Li Auto Inc. Seeking Stability Amid Intense Market Competition

28. Aug.

Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI), a leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, recently reported a sharp decline in profits for the second quarter of 2024, driven by higher production costs, price cuts, and increased competition. With demand for EVs weakening globally, the company faced substantial challenges that have significantly impacted its financial performance and stock price. This article delves into both the fundamental and technical aspects of Li Auto's current situation, providing a comprehensive outlook on what lies ahead for the company.

Rising Costs, Increased Competition, and Profit Pressures
Li Auto's financial results for the second quarter of 2024 revealed a year-over-year decline in net income by 52.3% to RMB1.1 billion (USD $151.5 million). The adjusted earnings per American Depository Share (ADS) fell 45% to RMB1.42 (USD $0.20), although both figures managed to exceed analysts' consensus estimates. However, the revenue growth of 10.6% to RMB31.7 billion (USD $4.4 billion) fell short of expectations. The company's CFO, Tie Li, acknowledged the "intense market competition" and high production costs as significant factors behind the declining profits.

Vehicle sales, which accounted for the bulk of Li Auto's revenue, increased by 8.4% from RMB28.0 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB30.3 billion in Q2 2024. However, the vehicle margin dropped to 18.7%, down from 21.0% in the same period last year, mainly due to a lower average selling price driven by product mix and pricing strategy changes. The gross margin also declined to 19.5% from 21.8%, reflecting the ongoing cost pressures.

Li Auto's operating expenses rose by 23.9% to RMB5.7 billion (USD $785.6 million), mainly due to higher R&D costs and employee compensation to support its expanding product portfolio and technological advancements. These rising costs, coupled with a decrease in gross profit, led to a 71.2% decline in income from operations to RMB468 million (USD $64.4 million).

Despite these challenges, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) is cautiously optimistic about the second half of 2024. The company expects the stabilization of its new Li L6 SUV production and the implementation of cost reduction measures to improve its margins and cash flow. Looking ahead to Q3 2024, the company forecasts vehicle deliveries between 145,000 to 155,000 units, with total revenues estimated to be in the range of RMB39.4 billion to RMB42.2 billion, representing an increase of 13.7% to 21.6% compared to Q3 2023.

Technical Analysis: Critical Levels and Potential Reversal Zones
From a technical perspective, Li Auto's stock has been under significant selling pressure. As of the most recent trading session, the stock fell 16%, with the price hovering around $17.58, reflecting a 17% decline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 38, indicating an oversold condition that suggests further potential downside.

Li Auto's stock is at a critical juncture. A move towards the key support pivot at $12 could trigger a substantial sell-off, pushing the stock price lower and potentially leading to further market panic. On the other hand, if the stock manages to recover and surpass the block structure resistance at $24, it could signal a bullish reversal, encouraging renewed investor interest and potentially propelling the stock toward the next resistance level above $40.

The bearish outlook is primarily driven by the current oversold conditions and negative market sentiment. However, if Li Auto can stabilize its production costs, improve margins, and execute its growth strategy effectively, there is a possibility of a rebound. The next few weeks will be crucial as investors closely monitor the company's performance and market dynamics.

Conclusion:
Li Auto faces a challenging environment characterized by high production costs, intense competition, and fluctuating demand for electric vehicles. While its recent financial performance has been disappointing, the company's efforts to stabilize costs and improve margins in the coming quarters offer a glimmer of hope for a turnaround.

From a technical standpoint, the stock remains under pressure but could find support at lower levels, providing an attractive entry point for value-oriented investors. However, caution is advised, as a sustained recovery will depend on several factors, including broader market conditions, competitive positioning, and the successful execution of the company's strategic initiatives.

Investors should watch for signs of stabilization in Li Auto's margins and production costs, as well as the potential for a technical bounce if the stock can move above the key resistance level. Until then, the outlook remains mixed, with both risks and opportunities on the horizon.