Interesting PA seen on EU, traders...
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis:
Long term, EUR/USD’s primary trend has faced a southerly trajectory since topping in mid-July 2008, at 1.6038. Activity on the monthly chart remains languishing south of a resistance area at 1.2048/1.1653 as well as a trendline resistance (1.6038).
Downside risk remains on this timeframe until connecting with the support area marked at 1.0742/1.0333. Note the pair trades lower by 2.27% on the month.
Daily timeframe:
Since retesting 1.1109/1.1066, the unit has retained a strong underlying offer, consuming a support zone at 1.0962/1.0925 and recently tunnelling deep within a support zone at 1.0822/1.0879, boasting history as far back as March 2016. Continued downside from here, and assuming a break of 1.0822/1.0879, the pathway appears clear on this timeframe to 1.0947/1.0582, another support zone.
The RSI also drove further into oversold territory – currently trades at 23.82.
H4 timeframe:
1.0826/1.0851, a support area drawn from mid-October 2016, is under threat. Reinforcing this zone is a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 1.0839. Note this H4 zone also resides within the lower boundary of the daily timeframe’s current support zone at 1.0822/1.0879.
Should the market maintain a bearish presence and overthrow the current H4 support zone, a large gap is visible beneath here (April 23rd 2017), with the next layer of support falling in around the 1.0680/1.0704 region. Therefore, a decisive push lower from current price could prompt additional losses in this market.
H1 timeframe:
Short-term development shows EUR/USD continued its demise Thursday, breaking yesterday’s low and the 1.0850 mid-round number. The fall appears to be taking cues from a strong US dollar index, which firmed above the 99.00 handle. US inflation figures did little to sway the action.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics reported. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in January after increasing 0.1 percent in December.
Technically, the candlesticks remain within a descending channel formation (1.1014/1.0964), poised to approach the 1.08 handle. The general sense is a push for 1.08 from here. Indicator flows still has the RSI attempting to climb from oversold terrain, rebounding from familiar RSI support around 20.13.
It may also interest traders to pencil in both the 100/50-period SMAs, dipping south since the 50-period value crossed its slower counterpart at the beginning of February.
Direction:
Attacking 1.08 today implies a break of daily support at 1.0822/1.0879 and the H4 support area at 1.0826/1.0851, likely tapping sell stops.
Potential bearish scenarios may develop at the underside of 1.0850 today, particularly at the point the level merges with channel resistance on the H1 from 1.1014. Aside from 1.08, the ultimate downside target rests at the top edge of monthly support from 1.0742.
Monthly timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis:
Long term, EUR/USD’s primary trend has faced a southerly trajectory since topping in mid-July 2008, at 1.6038. Activity on the monthly chart remains languishing south of a resistance area at 1.2048/1.1653 as well as a trendline resistance (1.6038).
Downside risk remains on this timeframe until connecting with the support area marked at 1.0742/1.0333. Note the pair trades lower by 2.27% on the month.
Daily timeframe:
Since retesting 1.1109/1.1066, the unit has retained a strong underlying offer, consuming a support zone at 1.0962/1.0925 and recently tunnelling deep within a support zone at 1.0822/1.0879, boasting history as far back as March 2016. Continued downside from here, and assuming a break of 1.0822/1.0879, the pathway appears clear on this timeframe to 1.0947/1.0582, another support zone.
The RSI also drove further into oversold territory – currently trades at 23.82.
H4 timeframe:
1.0826/1.0851, a support area drawn from mid-October 2016, is under threat. Reinforcing this zone is a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 1.0839. Note this H4 zone also resides within the lower boundary of the daily timeframe’s current support zone at 1.0822/1.0879.
Should the market maintain a bearish presence and overthrow the current H4 support zone, a large gap is visible beneath here (April 23rd 2017), with the next layer of support falling in around the 1.0680/1.0704 region. Therefore, a decisive push lower from current price could prompt additional losses in this market.
H1 timeframe:
Short-term development shows EUR/USD continued its demise Thursday, breaking yesterday’s low and the 1.0850 mid-round number. The fall appears to be taking cues from a strong US dollar index, which firmed above the 99.00 handle. US inflation figures did little to sway the action.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics reported. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in January after increasing 0.1 percent in December.
Technically, the candlesticks remain within a descending channel formation (1.1014/1.0964), poised to approach the 1.08 handle. The general sense is a push for 1.08 from here. Indicator flows still has the RSI attempting to climb from oversold terrain, rebounding from familiar RSI support around 20.13.
It may also interest traders to pencil in both the 100/50-period SMAs, dipping south since the 50-period value crossed its slower counterpart at the beginning of February.
Direction:
Attacking 1.08 today implies a break of daily support at 1.0822/1.0879 and the H4 support area at 1.0826/1.0851, likely tapping sell stops.
Potential bearish scenarios may develop at the underside of 1.0850 today, particularly at the point the level merges with channel resistance on the H1 from 1.1014. Aside from 1.08, the ultimate downside target rests at the top edge of monthly support from 1.0742.
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