Microsoft's Acquisition of Activision: Is It a Wise Investment?

24. Okt. 2023

Microsoft's Acquisition of Activision: Is It a Wise Investment?

Microsoft's recent acquisition of Activision Blizzard for a whopping $68.7 billion marks a significant move in the tech and gaming industry. After overcoming regulatory hurdles, the deal is now sealed, and Activision Blizzard is officially a part of the Microsoft family. But what does this mean for Microsoft's investors, and is the tech giant still an attractive investment option? Let's delve into the details.

Before the acquisition, Microsoft was already a formidable presence in the stock market. However, its valuation had climbed to relatively high levels, leading some to wonder about its investment potential. By committing a substantial portion of its cash reserves to the acquisition of Activision, Microsoft has entered a new phase that merits closer examination.

As of the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023, Microsoft held over $111 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet. The acquisition of Activision represents a significant allocation of these cash reserves, and at first glance, it appears to offer compelling value.

Activision, prior to the merger, boasted an impressive profit margin of 25%. The merger allows for the consolidation of various roles within the newly integrated entity, potentially leading to improved profit margins. Microsoft, with its vast resources, can contribute to enhanced product development, creating a mutually beneficial synergy.

But does this make Microsoft's stock a must-buy? To gauge its attractiveness, let's examine some key financials. In the past year, Activision generated $8.7 billion in revenue and $2.2 billion in profits. This valuation places the stock at 7.9 times sales and 31 times earnings. In comparison, Microsoft is trading at 12 times sales and 34 times earnings. Essentially, Microsoft's acquisition of Activision appears to be a cost-effective endeavor, as it paid less for Activision than it typically spends on share repurchases.

However, it's essential to keep things in perspective. Microsoft's annual revenue stands at a staggering $212 billion, with profits of $72 billion. Integrating Activision Blizzard's numbers from the past year would lead to modest increases of 4% in revenue and 3% in earnings for Microsoft. As a result, the valuations for both revenue and earnings would only experience marginal decreases. While Microsoft's stock might become slightly more affordable, the change is not substantial.

So, should investors avoid Microsoft altogether? Not necessarily. It's crucial to acknowledge that Microsoft's stock is relatively expensive compared to its tech sector peers, and the near-term outlook isn't significantly brighter. Currently trading at 30 times forward earnings, it carries a 50% premium compared to the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20. Such a premium is substantial, especially for a stock expected to achieve an 11% revenue growth during fiscal year 2024.

Furthermore, with high interest rates, companies can easily generate a 4% return on idle cash reserves. In this context, 4% of the $68.7 billion spent on the Activision acquisition amounts to $2.7 billion, surpassing Activision's profits over the past year. This raises questions about whether the investment in Activision was the most prudent use of Microsoft's funds, especially considering that the deal was initiated during a different interest rate environment in early 2022.

While Microsoft boasts substantial investments in artificial intelligence, a thriving cloud computing division, and a formidable gaming arm, some investors might find the stock overvalued. There are other stocks in the market exhibiting faster growth and more attractive valuations, making them worthy alternatives to consider before committing to Microsoft.

In conclusion, Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard is a significant move, but it doesn't drastically alter the company's financial landscape. Microsoft's stock remains relatively expensive, and the investment in Activision, while strategic, may not be the sole determinant of its future success. Investors should carefully weigh their options and consider the broader market context before making investment decisions.