ETHUSD: Improving Structure, But Relative Weakness Prevails.

ETHUSD Update: Even with the Bitcoin surge, this market cannot push above 300. Even though short term structure is attempting to improve, this market looks like it is leaning toward a bearish continuation more than anything else.

At S.C., we have been bullish on Bitcoin. We bought at 6189 when the herd of "experts" were sure it was going to 5K. We still own some in our inventory along with a few of the alts. Ethereum is one of the alts and we will not be looking to add until it can close above 320 at a minimum.

This does not mean we buy at 320. A close above 320 allows us to begin evaluating price structures and patterns again for potential trades. Many newer traders do not understand the concept of having a good defense is just as important as participating in high probability trade setups.

The problem with Ethereum is the consolidation that is forming can turn out to be a continuation pattern toward lower prices. A close below the 280 level will further confirm this scenario.

This is why we wait for the market to prove itself before continuing to add or look for new trades. If price instead breaks back above 300 and closes beyond 320, then that will help to negate the potential bearish structure. Keep in mind there is a negative sloping trend line around the 350 area which is another obstacle this market must face.

In summary, while other alts like BCH and LTC have shown significant improvement, Ethereum has not. This can change, but at S.C., we let the market prove itself and do not get caught up in irrelevant opinions or feelings.

Our objective is to deploy capital across markets that are displaying strength. Although this market is trying, it is currently in a position that lends itself to more of a bearish bias. What happens if Bitcoin retraces significantly? We continue to hold our inventory and remain bullish in the long run, but until structure improves, we will continue to wait on the sidelines with it comes to this market.