ES March Contract view 18/12/2022
Aktualisiert
See my previous posts on ES December contract which has now expired or will expire soon. I have now switched to the March contract.
This week we broke a lower upward sloping trendline that has held since at least June 30th. The price also failed to hold above the 200 Day MA and the upper declining trendline that has held since January 4th 2022.
On the Bullish side - short term
Daily price action is still above the daily Ichimoku Cloud
Is likely to bounce up from the 50 Day MA and retest the 3900 break out area, the 3935 area where we had previous support then on to 3979 which is the Fibonacci .382 re trace level of the 13th December high to the 16th December low . I think this will be our brief "Santa Clause" rally before the downside resumes in the New Year.
I'm no longer confident that we'll see a sustained rally above the 200 Day MA before year end
On The Bearish side - longer term
A strong bearish reversal pattern in the weekly Japanese candles
A retest of the bottom side of a trend line going back to at least June 30th happened last week as per my previous post
A retest and failure to hold above the downward sloping trend line that has held since 4th January this year has happened as per my previous post
A bounce from the bottom of the Weekly Ichimoku cloud
The 9 period RSI on the Daily chart is declining and has further to go before it shows oversold
The MFi Money Flow Indicator is declining
Levels to watch on the downside
Once we get a daily close below the 50 day MA we're headed for
weekly S1 pivot at 3760
weekly S2 pivot at 3650
Lowest close in October of 3597
Summary - preferred view
A potential bounce up from 50 Day MA of 3879 towards 3979 over the next week
Early New Year decline to levels suggested above
The bigger picture is we are in year 2 of the 4 year cycle that historically sees markets move higher over the next 2 years.
Alternative view
A dally close below the 50 Day MA might see a more decisive down turn before year end. Remembering December 2018 (for example)
About me - I'm a qualified Technical Analyst, a member of The Society of Technical Analysts in London and ,I trade my own capital part time. ES1 / SPX is my most traded instrument and I've been trading it for over 20 years. If you find my analysis useful please do hit the like and follow buttons. As a member of the Society of Technical Analysts I am providing market analysis only and NOT financial advice of any kind.
This week we broke a lower upward sloping trendline that has held since at least June 30th. The price also failed to hold above the 200 Day MA and the upper declining trendline that has held since January 4th 2022.
On the Bullish side - short term
Daily price action is still above the daily Ichimoku Cloud
Is likely to bounce up from the 50 Day MA and retest the 3900 break out area, the 3935 area where we had previous support then on to 3979 which is the Fibonacci .382 re trace level of the 13th December high to the 16th December low . I think this will be our brief "Santa Clause" rally before the downside resumes in the New Year.
I'm no longer confident that we'll see a sustained rally above the 200 Day MA before year end
On The Bearish side - longer term
A strong bearish reversal pattern in the weekly Japanese candles
A retest of the bottom side of a trend line going back to at least June 30th happened last week as per my previous post
A retest and failure to hold above the downward sloping trend line that has held since 4th January this year has happened as per my previous post
A bounce from the bottom of the Weekly Ichimoku cloud
The 9 period RSI on the Daily chart is declining and has further to go before it shows oversold
The MFi Money Flow Indicator is declining
Levels to watch on the downside
Once we get a daily close below the 50 day MA we're headed for
weekly S1 pivot at 3760
weekly S2 pivot at 3650
Lowest close in October of 3597
Summary - preferred view
A potential bounce up from 50 Day MA of 3879 towards 3979 over the next week
Early New Year decline to levels suggested above
The bigger picture is we are in year 2 of the 4 year cycle that historically sees markets move higher over the next 2 years.
Alternative view
A dally close below the 50 Day MA might see a more decisive down turn before year end. Remembering December 2018 (for example)
About me - I'm a qualified Technical Analyst, a member of The Society of Technical Analysts in London and ,I trade my own capital part time. ES1 / SPX is my most traded instrument and I've been trading it for over 20 years. If you find my analysis useful please do hit the like and follow buttons. As a member of the Society of Technical Analysts I am providing market analysis only and NOT financial advice of any kind.
Trade ist aktiv
Correction Note The first line above should read
This week we broke a lower upward sloping trendline that has held since at least mid October. The price also failed to hold above the 200 Day MA and the upper declining trendline that has held since January 4th 2022.
The trend line broken dates back to mid October , not June 30th.
Trade ist aktiv
As per my Alternative view above we had a close below the 50 Day MA yesterday and a bounce up from the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Now I think it's a trip further down and a matter of selling the rallies.
Levels to watch on the downside
Once we get a daily close below the 50 day MA we're headed for
weekly S1 pivot at 3760
weekly S2 pivot at 3650
Lowest close in October of 3597
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