Trying GBPCAD lower here.
potential double top forming at a decent resistance level, this resistance level is also there for GBPUSD.
the CAD narrative has been improving lately, economic data has been good, the labour market is strong and inflation is still quite high. We have the BoC meeting this week and while i don't think they hike i think they could be a little more hawkish in terms of talking down the rate cuts this year. GBP has been improving for a little while now and i'm not so sure people will want to chase GBPUSD above the topside of it's range.
correlations suggest lower, rate differentials are a little lower but oil is much higher, i've inverted oil on the chart above so that you can see that GBPCAD has been closely correlated with oil. With china reopening this year oil could push further and that could mean a move lower in GBPCAD.
Sentiment and positioning for the pair are pretty high so that should help limit upside movement.
Seasonals are good for GBP and CAD for April so these should cancel each other out roughly.
Not 100% sure on this one but i think it makes sense.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
potential double top forming at a decent resistance level, this resistance level is also there for GBPUSD.
the CAD narrative has been improving lately, economic data has been good, the labour market is strong and inflation is still quite high. We have the BoC meeting this week and while i don't think they hike i think they could be a little more hawkish in terms of talking down the rate cuts this year. GBP has been improving for a little while now and i'm not so sure people will want to chase GBPUSD above the topside of it's range.
correlations suggest lower, rate differentials are a little lower but oil is much higher, i've inverted oil on the chart above so that you can see that GBPCAD has been closely correlated with oil. With china reopening this year oil could push further and that could mean a move lower in GBPCAD.
Sentiment and positioning for the pair are pretty high so that should help limit upside movement.
Seasonals are good for GBP and CAD for April so these should cancel each other out roughly.
Not 100% sure on this one but i think it makes sense.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!