As we head into next week, I’m maintaining a bearish stance on the EUR/USD pair based on several technical indicators:
MACD Analysis: The MACD remains firmly below the zero line, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. This trend suggests that the downward pressure is likely to persist.
Price Rejection at 1.08641: The market has repeatedly failed to break above the 1.08641 level, highlighting this resistance point as a significant barrier. This consistent rejection signals a potential for further declines.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: We are currently hovering around the 50.00% and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement levels, which are crucial for determining potential reversal points. The 61.80% level, known as the golden line, often acts as a strong resistance level in downtrends.
Target Level: Given the current technical landscape, my target for EUR/USD is set at the previous week’s Point of Control (POC) at 1.08250. This level is likely to attract price action if the bearish trend continues.
Current Position: Even if we see a close above last week’s POC, the persistent rejection at 1.08641 and the MACD positioning below the zero line suggest that any upward movement might be limited and short-lived.
In summary, the technical setup points to continued bearish pressure on EUR/USD, with significant resistance at the 1.08641 level and crucial Fibonacci levels reinforcing the downside potential. Watch for price action around the 1.08250 target as a key point for assessing further moves. Analysis invalid when price cross above 1.08684.
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