TIME TO SHORT - HALVING PRICE

TIME TO SHORT - ICHIMOKU CLOUD - 1D

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Network hashrate and difficulty have been just as volatile as price over the past few months. The third block reward halving is less than 30 days away, which has the possibility of decreasing mining profitability substantially if price does not rise to make up the difference. There are also four new ASICs set for release this year which may help keep hashrate elevated post-halving.

Transactions per day have increased dramatically over the past month, while monthly active addresses remain near eight-month highs. Both NVT and MVRV, which are inversely related to on-chain activity, have decreased substantially over the past time period, suggesting oversold conditions relative to the Bitcoin market cap and on-chain utility.

Technicals for BTC/USD suggest a successful mean reversion attempt after the 62% drop from February to March 12th. The trend remains bearish with the current spot price below both the 200-day EMA and the Cloud. Based on yearly pivots and volume, US$8,100 is key overhead resistance, while US$6,400 should act as significant support.

Historically, legacy markets will also need to stabilize in order for buyers to return to the crypto market. In the months to come, Bitcoin may recover swiftly as quantitative easing and central bank money printing surge to unparalleled levels.

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