ES - October 15th - Daily Trade Plan

gestern

October 15th - 6:25am

*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *

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My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.

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I am not going to go into much detail about yesterday as I have detailed out the trades that I took, which aligned with my edge. It was a great short squeeze yesterday and it all played out at the optimal timeframe while I was at my desk.

The overnight low is 6683 and our overnight high is 6732. I stated in the 4:52pm note yesterday that " Any reclaim of 6692-94 would be bullish overnight and give us another attempt at the 6720 level to take price higher." - This is what happened and we have grinded into some overhead resistance at 6732 with 6738-42 being a strong resistance.

Since price grinded slowly higher overnight, my lean is we need a pullback to keep things moving higher.

While I do not rely solely on technical bull/bear flags, the white trendlines that are drawn, could be a bearish structure that could reach 6742-44 area, then pullback to the 6642 area. The white trendline moving up, IF, price reaches it, should give us a nice bounce for points, then we would expect price to lose this level and move lower.
(IF, price does pull back and we take out the 6744-48 level and are successful, any back test should be good for price to move higher, this would also make the bear flag invalid)

Levels I am looking to grab some points at today:
1. Any loss and reclaim of 6705
2. Loss of 6683 and reclaim (maybe getting as low as 6666 and then reclaim 6674)
3. Loss of 6660 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6632 and reclaim (could be the bounce of the white trendline)
5. Loss of 6593 and reclaim (Yesterday's low)

Below those levels and we will most likely be in free fall to retest the 6540 level which could be the last area to give us a bounce.

IF, price loses any levels lower than 6540, you will want to be patient and let price build a base to take a long on the reclaim of a level above.

Key Support Levels - 6720, 6705, 6683, 6674, 6660, 6642, 6632, 6624, 6593, 6575, 6550, 6540
Key Resistance Levels - 6732, 6744-48, 6758, 6778

IF, price rallies above 6732 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above.

I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows

gestern

Anmerkung

8:40am - Update

While price can still go higher, I would be cautious going long at the current levels. Couple of observations. The RSI for the 1hr chart is very extended at 93, (This alone does not mean we will flush lower). You can look at 1hr chart and see the flag pattern, I discuss in the daily trade plan. We are at the top end of the range. I anticipate Institutions to allow retail to buy the open, but I expect selling to come in at some point today. I would be patient and wait on the levels discussed in the daily trade plan. IF, price is selling off sharply. DO NOT RUSH into buying at each level. Let it flush and reclaim and wait to see the reclaim of a lower timeframe structure that is recovered. Make sure to take profit at each level. After a nice run yesterday. It does not mean we will get a similar run up the levels today.

gestern

Anmerkung

9:22am - Update

As I have watched price action this am, the 6720 level could be a good level IF, we flush and reclaim it. In my trade plan, I have 6705 as my first level. While that is still what I am looking for, I also recognize that we do not always pull back to overnight or previous day's lows. (6705 is one of those levels that do not adhere to my core level setups) You have to improvise and recognize what price is doing in real-time. My lean is still that we are at the top of the range, while we may get a pop at the open, I do believe we get a decent pull back. IF, price opens up in the first 30 mins and we have not lost 6705, I would be watching for any flush of 6720 and reclaim. You could wait for the reclaim of 6732, also. Expect some volatility in the first 30 mins as Bulls/Bears battle it out on direction for the day.

gestern

Anmerkung

10am - Update

Price opened up and held the 6725 level in the first 30 mins. Price is coming into the 6750-52 resistance. IF, price loses 6725, we could flush pretty hard and I would get out the way. I am still patiently waiting on lower levels, but 6720 will no longer be an option for me, especially, now that we have held that level and rallied into resistance at the open. 1hr RSI is at 97 and we should still get a healthy pullback if this rally is to keep going higher. I would NOT BE CHASING at this level. I could be very wrong, but I would rather wait on a pull back to enter than trying to chase after the open.

gestern

Anmerkung

11:58am - Update

Price flushed as I was anticipating. We fell to 6702, reclaimed 6705 and I am in a position at 6706 and just sold 1/2 position at 6715. Runner is at 6710. Price will most likely not clear the 6720 level and should retest and lose the 6705 level, so there should be another opportunity to long at levels below. IF, price does clear 6720, a back test and hold of that level could be a good spot to continue higher. I think we need to at a minimum retest the 6705 level one more time and see if price can hold or we can look at 6783 flush and reclaim up next.

gestern

Anmerkung

12:10pm - Update
I moved my runner stop up to 6720 and price can back test 6732, I still do not believe this move higher will hold and we will still need to retest the recent low at 6702.

vor 21 Stunden

Anmerkung

1:45pm - Update

My runner stopped out earlier as discussed above. I did take my last position on the reclaim of 6683 and have my stop at 6684. I will sell 1/2 position at 6693 and leave a runner with a stop at 6689. This is my last trade of the day.

vor 21 Stunden

Anmerkung

1:49pm - Update

That was quick. Sold 1/2 position at 6693 and will sell this runner at 6703 or it will stop out at 6695. IF, price is bullish it should continue to test 6720. IF, price does not clear 6705 then I would see what happens on a back test as it could go lower. I am going to take the afternoon off my desk. I will send out the daily trade plan tomorrow by 6am EST.

vor 21 Stunden

Anmerkung

2:02pm - Update
I wanted to point out that I did not take the 6660 reclaim. I want to make sure the reason is discussed. When we flushed 6660 down to 6653, we bounced, and I was expecting price to retest 6660. It back tested at 6662.50 and then rallied to 6674 (which was my next level up) I did not want to enter a trade at the next resistance level and also it would have been a 10pt stop due to how fast it took off. I patiently waited for it to build a base because I knew that IF price was going to hold, the clearance of 6682 with an entry of 6683 would be a much better risk/reward. You can see that at 1:26pm on 1min chart we had a rejection at 6681. I could then see we had buyers stepping in at 6668. I then had a clear runway that IF, price cleared 6681, we should be in the clear. I took the position at 6683 at 1:35pm candle and then had a stop at 6680. We held and rallied up from there. That is a brief summary, because the reclaim of 6660 was still a great trade. It just was too much Risk/Reward based on how it rallied.