10 calls. It's actually mindblowing.
The 1/21/22 expiration date has 356,000 open contracts.
The 6/18/21 expiration date has 96,000 open contracts.
27% of the contracts expiring in January for the same strike expire in 1 month and 13 days from today. what?
I'm going to take a pretty big stab in the dark here. IF Nokia can test and break the $5 USD barrier with volume any time soon, I think the 6/18 $10 strikes are gonna get paid. If Nokia continues sideways for much longer here, however, I think those 6/18's are a trap to get people to FOMO. MIGHT be hedges but I doubt it.
There are some remarkably bullish factors to point out on the charts right now, but the main one I'd like to focus on is a bull flag on the 3d time frame for both the Helsinki and NYSE exchanges. Forgive me for the color diarrhea but I'm going to switch back for a second to my old school charting colors.
Helsinki looks by far the cleanest:
NYSE:
These bull flags are *clean*. Textbook, even. That's kinda scary. I won't bother to put any examples here cause it doesn't really matter, but Nokia has a long standing habit of breaking down from bull flags. DARE I say this, damnit, but "this time is different?™" The difference this time however is that there seems to be a very obvious ascending triangle that has formed over the past year ish. I don't think I've ever seen a legit ascending triangle go all the way to the apex before a large breakout, and if this one is legit, it will happen within a week or two tops in my opinion. I did state in earlier updates that May would be roughly the time for a large move to the upside IF one were to occur.
Anmerkung
Aside from that, Nokia is showing a lot of other extremely bullish confluence factors. Each chart has its own 'flavor' of bull and bear, so I'll highlight just a few of the bullish things I am seeing because, afterall, this idea is bullish bias ;-)Let's start with the Helsinki exchange.
Aside from multiple ~2 year long trend line breakouts, Nokia is RIGHT at the 70 line in the RSI. This signals a large move is likely coming in one direction or the other. It has also multiple times tested and is currently above above the 200 moving average on this time frame. The last time Nokia tested the 200 MA on this time frame was 6 bars in total, and then a large move to the downside.
Interestingly, the 500 MA rests right at my 2.618 extension so that lends credence to the fact that this move upwards MAY only just be beginning.
The NYSE chart is a bit more interesting.
The first screenshot is the 3d time frame. The second is the 2 week.
On the 3d time frame, Nokia is already above the 200 MA on the NYSE exchange.
On these time frames, it is above an 8 year channel in the RSI. For the 2 week time frame, Nokia has only been above this channel 4 times, with each leading to a significant move to the downside.
It has also broken a small 2 week symmetrical triangle in the RSI to the upside.
It is also attempting to break out of a 6 year price channel.
You can see the price and RSI channels in this next screenshot showing the monthly time frame:
Last, but not least. An update regarding the MACD trendline in the original idea. (Yes, color change. whatever.)
The circle signifies where the MACD was when this original idea was created. IT ACTUALLY HELD THE DAMN TREND LINE. Not only that, but it has broken above the 0 line with force after consolidating around it since March! Let's see if it continues...
Nokia has been strongly rejected at the $4.34 price point, which as you can see in the original idea is a major .618 Fibonacci retracement level. There is a more than decent chance that Nokia could drop back down to test this level for support since it was such major resistance in the past. The chart doesn't show that as a very likely possibility in my opinion, but resistance is resistance. Could be why the $10 calls for the 1/21/22 expiration lost open interest recently.
I'm not great at organizing info sometimes, can you tell? l0l
Anmerkung
oh ya.should add that Nokia has been upgraded by morgan stanley.
whoop-de-fuggin-do
marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-nok-a-buy-or-sell-right-now-2021-05/
Anmerkung
Also, Nokia swiftly moved from the #9th spot in most trending to #5 this weekend on Reddit. It sits above Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, and other big names.The last time it was this high was right before the Jan 27th spike.
BUT NOKIA IS CRASHING AS WE SPEAK so it doesn't make any sense!
CRASHING I SAY!
ibb.co/y6g9YLW
ibb.co/xMJJLCG
Anmerkung
Nokia is contending with a trend line in the 2 month RSI that it has only slightly broken above 2 times since 2008.
This trend line also has confluence with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracements from the 2012 low to the 2014 high. Currently, Nokia has been rejected at the 0.5 fib situated at $5.18. Considering the 0.618 at $4.34 has been such a strong pivot point for the past 8+ years, I would not at all be surprised to see that level be re tested for support. There are also gaps that may need to be filled. Ugh.
Anmerkung
ibb.co/bsV8682Above we have the 6/18 options chain for Nokia, which is only 1 month and 5 days away.
There are 2 strike prices here that have enormous open interest for such a short time frame. In fact, the $5 calls expiring on this date are the 6th largest amount of open interest in Nokia's entire options chain dating all the way to 2023. Currently, there are 155,159 open contracts for the $5 strike price ALONE.
As I touched on a few updates ago, there are also a whopping 95,230 contracts open betting that the price of Nokia will be $10 or higher by that date as well. This scenario is very interesting to me because it has the ***potential*** to cause a rapid movement upwards. Nokia will need to climb back above and hold the $5 supply zone, which in reality SHOULD not be all that difficult. If it can do so, market makers may need to at the very least hedge against the $5 call contracts being excersized if they haven't already. Considering each call contract 'controls' 100 shares, the 155,159 open contracts would equate to 15.5M shares needing to be bought. At the $5 price point, this would be a capital influx of roughly 77.5M. This isn't exactly a large dollar number though all things considered. Due to Nokia's habitually low volume however, it would most definitely equate to pouring a bit of gasoline on a fire that has barely even started yet. Depending on a LOT of factors here, this has the ***potential*** to cascade into a much larger buying effect due to all the open interest for this expiration. ESPECIALLY if it can hit $10 by 6/18.
The unfortunate downside here, however, is that with the exception of the Earnings Report rally, Nokia's volume hasn't really changed all that much. In a low volume environment it is very easy for the share price to be manipulated downwards. If the share price is easy to manipulate, the majority of these calls probably won't end up in the money. We have seen this basically ever since the spike in late January. "Theta Gang", as WallStreetBets calls them, have made a significant amount of essentially 'free money' for quite some time now. With this all said, and Nokia being under the major $5 supply zone, volume NEEDS to show up and soon. If not, it will likely stay suppressed to keep under the $5 zone yet again until at the very least 6/18.
This is where I am getting cautiously optimistic however. Manipulation in a low volume environment doesn't have to just be downwards, it can also go up and quite strongly. The chart on different time frames as we speak is still showing solid bullish confluence + potential for a much larger rise above $5. Let me show you why.
Anmerkung
Weekly time frame.
On this time frame, I immediately spot 3 bullish signals.
First and foremost, the fact that Nokia is currently testing 60 RSI for support. Since May of 2018, Nokia has only closed above 60 RSI a total of 4 times. Technically, it obviously broke significantly above it in January but by the time the weekly closed, 60 RSI+ had been fully rejected. I would like to see Nokia close above 60 RSI tomorrow and ideally stay above it or higher next week to build more bullish pressure.
Secondly, Nokia has broken above my 6 year price channel. In 6 years Nokia has only been able to close above this resistance 1 time which ultimately started an extremely strong retracement after about 2 months. It is currently testing former resistance of this channel for support. A close above this channel tomorrow would be a bullish sign.
Third, after Nokia broke out of the pricing channel, it has so far been able to hold a higher low. The first low upon breaking the channel was at $4.61, with the second so far being $4.66. This signals to me a potential weekly bull flag that would produce volume, but only if Nokia can close above $4.66 tomorrow for the candle close.
If Nokia can hold above 60 RSI and the price channel resistance tomorrow, we could be set for a nice trading session next week. The $5.18 price point is what I have now finally realized as the resistance of what looks like a bullish ascending triangle that has been building since the end of 2019. The ideal scenario here is a breakout above $5.18, likely to around $5.45 as that is where the 500 week MA is, and then a small retracement to test for buying support. The bearish side here would be a break of $4.66. This would signal a downside break of a forming bull flag and likely push Nokia down to at least $4.50. Past that, $4.34 to re-test the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement which has been such a strong pivot point for nearly a decade.
Let us see what happens tomorrow and next week.
Anmerkung
Helsinki's 3 day and weekly charts:NYSE 3 day and weekly charts:
Nokia not only held 60 RSI on the 3 day, but also held 60 RSI on the weekly.
The weekly also retraced from the $4.66 low to close at $4.90. Good signs.
I also wanted to log something else I just noticed. Nokia is very, very close to breaking the ***very last*** significant diagonal resistance trend line. I dare to say that a successful break of the $5.18 price point with volume could/will result in a rapid movement upwards to test the horizontal resistance at $6.6. Enough volume and Nokia probably won't even blink at it, as a January-esque style movement again COULD result. If so, possibly even stronger. I'm not going to hold my breath here though, trying to temper my expectations after what resulted FROM the January rally.
I'd next like to point out a crucial update to my 8 year long RSI channel, and the 6 year long price channel.
On the monthly, Nokia is yet again contending with the very very top of this channel.
Nokia closed the weekly candle well above the resistance.
This is arguably the most bullish sign presenting itself at the current moment. Nokia gapped upwards 9 cents to open the daily candle, retraced DIRECTLY to the resistance of the channel, and closed a bullish daily candle with no top wick whatsoever. This means 'the bulls' hedl the price action all the way to the close of the trading session. These types of candles in my trading experience are extremely rare, and in the few cases I have seen this happen, I remember strong bullish movement thereafter.
By traditional charting standards and the knowledge I currently have, all of these signs signal strong bullish confluence. All of this will either result in a significant break OUT, or a significant break DOWN. I'm sure you can guess what side I got literally all of my money on.
All in all, Friday's close was pretty much all Nokia holders could have asked for.
Funny feeling next week is going to have some good movement.
Catch you on the flipside
Anmerkung
By the way.For what it is worth, the charts do look *very* bullish right now for Nokia.
We still have that massive gap on the daily though from the earnings rally.
As high of a chance as I see Nokia going up, I'd say the chances are equally as high for Nokia to fill that gap BEFORE the real launch occurs.
I'm keeping it in mind to try to remain as objective as possible.
Anmerkung
Just messing around with some confirmation bias*cough* aka chart porn *cough*
I don't use Stochastic, but this particular indicator is essentially confirming my bias that Nokia hasn't even started yet.
When will it, or will theta gang win yet again?
Anmerkung
Above we have the daily chart. Today, Nokia rallied 4.25% to $4.15. The candle closed with zero wicking on top, as 'the bulls' were able to rally towards the end of the day to hold a significantly strong close. After today, Nokia has now successfully crossed every single MA I have on this chart above the red 500 MA. On the bearish side, Nokia is showing pretty strong divergence in the RSI and was unable to close into the overbought 70 zone. With the RSI divergence and the inability to enter overbought, algorithmic trading bots could see this as a sign of weakness and dump shares or take profit. This can also be exacerbated by the fact that Nokia is up against multiple long term pivot zones. From the July 2012 bottom to the September 2014 top, Nokia is pretty much right at the 0.5 Fib retracement at $5.18. The 0.5 Fib retracement is a 6 year pivot zone. Price is also situated directly at the top of a 7 year resistance trend line. The MACD was also very close to crossing bearish a few days ago but has since begun to diverge upwards again.
Weekly chart. Nokia has jumped to the very top of a multi-week bull flag.
The weekly is also showing the 25 MA has crossed the 100 MA, and within the next week the 25 MA will also cross the 50 MA.
Not a fan though of the fact that like the daily, the weekly is also showing divergence in the RSI just below the overbought 70 level. This can change by tomorrow's close for the weekly at least depending on price action.
Check out this unreal 2 week candle which closes tomorrow. It retraced down to the very bottom of my trend line resistance channel, and is now pushing up against the very top. As a BULLISH HAMMER. :-0 Last time Nokia pulled a crazy ass candle like this off was the January 27th weekly candle that ended as a massive grave stone doji and subsequently destroyed the share price for the next 12 weekly candles. heh. This one happens to be basically the exact opposite of that one. Hmm...
RSI dipped well below 60 on this time frame but was heavily defended by buying support. Granted, that could change if there is a sudden bearish surprise tomorrow. MACD line is now breaking above 0 on this time frame as well.
The monthly is showing curling 9 and 25 MA's. Nokia has also finally breached above the 50 MA.
Since May 2nd, 2016, Nokia has only been able to successfully close 2 monthly candles above the 50 MA.
Anmerkung
When checking longer term time frames, there are a few things I am seeing which could constitute a strong movement from this zone.2 Month time frame shows Nokia is just barely breaching above the bullish 50 RSI zone. MACD has crossed bullish but has a ways to go before the 0 line. It has also broken above the 25 MA at $4.92. For this time frame, the closest support is $4.92 meanwhile closest resistance is $5.65.
3 Month time frame shows that Nokia is attempting to break above a nearly **20 YEAR OLD** RSI pivot level located at 47.43. Currently the 3 month RSI today is at 47.70. For this time frame, the closest support is $4.24 meanwhile closest resistance is only 11 cents away at $5.26. Above that, we have the potential for $6.6 or higher by the time this time frame closes in July.
Nokia is at an *unprecedented* pivot point here. Now it makes sense as to why there was such a harsh rejection the first time it touched this level. I haven't looked at the monthly+ time frames too much lately. Nokia is contending with a 7 year long price resistance trend line, a 7 year long Fibonacci pivot level, and H U G E time frame RSI trends.
For the past 5 months, I have been talking about Nokia making a very large move upside. I'm not going to get my hopes up here but with the zones Nokia is up against right now, I believe that very large move is materializing. The question is if it will be up or down, since these zones are very, very strong. A key thing to note by the way. With Nokia closing at $5.15 today, it is the highest daily close attained since the spike in January.
I also want to touch on the **potential** but unlikely gamma squeeze scenario. Back in January, Nokia effectively HAD a gamma squeeze, and I believe that to be the real reason it went so high. The difference between then and now however is that there are significantly more contracts in play. Something that just hit me the other night - ALL of Nokia's highest open interest for options resides in strikes at and below the $10 price point. This could also be why it retraced that 'meme pump' so quickly. MM's were not yet ready for Nokia to go upside and I'd bet there was a lot of hedging for those contracts which added to the buying pressure. Especially since everything in trading for the most part is algorithmically controlled via bots. That said, not only could Nokia end up squeezing from the short term open interest, but it could also cause squeezing of the leap contracts as well. Since all major open interest is at $10 and below, all it would take is Nokia getting above $10 with force and I'd bet there will be a *very* significant price movement. Considering Nokia has no hype at all currently, I'm guessing the chances of this happening any time soon and especially by 6/18 are next to zero. IF, however, a major catalyst were to occur ... Ya never know I guess. Not getting my hopes up but putting this here simply for historical and analytical purposes to potentially look back on later.
As far as the hype aspect is concerned, Nokia still has been floating as one of the top 10 mentioned stocks on Reddit. Currently it sits in 9th place. Today there was a bit of hype generated from the 4.25% rise, but it wasn't anything major. I fear that without some sort of significant catalyst or price movement soon, Nokia may yet again fall into the abyss of the lesser talked about stocks, and worse yet, potentially plummet.
Anmerkung
I have been attempting for a while to convince someone I care for to get a small amount of money invested into Nokia. Those attempts have failed, however, since that person's financial advisor has disagreed with my opinion. This financial advisor emailed this person (that I was forwarded) A MORNINGSTAR REPORT as their basis to why Nokia was not a good investment. A MORNINGSTAR REPORT that is available AT ALL TIMES for Robinhood Gold customers, who can access current and updated reports from them in seconds. Morningstar. BRUH. MORNINGSTAR!I told that person multiple times to buy when Nokia was at the $3.9 price point. Anyway, I pretty much gave up until a few nights ago. On one last try to convince them that Nokia was a good buy, I decided to write up a small but informational 'report'. I figure hell, for historical and analytical purposes, why not put the key points of that email here too?
-Since the MORNINGSTAR report that was sent to that person, the "fair value" has changed. Originally, the fair value was $4.60 and it is now $4.80. Mind you, the share price was between $3.90 and $4.00 at the time I was sent that report, so it was already undervalued by THEIR metrics.
-Motley Fool - a very known website in the investing world. On Reddit there has been a lot of chatter in the past that the Motley Fool is usually pretty misleading and not very accurate. There are a few gems here and there that surface on their site, however. Motley Fool has been bashing Nokia for some time now, but suddenly?
fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-tech-stocks-holding-strong-amid-the-market-volat/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
-An article from a site named "Observer" that is essentially bullish recently on Nokia:
observer.com/2021/04/nokia-q1-earning-stock-5g-leadership/
-Morgan Stanley upgraded Nokia from 'equal weight' to 'overweight'. I didn't quite know the definition of this terminology at the time the article came out but knew it was a pretty bullish thing to see:
marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-nok-a-buy-or-sell-right-now-2021-05/
-A financial investment bank a different person I know uses very recently came out saying Nokia is a buy. Again.
-Told person about potential gamma squeeze
-Zacks upgraded Nokia back in April from a "3" or hold, to a "2" or buy. The "style scores" are currently also all A's.
zacks.com/stock/quote/NOK
This ends said email. It wasn't much but it was essentially a last ditch effort to convince said person that their financial advisor is near braindead for taking a MORNINGSTAR report as basically the bible.
There is something interesting I just came across, just now, however. Nasdaq basically just came out and said that the chances of Nokia staying above $5.00 from here on out according to analytics is 100%. weird ...
"Because the $5.00 strike represents an approximate 2% discount to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract would expire worthless. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 100%."
nasdaq.com/articles/nok-august-20th-options-begin-trading-2021-05-20
Anmerkung
Helsinki dailyHelsinki weekly
NYSE daily
NYSE weekly
Was JUST talking about the gravestone doji that killed momentum back in January.
Meanwhile Helsinki's daily close? Gravestone doji. MACD is looking to cross bearish on daily.
NYSE had a very clean rejection from overbought in RSI as well as the long term trendline. Premarket also hit $5.17, 1 cent away from the 0.5 Fib.
yay
Anmerkung
Decided to do something stupid tonight and post a technical analysis on Reddit.Here's the post in its entirety:
This is the overall technical picture for Nokia.
There are a lot of signs here to show that it is at a very important and major pivot point. Namely, testing the yellow 50 monthly moving average, a major zone of resistance in the RSI, a major diagonal trend line resisntace in price, and the top resistance of a bullish 'ascending triangle'.
During the month of April, 2016, Nokia tested and failed to break back above the 50 monthly moving average after falling below it. Since that time, Nokia has only been able to close 2 monthly candles above it, which were in January and February 2019. Nokia was unable to hold this zone and had a very large 60%+ drop thereafter. Currently, Nokia is attempting to break back above this moving average for the 3rd time in 5 years.
In the month of January, 2014, Nokia broke below the bullish RSI 60 level after a large rally. The RSI flirted with this zone for nearly a year before breaking back below it. Since that time, Nokia has been unable to even reach the 60 RSI zone on this time frame let alone get above it, with the exception of the January 'meme pump'. This essentially just backs up the reason for that large 60%+ drop after failing to hold the 50 monthly moving average.
These zones are in the process of creating a very large move. Without further ado, my personal technical analysis for Nokia on why I believe so. Keep in mind, this analysis will strictly revolve around the chart itself, and the options chain. NO FUNDAMENTALS, the writing is written clearly on the wall for those already in my opinion.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Anmerkung
Zoomed out daily picture.
Zoomed in.
The very first thing that catches my attention in these screenshots is the fact that Nokia stopped on a dime at the long term diagonal resistance trend line. Twice. In a row. This trend line is nearly 7 years old, and began during the month of September 2014. The high of $8.73 this trend line starts from was the peak of the bounce Nokia had after it hit a low in 2012 of $1.63. The second thing that catches my eye is confluence, the fact that there are multiple powerful resistance zones in the same area that Nokia has so far been unable to break above. These zones are CRUCIAL for price movement and momentum.
1) The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement(from the 2012 low to the 2014 high) located at $5.18
2) The long term resistance trend line
3) The top of the bullish 'ascending triangle'
4) Rejection of 'overbought' 70 level in the RSI (causing divergence)
5) MACD is attempting to cross bearish due to sudden loss of momentum
On the bullish side of things, Nokia has now crossed all major moving averages to the upside on this time frame, otherwise known as a 'golden cross'. A golden cross is a very powerful tool for traders as it indicates that the recent momentum has shown strong, above-average bullish momentum. This is *typically* an early indicator that an asset is ready to have a large long term rally. After the Earnings Report on 4/29, Nokia was also able to finally break above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement located at $4.34. The 0.618 is the most powerful Fibonacci level in trading next to (in my opinion) the 0.5 level, which Nokia is currently fighting against. Unfortunately, the rally that ensued caused a large gap in price. Most often times these gaps are eventually filled, and if not immediately, may be later on. There are examples in other assets however that had these same sort of gaps happen many many years ago that still have yet to be filled to this day.
Overall on this time frame Nokia is fairly neutral, if not a bit temporarily on the bearish side. (Though this could change depending how Helsinki opens tomorrow.)
In order to continue momentum to the upside, buyers will need to step in to protect the RSI from dropping below 60, and especially to protect the large gap from being filled. The gap being filled would destroy any short to mid-term upside potential Nokia currently has.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Anmerkung
Zoomed out weekly picture.
Zoomed in.
I see 60 RSI on the weekly has finally broken again to the upside. In the past ~3 years, Nokia has been able to close above this zone 3 times. This is the 4th. Even the 'meme pump' in January was rejected by it. wtf? As far as the RSI is concerned, however, Nokia will either need to close under $5.10 this week or go significantly higher to prevent bearish divergence. If bearish divergence materializes in the weekly, it could cause some harsh downward movement from profit taking algo's and bots. Major short + mid-term MA's have crossed upside. Price looks to be consolidating in a 'bull flag' just under major mid-term resistance. Directly overhead we have the red 500 MA at $5.44, which Nokia has not been able to close above on this time frame even once in the past 14 years. Surprisingly, however, it seems to be leveling off...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-Options activity!-
On January 18th, I posted an update to my TradingView account regarding options activity and open interest.
Comparisons of those screenshots versus today are listed below:
$7 1/22 calls:
ibb.co/ynRybwL
ibb.co/5RvfPxC
This particular option has had open interest increase by ~101,000 contracts since January 18th. Open interest went from roughly 136,000 contracts, to today, ~237,000 contracts.
$10 1/22 calls:
ibb.co/chTTSdX
ibb.co/RDN5F66
This particular option has had open interest increase by ~145,000 contracts since January 18th. Open interest went from roughly 208,000 contracts, to today, just over ~353,000 contracts.
$5 1/23 calls:
ibb.co/fxWshcv
ibb.co/TRPSxfK
This particular option has had open interest increase by ~158,500 contracts since January 18th. Open interest went from roughly 57.5k contracts, to today, ~216,000 contracts. This represents a roughly whopping 275%+ increase from January.
$7 1/23 calls:
ibb.co/Syzq64v
ibb.co/gFg8vwC
This particular option has had open interest increase by ~123,500 contracts since January 18th. Open interest went from roughly 112,500 contracts, to today, ~236,000 contracts. This represents a roughly 200% increase.
$10 1/23 calls:
ibb.co/hBhSt4k
Interestly, the higher strike price contracts have been losing open interest while the lower strike price contracts have been gaining. This scenario was exactly opposite of what it is now just a few short months ago.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Anmerkung
-The mini-gamestop-Gamestop hit and was plastered all over media/social media for multiple months due to the naked short squeeze saga that everyone now knows about.
Blackberry, AMC, and Nokia were all grouped into this particular media frenzy. The media painted the large rises in BB, AMC, and Nokia as 'short squeezes from WSB'.
This is not completely true.
Currently, Nokia has less than 1% of its entire supply shorted. Why is noone daring to short this company? If Nokia is 'trash', (looking at you, Cramer) then why is it suddenly at $5+ after a 'surprise' earnings report? People who have been paying attention to all the recent contract developments aren't 'surprised' at all, or shouldn't be, by the recent ER.
During the start of the plandemic, many different companies and corporations were struggling to keep their heads above water.
Nokia? haha. Nokia. They didn't even flinch. They, in fact, were thriving. The recent and past earnings reports prove it.
Throughout my TradingView analysis, I was stating that Nokia's profit margins were doing very well, but their revenue was down.
They just needed to figure out a way to grow revenue while keeping their current profit margins.
guess wat?
WHY isn't anybody mass shorting Nokia at the current moment?
WHY hasn't anybody even attempted to short Nokia into the ground in the past?
It COULD be because Nokia has survived (and significantly grown) since its inception in 1865.
Or it could be because it is has had the potential to outright explode. For YEARS.
What about the potential for a mini-gamestop style GAMMA SQUEEZE?
Or ... what about all of the above?
Rubber-band effect, anyone?
So this leads me to my final point in this anal-ysis.
Currently, Nokia holds the #1 spot in the entire New York Stock Exchange for highest open interest on a given contract.
The $10 calls expiring in January 2021 have a whopping 353,000 open contracts. FORD is the second highest below it at 256,000 contracts, if we subtract ETF's.
Nokia holds 5 out of the top 15 spots for highest open interest in ... THE ENTIRE U.S. MARKET.
Those strikes, in order: $10(1/22), $5(1/22), $7(1/22), $7(1/23), $5(1/23).
The top spot is a $10 strike price that expires in 7 months.
The second top spot is a $5 strike price that also expires in 7 months.
The THIRD top spot is a $7 strike price that also expires in 7 months.
Combined, those $5, $7, and $10 strikes have 851,861 open contracts. ALONE.
ibb.co/rmxLMzv
Source: finance.yahoo.com/options/highest-open-interest/
Anmerkung
NOW let's take a look at the good ole options chain. Specifically, the 6/18 open interest!ibb.co/9twVm3L
Currently, the 6/18 open interest holds roughly 489,877 open contracts.
The only other expiration date that holds a candle to this is 7/16, clocking in at a total of 217,087 open contracts.
The 6/18 expiration date has over 50% the open interest that the 1/22 expiration date does.
The 7/16 expiration date has roughly 44% the open interest that the 6/18 expiration date does.
...HELLO!?
Let's dive into the specifics OF the 6/18 options chain.
First thing that catches my eye is the ... oh I dunno.
153,740 open contracts for the $5 strike price, maybe?
Second thing that catches my eye?
95,041 open contracts for the $10 strike price.
wut.jpg
THIRD thing that catches my eye?
78,656 open contracts for the $6 strike price.
If Nokia closes anywhere above $56/18? moon.
If, by 6/18, Nokia is able to start approaching $7, $8, or especially $10?
mars.
This stock has the potential to go straight up nuclear, and for the past 5 months before even knowing about options interest and such, I've been screaming it from the rooftops.
Here's the 3 biggest problems: Money, money, and money. Otherwise known as: volume, theta, and algorithmic trading bots.
Nokia needs to launch from this weekly bull flag. L A U N C H. ON VOLUME.
Which means ... gasp. People need to actually be willing to BUY at resistance. (I've done that and gotten burned so many times in the past which is why I'm here with you all now, for what it's worth, so I don't blame people for not wanting to. ASIDE from the fact that Nokia is one of if not THE MOST UNDERVALUED STOCK IN THE ENTIRE NYSE. #1 Open interest, 5/15 top spots, etc...you were warned.)
Because of the absurd amount of open interest in $10 strikes and below, Nokia only needs to slightly less than double its market cap (AND HOLD IT) for S E R I O U S fomo to begin.
For comparison. Our bestest frenemy, aka ericsson, is valued at $44.93 billion. Nokia as it stands is at a whopping $28.87 billion. If Nokia increases by $16.06 billion to match that of ericsson, Nokia's share price would be $8. Search around Reddit and you'll realize the $8 mark for Nokia is not something I'm the only one seeing.
*I* personally see a metric fuck ton higher than that. Potentially around $30 by EOY. Short term? $11.2 to $15.8. If gamma squoze, $22 to $32.
Don't ask me how I'm this stupid, I won't explain my stupid, I just see something stupid here, k?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Anmerkung
-By the fucking way. Overly dramatic/passionate TLDR incoming.-Does this at all look right to you?
"Ericsson said the settlement followed investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) into corruption, including the bribing of government officials."
reuters.com/technology/ericsson-pay-97-mln-nokia-after-settling-damages-claim-2021-05-12/
What wins here? Corruption, or Ethics?
What wins here? A narrative? Or an actual company that has done their best to provide consumers the best they can buy?
Gamestop, I fucking hate you with a burning passion. You built your entire business around ROBBING YOUR CUSTOMERS. Meanwhile your share price goes up 187x in a year.
Nokia?
I rest my case, your honor.
(Will not be responding to comments. Period. Please don't try.)
Anmerkung
Hmmm.
Anmerkung
Last update for a while.
Anmerkung
reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/nofzwf/antivaxxer_with_veneers_botox_lip_filler_dyed/MFW your most bullish asset could mean you're literally investing in the decline of mankind before your very eyes..
But hey, at least you *might* get rich, amirite?
Anmerkung
Okay, seriously, the last update for a while. Considering how things have been going lately I don't know that I'll be able to see the $42.22 high come to fruition while I'm still in my current position, but this is what I see for resistance on the way back up once Nokia finally has its real breakout. 
Anmerkung
Haven't paid attention to this trend line because I've personally found that these very long term ATH trend lines get front run well in advance and in a big way. This broke out from the ATH trend line years ago depending on how you draw the trend line.
ibb.co/6nnzCFp
Massive spike in call volumes today along with a fairly significant increase in share price.
welp.
Not sure what happens next, but Nokia has broken completely out of the very last correct way the ATH resistance trend line can be drawn.
spicy 20 piece McNuggets on the menu?
Anmerkung
7-16 $5.5ibb.co/Q9nF7KX
7-16 $6
ibb.co/v1hVsm2
7-16 $7
ibb.co/w6y6n3s
7-16 $8
ibb.co/HHvNSPr
7-16 $9
ibb.co/0sRtrG7
7-16 $10
ibb.co/dtPwSzc
6-18 $19
ibb.co/6ZFn08K
6-18 $19
ibb.co/FXxRbKY
Imagine being so unbelievably stupid that you think $19 is possible within a month, let alone 8 trading days. IN NOKIA.
The amount of buying volume Nokia would have to have here would be so outrageous that the 'meme pump' in January would just be a blip on the volume radar. It would essentially have to look like the volume on this ACB idea before pressing play:
Imagine being me. xD I'M that dumbass being referred to above.
I no longer hold any $19 contracts for 6/18 but I did have a good few of them up until about a week ish ago. Don't want to get into that, because I bought them at 1 cent and they pumped right after I sold. : | AND I HAD A LOT OF THEM.
The weird part is, that strike can actually happen. Or at the very least, you can make a slight profit on them if nothing else so long as Nokia has a strong bump upwards within the next 8 days. At $0.01 per contract, those could go unbelievably high, should there be an actual gamma squeeze or strong share price rise. The $17 strike contracts for the same expiration date are the same price though and are just a teeny tiny little bit more in reach ;-)
Chatter has been picking up on Reddit regarding a Nokia gamma squeeze, by the way.
Anmerkung
A *POSSIBLE* way to support the theory of a gamma squeeze ACTUALLY happening is by some interesting changes in the options chain recently. We'll start off from the furthest out with the highest open interests: 1-21-22 $7
ibb.co/x765p7v
1-21-22 $10
ibb.co/Ch9Hhp6
Percentage wise there hasn't been anything *too* overly significant... But the graph sells itself.
Someone is taking their money out of the $10 strikes for this expiration and instead putting them into $7 strikes. Why, especially when the $7 strikes are more expensive?
Then we tack on the fact that in the very first charts of open interest shown above, the $9 and $10 strikes for 7-16 have gone up the past week *significantly* in both volume and open interest. This is really strange behavior from my little experience in options trading. Not only are the longer term LEAP contracts going up in open interest on lower strikes and going down in higher strikes, but the higher short term strikes are going up fairly significantly as well. This tells me that someone is actually *potentially* expecting a large price movement of some sort. Soon. Very, very soon.
Keep in mind, those were just the 7-16 expirations. Now we look at the 6-18's:
6-18 $6
ibb.co/n6JMfqc
6-18 $7
ibb.co/7JZxzYy
6-18 $8
ibb.co/5MvbpgH
6-18 $9
ibb.co/hFCCq7S
6-18 $19
ibb.co/9rrXQ7P
Somethin really funky going on here but I still think it is more than likely a trap.
Bait. Goin fishin kinda bait. I still got a few $10 calls for 6-18 and some $9 calls for 7-16 so we shall see.
Anmerkung
There's a fellow TV user on a Nokia sub on Reddit that I frequent.tradingview.com/u/Doc-al-Citadel/
This guy has posted some legit technical analysis lately, but he uses linear. I use both log and linear, but mainly log over longer time frames. There's been a long heated debate on which is better. Anyway, he pointed out that on linear, Nokia has broken above every significant long term trend line to begin a breakout. I pointed out that on log, we are still below the most major one at the moment, starting from the high of $8.73 on 9-19-14:
On linear format:
Long story short on THIS particular section is that he stated he feels Nokia is *just now* breaking out while I personally feel Nokia has already broken out a while ago. My reply to him on Reddit (which will likely be deleted cause I hate history of any kind whatsoever, FUCK HISTORY) is here:
"So many different ways it has already 'broken out'.
By far my main reasoning for the breakout having already happened. What I believe to have caused the January 27th 'meme pump', confirmed by RSI :
A way it may not yet have broken out:
My basic bitch determination of the downtrend PA, a 5-3-5 ABC correction with subsequent breakout and beginning of a new massive cycle with the 'meme pump' being the beginning of a giant wave 3:
(Keep in mind I am legit AIDS at EWT but this is just a rough outline of what I see after learning a tiny bit more about it. Indicators all seem to confirm this based on my experience.)
There are so, so, so many ways to define a trend line, much less how to interpret a chart. My trend lines were all backed up by indicators, mainly the RSI.
Either way, I believe the real breakout started before the 'meme pump', it just had volatile price action to make it very difficult to figure out when it would actually mark up the first time. Regardless, none of this really matters. *It is clear as day that someone or some entity with extremely deep pockets has maticulously planned this assets advance well, well ahead of time. That along with Blackberry, AMC, and GME. Nokia is the main one said entity needs to make absolute sure they can control, because the insanely low IV could cause a massive mark up of option prices if a large movement occurs.*
One of three things will happen here. Either we pump really really hard before the mass of expirations on 6/18, we pump really really hard before the smaller but still large mass of expirations on my birthday of 7/16, or we pump immediately after 7/16 or especially the ER. One way or another I believe that we are on the verge of making many, many top posts on WSB. (Not that I care for that sub much anymore...)
If I'm wrong on WHEN, well, fuck it. Whenever this thing goes back up again, and it will, January will look like lunch money by comparison. No pun intended."
reddit.com/r/Nok/comments/nvhu63/brilliant_summary_from_umysecretupvoteacct/
(Brilliant. haha. hestopid. Might be right on his cherry picked TLDR from my reply here but that doesn't make me anywhere near brilliant. anyway..)
Anmerkung
TLDR:Higher strikes losing OI in leaps.
Lower strikes gaining serious OI + volumes in weeklies/monthlies.
Nokia is flirting with a massive, massive, massive zone of supply confluence. Has already broken ATH trend line as well as many other significant diagonals.
Nokia is undeniably and extremely manipulated to force call buyers to lose money. So is BB, AMC, and GME.
Gamma squeeze is gaining momentum as a possibility.
Gas Whale C if I can hold this position long enough, and if so, will I fuck it up again like back in January? By the way, thanks for that.
Anmerkung
That's your last update for a while.The options chain had too funky of movements to not update this idea.
hmmm
Anmerkung
Wee little update.Today, Nokia again attempted to break the last significant diagonal trend line resistance. MY trend line is the lower of the two:
marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-nok-a-buy-or-sell-right-now-2021-06-2-3/
research.ibb.ubs.com/openaccess/compliance/91872_1_new.html
Yesterday Goldman Sachs upgraded Nokia from hold to buy. UBS financial also reiterated a buy rating on Nokia and increased their target price.
Let's see what next week brings.
Anmerkung
Just a thought.Yesterday Nokia was upgraded to buy by a large financial institution. Another FI also upgraded the target for fair value. Nokia went up 9.9%. That is a GARGANTUAN move for Nokia.
Why is it that *these* kind of news reports move the price dramatically? Yet...setting multiple alleged world records, landing contracts with massive worldwide titans, (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, ATT, T-Mobile, etc.) being the *only* company to bring cellular technology TO THE MOON, being the main collaborator for a United States Federal cybersecurity project, (of which, Nokia stands among current giants in the same industries.) and plenty, plenty more doesn't?
In fact, almost every time Nokia has had these kind of news releases, the stock drops. WHY?
Gamestop goes up 18,700% bottom to top, (and many many many people believe it's far from done yet?) AMC goes up 3,702% bottom to top, names like CLOV, WKHS, CLNE, CLF, WISH, and so many others just absolutely skyrocket!? Or why today barely anyone wanted to buy off the ask and instead bought from the bid trading pennies at a time? Yet, bottom to top NOKIA has seen ... 143%! Okay. Dont get me wrong here. A 143% gainer is no joke. (Actually it kinda seriously is especially if you have a financial advisor but people dont want you to know that.)
The FLOAT of Nokia, of course! It has way too many shares so it is 'heavy' and 'hard to move!' You legitimately cannot be serious right? January 27th 2021 proved that the float doesn't matter. Market cap does. Anyway, rant over. Now for the answer. What I believe to be the real one.
Nokia has been consolidating for 9 years straight. 9 Full years of ups and downs. A rollercoaster but an absolute goldmine for big, big, big money. While they accumulate mass market share of these companies, whomever it may be, they sell calls! They sell these calls to plebs like me who hope to someday not only get out of Mom's basement but make her proud before she dies. Mine in particular ain't got much time left. With their huge and constantly growing market share, they trick the nobs like me into traps, just like 6/18 was. I/we buy their calls, they force share price out of the money, and bam. They just made money aka lowering their cost basis. Imagine if you have tens of millions or hundreds of millions of shares. A 1 cent price move means upwards of 100,000,000 pennies, in one second. Imagine that. Okay, anyway...
Why do they do this? There are a lot of people and institutions with large amounts of money who are cold hearted bastards. Some try to help the little guy, but not often. One slip up and you're fucked. Trust me, I know this intimately. But! BUT. The good guys AND the bad guys have one common purpose: to NOT push the price up. For as long as they ca. Why? The higher it goes the more expensive to buy more, right?
So.........What if Nokia actually IS not just a... but, THE sleeping giant?
Anmerkung
CAN*Ugh.
PHONES SUCK.
Anmerkung
GME can't break $200 on volume, AMC IMO really wants down, and wish might bear trap.Man.
Anmerkung
This is pretty much as close as it gets.
I dunno anymore.
Anmerkung
gfycat.com/teemingdensebrocketdeerAnmerkung
Nokia has been consolidating in a little over year long ascending channel.
In April, Nokia tested the middle of this channel and was rejected by the mid line and the long term diagonal trend line resistance. The Earnings Report that came out at the end of April caused Nokia to jump above both. The May candle closed above the mid line with good volume, after flipping the diagonal trend resistance to support. Last month in June, Nokia tested the former mid line and flipped it from resistance to support. The June candle closed on good volume, but the small candle body is admittedly a bit of concern, considering the prior 2 monthly candles made significantly more upward progress on the same volume.
Here, we have the 2 week time frame. I've highlighted the main areas of confluence. The January 'meme pump' closed directly under the mid line of the channel. Recently, however, the mid line was obviously broken, and the 2 week candle caused a bear trap and closed as a long wicked bearish hammer. Since then, Nokia has formed a multi week bull flag after having tested the mid line multiple times for support on this time frame.
Here we have the weekly time frame. I have an arrow showing where Nokia broke that crucial long term diagonal trend line, then tested it successfully for support. Immediately thereafter, Nokia jumped above the mid line and began flipping it from resistance to support.
Here is a zoomed out image of the daily time frame showcasing the large channel.
Zooming into the daily, something interesting. Nokia dropped to the mid line of the channel, and over a period of 5 days confirmed it as support. The interesting part? As soon as Nokia closed below the mid line, it gapped back up above it. During after hours that day, Goldman Sachs upgraded Nokia to a buy, while UBS at the same time upgraded their fair value estimate, reiterating Nokia as a buy.
These are what I believe to be the main targets for the next couple of weeks. Considering Nokia is in a multi week bull flag, I believe it could jump up for a pre- Earnings Report, potentially to the top of the channel or higher. A lot of people are talking about having high expectations for this next report and that tells me people may front run the news. 2nd Quarter earnings was a catalyst to get Nokia above the mid line of the ascending channel. This one COULD be a sell the news event. OR, depending how strong the report is, could be the catalyst Nokia needs to break out of this channel for good.
So, on the immediate upside, I see around $6.20 for the top of the channel. If Nokia can get to $6.20 or above on volume, we may end up having a rather large rally. If we break lower, Nokia should re test the mid line at around $5.15. Past that is the near decade-long diagonal I've been talking a lot about, which resides at around 4.50ish. If we go lower yet to fill the Earnings Report gap from early May, look to between $4.30 and $4 for support. Around $4 is the absolute bottom of the channel but I do not see this as likely.
There is interesting activity in the July 16th options chain, very high open interest for OTM calls starting at $6:
ibb.co/S3xVB0x
Anmerkung
Open interest in contracts, in case you dont click links:35k @ $5
32 @ $5.5
52k @ $6
87k @ $7
19k @ $8
21k @ $9
26k @ $10
Interestingly, there are apparently 11.6k contracts open for the $19 strike as well. What's neat about those contracts is if Nokia can have any decent jump from here, those could stand to go up 300% or higher due to the unique situation of implied volatility.
Considering what happened on 6/18, I'm not holding my breath, but the 7/16 expiration has a much different set of circumstances than what 6/18 did. There are a few slightly bearish signals on the chart, but far more bullish ones especially with Earnings less than a month away.
Let's see what the Nokia whales got in store the next few weeks.
Anmerkung
P.s.I know my 'near-decade long trend line shifts a bit in my screenshots.
That is because trend lines are very subjective and I believe firmly Nokia has already broken all the major diagonal resistances. At this point it's big big big money fighting to get as many shares last minute as possible utilizing trend lines that are basically the last of the last.
Painting. Anyway...
Anmerkung
For reasons I won't explain, I'm done updating this idea.You win.
Anmerkung
welp
Anmerkung
Final, and I mean final update:
Anmerkung
Hmmm.Anmerkung
Another thing I'd like to post just for reference:finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOKIA.HE/
Anmerkung
Leading up to the 'meme stock' frenzy, every single time frame except the quarterly(3M) shows a candle close above this major trend line. It was only after the major spike that Nokia was finally able to close a quarterly candle above it. For the past 6 months however, Nokia has been in a steady decline. I think, FINALLY, Nokia is about to begin the explosive move upward that I've been waiting the past few years for, and here is why.
First and foremost, the gigantic yearly(12M) time frame:
As we can see on the yearly time frame, Nokia is *currently* holding above the 0.618 retracement from the major low of $1.63 and the high of $8.73.
To take this a bit further, I did a fib retracement of the candle BODY itself from last year. Nokia is currently holding THAT 0.618 as well, and didn't even tap the 0.786.
Now we check out the swing retracement from the Corona low to the high just under the trend line resistance.
That held the 0.618 as well.
Now, the most recent gigantic swing from the low prior to the spike and the high from the spike.
Nokia for the past FOUR MONTHS has held above that 0.786 fib retracement, while also being above the major trend line resistance. Back in March, Nokia dropped down to the trend line resistance and at that time quite clearly confirmed it as support, showing a bullish hammer with very little top wick on good volume. Although price has since closed lower and lower on the monthly time frame, the 0.786 fib retracement (at least for now) refuses to break.
There is this, though. A descending triangle which if *confirmed* would push Nokia well back below the trend line. Would it be a real drop though, or would it be a fakeout?
If we do a fib retracement from the low of $1.63 back in 2012 to the high of $9.79 from the 'meme' spike, we get this glorious bastard. As we can see, the 0.618 of these price points is a MAJOR inflection point. This is the 4th month of testing the 0.618 from the lowest low to the highest high after Nokia's all time high.
The monthly, bi-monthly, quarterly, and bi-yearly candles all close at the end of this month. If Nokia can stay above $4.75 or at least close to it until the end of the month, all bets are off on this downtrend continuing. I am not at all saying Nokia can not break these zones as it obviously can, but I do genuinely believe that it is FINALLY in the middle to late stages of reversing long-term trend and heading to a new all time high.
With all of this said, the yearly candle still has 6 months to go yet. There may not be any large moves upward until that candle closes, BUT, as far as I am concerned, anything below $4.75 at this point is a major major major buy opportunity.
Let's see what happens.
Anmerkung
Oh yeah, this too...Anmerkung
3rd test of the neckline ...
Anmerkung
holee
F
Anmerkung
When Nokia makes its move, it will be monumental.
Get ready...
Anmerkung
"Nokia announced it is sending a 4G internet service to the Moon during an upcoming space mission. The company says the technology will hopefully pave the way for more lunar discoveries and create opportunities for a human presence on the Moon and beyond.
The system is expected to be deployed during Intuitive Machines’s upcoming IM-2 mission, which is currently scheduled to launch in November aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. Intuitive Machines’s Nova-C lunar lander will take the system and other payloads to our natural satellite, bringing Nokia’s 4G communications system to its final destination on the Shackleton crater in the southern region of the Moon, CNBC reports."
gizmodo.com/nokia-sending-4g-internet-moon-nasa-artemis-1850272996
Earnings on Thursday, 4/20.
Clearly I know what I'm doing right?
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.