HDFCAMC – Strong Bullish Breakout on High Volume

📈 HDFCAMC – Strong Bullish Breakout on High Volume
📅 Setup Date: 18.07.2025 | ⏱ Timeframe: Daily
📍 Strategy: Short-Term HNI Swing Setup
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📝 Price Action Summary – HDFCAMC
HDFCAMC has delivered a textbook price action breakout, marked by a wide-range bullish candle on 3x average volume — confirming strong institutional participation. After weeks of tight consolidation and multiple failed attempts near the ₹5,385 resistance zone, the price finally broke out with a clean close near day’s high, indicating minimal selling pressure and clear buyer dominance. The breakout follows a classic compression-before-expansion setup, with the previous range acting as a base for momentum. Importantly, the absence of upper wick, strong follow-through, and volume-backed surge signal genuine strength — not a false breakout. Price has now entered a discovery phase with open space toward ₹5,673–₹5,800. As long as ₹5,385 holds as support, the bulls remain in control, and dip buying remains a high-probability setup. This is a classic case of price action speaking louder than indicators — structure, strength, and story all aligned.
__________________________________________________________________________________Trade Logic – Why This Setup:
Strong Price Structure: The stock has formed a bullish candle backed by a 20-day volume breakout, closing near the highs—indicating strong, sustained demand.
Breakout Confirmation: Price has cleanly broken out from a short-term base formed by multiple candle congestion. It's also trading above the prior resistance level of ₹5,385, confirming breakout strength.
__________________________________________________________________________________ Indicator Confluence: The RSI stands strong at 72, signaling bullish momentum. Additionally, the stock is breaking out of a Bollinger Band squeeze—an early sign of a potential momentum ignition. MACD, CCI, and Stochastic indicators are all aligned in bullish zones across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.
EMA Alignment: The stock is trading above all major exponential moving averages (9, 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA), suggesting healthy trend harmony and support at every timeframe.
VWAP Positioning: Current price action remains well above the daily VWAP, indicating buying interest from institutional players and strong demand zones building underneath.
Volume Spike: Today's volume was 1.61 million, compared to the 10-day average of 452,000—more than a 3x surge, confirming strong buyer conviction and institutional participation.
Open Upside Potential: There are no significant supply zones visible until ₹5,800–₹6,000, offering a clear path for price expansion and swing targets.
Sector Tailwinds: The financial services and AMC sector is witnessing renewed traction after positive earnings and improved fund flow trends, supporting broader strength in related counters.
__________________________________________________________________________________ Would I Enter Now?
YES – Enter Now or on Dip
Reason: Price has just cleared a major volume cluster with strong momentum. Waiting too long might mean missing the breakout. The best approach would be:
• Enter 50% now
• Add 50% near ₹5,495–₹5,485 if there’s an intraday dip

__________________________________________________________________________________ 📈 Resistance Zones
• 🔴 R1: 5,591.5 (possibly weak)
• 🔴 R2: 5,673
• 🔴 R3: 5,797
📉 Support Zones
• 🟢 S1: 5,385
• 🟢 S2: 5,261
• 🟢 S3: 5,179

__________________________________________________________________________________ Direction: Buy (Bullish Bias)
Entry Price: ₹5,510 (Current Market Price)
Alternate Entry: On slight dips to ₹5,485–₹5,495 (ideal risk-managed zone)
Stop Loss: ₹5,385
Reason: This is Support 1 and a key VWAP-based level from the recent volume structure. A breach here invalidates the bullish strength.
Risk–Reward Ratio: 1:1 | 1:2 | +

__________________________________________________________________________________ Overall Bias: Bullish
Spot Price: ₹5,510
Trend: Strong upward momentum
Volatility: Slightly cooling IV (esp. in puts), but still elevated → good for defined-risk strategies
Ideal Strategy Mix: Naked CE or Call Debit Spread (defined-risk bullish strategy)

1. 🔼 Bullish Trade (Naked options as per trend)
Best CE: Buy 5400 CE @ ₹197.95
Why: Strong long buildup with rising OI, high volume, and solid delta — indicating institutional interest and momentum-backed directional strength.
__________________________________________________________________________________ 2. 🔽 Bearish Trade (Naked options as per trend)
Best PE: Sell 5200 PE @ ₹26.5
Why: Strong put writing seen with rising OI and price drop, suggesting low downside risk and income potential if bullish trend holds.
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3. ⚙️ Strategy Trade (As per trend + OI data)
Strategy: Call Debit Spread → Buy 5400 CE + Sell 5600 CE
Net Debit: ₹197.95 - ₹92.6 = ₹105.35
Max Profit: ₹200 (spread) - ₹105.35 = ₹94.65
Max Loss: ₹105.35
Risk:Reward ≈ 1 : 0.9
Lot Size: 150
Total Risk: ₹15,802.5
Max Profit: ₹14,197.5
Why: This call spread is ideal because both the 5400 CE and 5600 CE are showing strong long build-up, indicating that traders expect the price to move higher. The 5600 CE has a sharp 168% jump in open interest with high volume, suggesting it’s a realistic target zone. By using a spread (buying 5400 CE and selling 5600 CE), we reduce the upfront cost and limit losses while still capturing upside. It also protects against time decay if the stock consolidates before moving up.
__________________________________________________________________________________ ⚠ Disclaimer (Please Read):
• These Trades are shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
• I am not a SEBI-registered advisor.
• The information provided here is based on personal market observation.
• No buy/sell recommendations are being made.
• Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
• Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management.
STWP is not responsible for trading decisions based on this post.
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Caution: This is a result based stock
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