Final chance for previous idea to come to fruition

If it can get back into the channel and above the 200ema i believe eth will go to a minimum of 1250-1270, if it cannot hold the last breakdown point thought are looking for a brutal drop likely to 1100 and below. Based on probabilities and fundemental analysis i think my idea is more likely. However, i am surprised that it broke the higher lower pattern on the 4h this is somewhat concerning. Be cautious