EUR/USD: Tech outlook and review...
Weekly gain/loss: + 24 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.1773
Following three consecutive weekly bullish candles, the shared currency stamped in an eye-catching weekly selling wick during the course of last week’s trading. Could this, even though price closed the week a tad beyond weekly resistance at 1.1759, be enough to encourage further selling this week? If this turns out to be the case, the next downside target can be seen at a major weekly support area carved from 1.1533-1.1278.
Zooming in and looking at the daily picture, we can see that supply drawn from 1.1870-1.1786 held firm, despite suffering multiple upside breaks. The move dragged the major down to the top edge of a daily demand base marked at 1.1650-1.1733, which, as you can see, saw the unit print a minor end-of day correction.
On Friday, The US non-farm payrolls number came in hotter than expected at 209k jobs, beating a market consensus of 182k jobs. The release triggered a violent selloff, taking out both the H4 mid-level support at 1.1850 and the 1.18 handle. It was only once price whipsawed through the H4 mid-level number at 1.1750 and challenged the H4 demand at 1.1723-1.1744 (converges with a H4 61.8% Fib support at 1.1726 taken from the low 1.1612 and also glued to the top edge of the said daily demand) did the market begin to show signs of bottoming.
Our suggestions: While the weekly selling wick may spark interest among the candlestick community, we feel selling into both the aforesaid H4 and daily demands (in such a strong trending environment) is not a trade we’d label high probability. On the other side of the coin, there’s unfortunately also little room for buys at this time, given how close daily price is trading to the underside of daily supply at 1.1786.
With the above notes in mind, neither a long nor short seems attractive at this time.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaskari takes the stage at 6.25pm GMT+1.
Weekly closing price: 1.1773
Following three consecutive weekly bullish candles, the shared currency stamped in an eye-catching weekly selling wick during the course of last week’s trading. Could this, even though price closed the week a tad beyond weekly resistance at 1.1759, be enough to encourage further selling this week? If this turns out to be the case, the next downside target can be seen at a major weekly support area carved from 1.1533-1.1278.
Zooming in and looking at the daily picture, we can see that supply drawn from 1.1870-1.1786 held firm, despite suffering multiple upside breaks. The move dragged the major down to the top edge of a daily demand base marked at 1.1650-1.1733, which, as you can see, saw the unit print a minor end-of day correction.
On Friday, The US non-farm payrolls number came in hotter than expected at 209k jobs, beating a market consensus of 182k jobs. The release triggered a violent selloff, taking out both the H4 mid-level support at 1.1850 and the 1.18 handle. It was only once price whipsawed through the H4 mid-level number at 1.1750 and challenged the H4 demand at 1.1723-1.1744 (converges with a H4 61.8% Fib support at 1.1726 taken from the low 1.1612 and also glued to the top edge of the said daily demand) did the market begin to show signs of bottoming.
Our suggestions: While the weekly selling wick may spark interest among the candlestick community, we feel selling into both the aforesaid H4 and daily demands (in such a strong trending environment) is not a trade we’d label high probability. On the other side of the coin, there’s unfortunately also little room for buys at this time, given how close daily price is trading to the underside of daily supply at 1.1786.
With the above notes in mind, neither a long nor short seems attractive at this time.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaskari takes the stage at 6.25pm GMT+1.
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