Same setup as last week. ES continues to trade just below the Dec 13th high and downward trendline. Closed last week at the high of range so breakout this week is possible, but I plan to trade the recent range until it breaks.
SUMMARY • ES posted a 1.0% loss last week after trading in a range of 143 points. • ES traded down the first 4 days of the week but rallied on Friday to close above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma. • Strongest sectors last week were XLP & XLK. Weakest were XLE & XLC • ES closed just below the long term downward trendline • Positive reaction to FOMC rate hike and bank failures • Key catalyst this week will be the CPI data on Wednesday • Earnings this week include reports from LCID, PLUG, DIS, RIVN, ABNB, PYPL, TTD, CELH & HOOD • Sell in May psychological effect in play • Market trading like it expects a pause in rate hikes
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Wholesale inventories NY Feb Inflation expectations Tuesday Fed’s Jefferson & Williams speak Wednesday US CPI & EIA Crude Inventories Thursday BoE Rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims & US PPI + Fed’s Waller speaks Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
Successfully held another test of the MTF 618 Fib RT (4072) Bullish close on Friday recovering from 4 down days Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA 50 SMA is above the 200 SMA Potential positive reaction to CPI & earnings Potential break above the Dec 13th high 10 year yield holding below 4% Market expects a rate pause now.
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at descending trendline & Dec 13th high VIX is at 17 and due for a spike. Sell in May psychological effect Potential negative reaction to CPI data and earnings Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend More potential bank failures. Defensive XLP sector remains strong
Kommentar
Waiting on some bullish continuation following the CPI data. ES_F is lagging and holding back the NQ_F. Still fighting to get over the downward trendline and move higher. Watching the recent pivot high for a sign price will continue higher upside target is Dec 13th high. Move above that level would be very bullish.
Kommentar
ES_F So far every time price breaks the trendline a retest has failed & dropped below again. Bullish cont' will happen when the retest of the trendline holds.
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