DAX week 19

15. Mai 2021

Hello everyone,

This week, I offer my analysis of the movements of GER30 during the week and my outlook for next week.
Have nice reading and be pleased to comment if you want.

So, what happens last week?
I will call last week a rollercoaster week and I think we are going to see several weeks like that in May.
Even if we went through many mountains and valleys, at the end we are approximatively still in the range 15172 15412.

Monday to Wednesday: GER30 started a fall waiting for the bad news on the US inflation. Finally, the expected news came out. It was even worse than expected but the effect was already taken into account in the price thus it doesn’t affect really the GER30 or the NSDQ100.

Thursday: Even if it was a normal day on the stock market, it was an holiday in a lot of countries. In my opinion, that is one of the reason why it was selected for an important portfolio rollover using the pretext of inflation.

Friday: Continuation of the uptrend confirmed by the bad news in US on Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales. That the paradox of the current situation: the worst is the situation in the US, the more the stock are going to perform…


This week, I took the opportunity given by the important portfolio rollover to almost close all my positions. And when it returns over 1500, I gradually sold positions in order to have my current breakeven around 15300 and an amount of almost 10% of my portfolio on GER30 in case a big event happen.

My perspective for next week:
- 30%: GER30 rise to is top 15514 and don’t go higher;
- 30%: GER30 rise over is top;
- 30% : GER30 stay in the range 15176- 15412;
- 10%: GER30 fall under 15176;

What to follow next week?
Globally:
- The situation in India and the possible discovery of an Indian coronavirus case in Germany or in Europe;
- Inflation: the rise of petrol and other raw material;
- The US 10 years interest rates (which could also have an impact on NSDQ100);
- The transaction volumes.
Day by day:
- Monday: Chinese Industrial Production;
- Tuesday: Japanese GDP, UK unemployment, Euro zone GDP.
- Wednesday (the big day!):
- Inflation: UK, Euro zone, Canada;
- BCE report on financial stability;
- US: Crude Oil and FOMC Meeting Minutes;
- Thursday: German PPI, US: initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Christine Lagarde (BCE) & Kristalina Georgevia (FMI) speech at Vienna Economic Dialogue (12.00 UTC)
- Friday:
- Inflation: Japan;
- PMI: Japan, Euro zone, UK & US;
- Retail Sales: UK & Canada.

Little surprise: This week I decided to share with you my daily graph on GER30, in order to show you the canal I am currently following. A canal which became a resistance in April. Nevertheless, most of my current strategy is created around the fact that in my opinion GER30 will at least reintegrate this canal in the coming weeks/months.

I wish you a good trading week,

Please feel free to ask me questions, I will be glad to connect with you over the comments or by private messages.
Stay safe,
Alexandre