When is a trend unstable?
Aktualisiert
Whenever I want to FOMO buy something that's gone way up, it's always a good idea to check out the acceleration of the advance.
An easy way to do this is to use rays to draw trendlines. If the trend has accelerated without retesting, forcing you to draw a new one, then that generally reflects instability. The more rays you have to draw, the more unstable price is.
My rule of thumb is don't buy anything after more than 3 accelerations. (green, yellow, red). If price trend is at 4 or more, start looking for shorts. Especially if you can see declining volume on the rise - then demand is weakening.
In this case there's major resistance at the red dotted line. That's where I'll close my longs and start shorting. If we get there...
Trade is invalidated if price closes above the red line, preferably with some volume.
PS - learned this from djthistle01, you should follow him.
An easy way to do this is to use rays to draw trendlines. If the trend has accelerated without retesting, forcing you to draw a new one, then that generally reflects instability. The more rays you have to draw, the more unstable price is.
My rule of thumb is don't buy anything after more than 3 accelerations. (green, yellow, red). If price trend is at 4 or more, start looking for shorts. Especially if you can see declining volume on the rise - then demand is weakening.
In this case there's major resistance at the red dotted line. That's where I'll close my longs and start shorting. If we get there...
Trade is invalidated if price closes above the red line, preferably with some volume.
PS - learned this from djthistle01, you should follow him.
Anmerkung
closed longs as we've had a daily close outside the last trend line. this could also just be drawn as a parabola (same concept).going to scale in short here
Trade ist aktiv
strong reaction off resistance at .0143 is making me re-think this. if we'd run out of steam, then we should have stayed below the .014724 level. closing back above it is not a good sign for being bearish here.still leaving this open as a hedge for now, since my long/short ratio is currently about 3 to 1. although I will close my LTC/USD short.
XBT closing above $4080 (bitmex) will make me go full long.
proceed with caution
Trade ist aktiv
Patience has been key here. Glad I left it open! Stop moved to breakevenTrade ist aktiv
should have taken profit... this has been bought up massively. if it closes above the highest support, i'm closing this and going full long. bodes well for alt season!!
Trade geschlossen: Stop wurde erreicht
well, LTC got bought up so hard it my stop. trade closed. could have taken a decent profit on this but didn't. lesson learned for next time.
on the bright side, this much buy volume stepping in is extremely bullish.
going full long
Anmerkung
no loss on this due to pulling stop forward. but i lost nearly all the potential profit
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