US 30 preparing for parabolic?

11. Nov. 2019

In Mid-Nov there is a critical inflection point at 27300 at support from consolidation zone and rising TL in this bullish impulse.

At this writing, DJIA index rests just at or above long TL reaching back to Jan 2018 top. Equities have advanced for >5 weeks. A small, brief pullback seems likely.

If it gives a price relaxation back to the breakout zone at 273, that could be a long entry opportunity for a parabolic mad dash akin to the Jan 2018 explosion.

We've had several uncertainty Dojis, a shooting star and a hanging man. Modest bearish price action is likely to be brief; if you're short, take what the market gives.

This isn't investing advice, just an observation with inference. ANYthing can happen now; GLTA!

12. Nov. 2019

Trade ist aktiv

Got a nominal new high intraday. Forming a shooting star but wait for the close to confirm this. Holding Dec 278 DIA puts, among others.

12. Nov. 2019

Anmerkung

FYI fund managers are now only 4% in cash, 96% invested, a level not seen since 2013. MFI will dry up, RSI will diverge, prices will retreat. Econ 101.

FYI divergence in DJT is driven by two rail carriers, may not be representative, regional coal demand slumped: marketwatch.com/story/dow-transports-dragged-down-by-csx-and-norfolk-southern-stocks-as-dow-industrials-gains-2019-11-12?mod=mw_latestnews

Have a look at figures 3, 5 in this fund flow report:
yardeni.com/pub/ecoindiciwk.pdf

MFI into funds has fallen to near-record lows as prices climb into thin air.

NB: BUffet index; the ratio of market capitalization to US GDP, is now 138%, near record highs; Buffet considers 140% as 'extreme danger' and is sitting on cash...

15. Nov. 2019

Trade ist aktiv

Looks like a Fifth wave extension to double top. Overbought 99% now; and NQ formed the Titanic and Hindenburg cross yesterday on 14 Nov, internal divergence:

marketwatch.com/story/an-ominous-sounding-hindenburg-omen-and-a-ohama-titanic-syndrome-are-forming-in-a-key-stock-market-index-2019-11-14?mod=home-page

When complacency and greed reach maximum it will break sharp and sudden. be ready!

21. Nov. 2019

Trade ist aktiv

See my related post. Appears to have entered countertend down move right on schedule in Fibo time, began 19 Nov on session 17, acclerated on 20 Nov and futurez suggest more red on 21 Nov. Most counter-trends last only 5-6 sessions, and rarely more than 10 sessions. Monday 25th will be crucial action session.

Wave 2 was very soft and shallow; expect a deeper, sharper sell on Wave 4; these countertrends typically alternate intensity. Target is 27200 - 27300; however 26800 is possible second support, so don't plunge into calls too soon.

Fibo time on this countertrend move may expire between 7 - 12 sessions; the 29th is the slowest trading day of year, so I'd watch for pivot action reversal back up on the week of 2 Dec.

21. Nov. 2019

Trade ist aktiv

IMO this modest pullback may be all we get; Closed out the shorts and took a few Dec calls in a bull spread, as indices appear to be forming higher low. Pattern has been a smallish sell followed by more FOMO BTFD. Take what the markets give. Holding UVXY and April $20 VIX calls for long-term bear bet. Play ur hand close to chest IMO; good chance to get scalped on whipsaws. I rather expected a real double top with return to prices near the ATH before the real break. Wildly unpredictable!