- I am returning to my original analysis. I was persuaded by other TA and recounting that the Irregular Top I originally saw in the ETH ATH was wrong, and was actually a 5th extension. (Theoretically speaking, I think all 5th extensions have some corrective nature, and are in reality, Irregular Tops, but that's a whole other conversation!)
- Returning to that analysis, we see a failed 5th in the A down, preceded by a very potent, long and high 4th wave, with lots of noise. Very short B, with 3 major waves, followed by this 5 wave C, which bounced out of its 3rd wave almost exactly on the wave baseline set by the 0 point of this 3rd wave overall, and the low of the A of the 4th within that. Interestingly, if market action consolidates and tightens, this whole thing will look like a triangle 4th, meaning we could see 5th extensions coming up when ETH destroys BTC's market dominance starting late spring/early summer.
- If, however, the baseline is broken, which I would expect, since it's the wave baseline of a lower degree, and not the Macro Trend, we will see low 700's again. The main questions now are:
- (a) How long will the 4th be
- (b) How deep will the 5th go
- (c) Are we charting the correct degree?!
- Lots to think about here. Looking for a buy near the low 700's again.
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The dotted orange baseline comes from the original 0 point of the Macro Trend, and connects the 2 terminus. Pretty closely related! :D
Also interesting is the MASSIVE red volume spike, signalling a potential bottom. This leaves 2 possibilities IMO:
1. The 5th is in, and we are entering a larger B wave upwards, or
2. The 5th will be failed and the market action will tighten into the B bounce.
Possible that the 5th of the 5th of C may stretch out.
Ugly fractals bottoming soon.
Bullish Div on the long and short term %b
Lower $600's still possible though.
Looking confirmed that we are onto a new waveset. In my longer term view, the corrections are set to go on until at least late March or early April, based on the length of the 2nd wave, however it is indeed possible that ETH enters the 5th wave motive set from this point. That would mean breaking away from the correlation and market dominance of BTC in the wider view.