17 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Bears are still fighting 🐻🐻
Nifty Weekly Analysis
We have fallen 201pts ~ 1.03% between the last expiry and today. If you notice the chart below, Nifty is closely following the bearish trend line and we will get a range convergence soon. If the support line of 19309 is not breaking - we will have a bullish reversal. Global macros, India inflation data and other sentiments are pointing for a bearish case though. What will Nifty do?
Nifty Daily Analysis
I was very much impressed with today’s price action by Nifty. If you notice the trades we had yesterday - it was much contrary to what traders were anticipating. Today we just negated those moves.
You might remember the 15.00 candle that went up 45 pts yesterday - it really made no sense. I was thoroughly looking for any events to find out why we had a surge yesterday, but today’s reversal and negation brings back sanity.
We had 2 legs for the fall today, the first leg a fall of 83pts till 10.00 and then the second leg of 89pts between 11.05 to 13.00. The options flow did indicate we would have a bear day today, but I seriously thought the 19309 support line may get broken.
RELIANCE, ITC, HDFCBK, LT, KOTAKBK, BAJFINANCE were the main losers today and TITAN, ADANIENT, SBIN the main winners. The market depth favored the bears too with 33/50 in red.
Finally this is what we have now, the pressure mounting on Nifty50 to breakout or breakdown. Technical Analysis points to a breakout and the Fundamental Analysis hinting at a breakdown due to poor macros. Today’s 99pts fall is giving some hope to the otherwise beaten bears - their first priority tomorrow would be to take out the 19309 support to gather immense downside momentum. I am changing my stance from neutral to 60% bearish & 40% neutral for tomorrow.
If you have any questions - please comment below
We have fallen 201pts ~ 1.03% between the last expiry and today. If you notice the chart below, Nifty is closely following the bearish trend line and we will get a range convergence soon. If the support line of 19309 is not breaking - we will have a bullish reversal. Global macros, India inflation data and other sentiments are pointing for a bearish case though. What will Nifty do?
Nifty Daily Analysis
I was very much impressed with today’s price action by Nifty. If you notice the trades we had yesterday - it was much contrary to what traders were anticipating. Today we just negated those moves.
You might remember the 15.00 candle that went up 45 pts yesterday - it really made no sense. I was thoroughly looking for any events to find out why we had a surge yesterday, but today’s reversal and negation brings back sanity.
We had 2 legs for the fall today, the first leg a fall of 83pts till 10.00 and then the second leg of 89pts between 11.05 to 13.00. The options flow did indicate we would have a bear day today, but I seriously thought the 19309 support line may get broken.
RELIANCE, ITC, HDFCBK, LT, KOTAKBK, BAJFINANCE were the main losers today and TITAN, ADANIENT, SBIN the main winners. The market depth favored the bears too with 33/50 in red.
Finally this is what we have now, the pressure mounting on Nifty50 to breakout or breakdown. Technical Analysis points to a breakout and the Fundamental Analysis hinting at a breakdown due to poor macros. Today’s 99pts fall is giving some hope to the otherwise beaten bears - their first priority tomorrow would be to take out the 19309 support to gather immense downside momentum. I am changing my stance from neutral to 60% bearish & 40% neutral for tomorrow.
If you have any questions - please comment below
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