Tickmill
Short

Why Pound is limited to the upside

FX:GBPUSD   Britisches Pfund / US-Dollar
Consumer spending in the US, a key indicator of inflationary pressures increased in June faster than expected, but could not provide significant boost to the dollar, which renewed slump on Wednesday. Manufacturing sector health also didn't give rise to disappointment, but seems there is nothing to inspire Dollar bulls at the moment . Dollar index moves near the level of 93.00 indicates that further decline may require fresh catalysts, however the main bearish events have already been put into the market. On Wednesday and Friday, the investor will try to "arm" with good ADP and NFP data to raise the dollar from the knees, and for EURUSD it’d be fine to bounce a bit after a long period of growth. Testing of the level 1.1860 today indicates that the market was looking for a good entry for short positions, so those who have not yet joined the "global rally euro" trade, it is reasonable to jump in only next week, after the market plays out NFP.

The UK construction sector continues to receive a blow after the blow, experiencing stagnation in the real estate market. The index of activity in the sector went worse than forecasts, but the secondary negative will probably remain unnoticed, as the focus is on the decision of the British Central Bank on Thursday. Inflation , taking a pause in June, allows officials to maintain a preventive stimulus, because what difficulties for the economy conceals Brexit are still unclear and in Mark Carney's opinion it is better to serve the “dish" slightly overheated than cold. The pound, of course, climbs higher, so that on soft comments it's good to break down. The only fundamental rationale for a strong pound is strong exports, but here one must also remember that it was paradoxically dependent on a weak currency.

Oil prices remain stable before the release of EIA data, the news background remains relatively favorable after the meeting of OPEC, data on US stocks still do not bring a strong negative. Gold prices fell by half a percentage point, the first alarm bell that NFP data could shift the balance in favor of hawkish rhetoric at the next Fed meeting.
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This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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