EURUSD | Long Trade on Daily and M15 Charts

25. Jan.

The future of the EUR/USD is uncertain, with the possibility of further declines if the support level of 1.0821 is breached. In case of a descent, it could test the 100-day moving average at 1.0774 and then touch the December 2023 low of 1.0723. The negative outlook would intensify if it surpasses the key 200-day moving average at 1.0843. On the positive side, the pair needs to surpass the weekly high of 1.0998 to open the door for a possible visit to the December peak of 1.1139. In the short term, the pair seems to be consolidating near 1.0820. Technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI suggest downward pressure, with the RSI falling below the 40 level. Events such as the ECB press conference and German economic data influence the sentiment of the EUR/USD, with the lack of surprises leading to a decline on Thursday. Contrasting economic prospects between Europe and the United States, along with positive signals from the U.S. GDP, have contributed to supporting the dollar. The Federal Reserve appears inclined to delay an interest rate cut until at least May, according to market probabilities. The release of PCE-measured inflation on Friday could further influence interest rate expectations. In summary, the current context suggests uncertainty in the future movements of the EUR/USD, with economic factors and decisions from the ECB and the Federal Reserve having a significant impact on the currency pair's outlook. Therefore, I consider it safer to evaluate a trade on the daily chart, where I observe a neater chart setup. I have identified a demand zone where the price could retrace to rotate and provide a long entry confirmation at the 15-minute chart, with a target set at the level of 1.1142, where we have a significant liquidity zone yet to be filled. Greetings and happy trading to all.