ES / S&P Futures Technical Analysis & Key Areas

At the 50% Fib Retraceemnt level 4/15. Broadening ranges where buyers and sellers test each other's resolve, and key areas to hold up to maintain bull trend. April has been an amazing month.

End of April will be interesting. Options expire this Friday and we may have pensions rebalancing to sell some equities instead of buy for May. Hedge funds dipping their toes, and retail is still heavily short.

Kommentar:

Beginning to look like a head and shoulders pattern, however the bullishness as the result of the massive QE may not be finished yet. The market is at a real decsion point.

This week I'm seeing signs of shares passing ownership from big boys to pikers, noticing a lot of size offers on the tape that get taken out by smaller offers. Of coruse this is imposisble to know for sure.

Also seeing rotation into the bottom of the market, weakness in small caps and financials.

Cracking signs for the bull run are there. Most names I follow are very overbought. We could use a breather in any case.

Kommentar:

Breather that broke bullish. Trader sentiment is so bearish, we keep pushing up. Short sellers have *still* not capitulated, so I have to believe the rally has another leg. Probably until they buy their shorts because the news turns positive. hedge funds are still on the sidelines, and commercial hedgers are max long.