BTC - The Good, The Bad, and The Pretty
First off - I moved 80% of my portfolio to Tether after the 1st 3 hrs of trading. I'm still trading ETH and BTC, but its easier for me to move a large amount of a few coins than deal with 10 alt coins - more on that another day.
The Good - Selling volume is very weak. Certainly not a follow through of yesterday. The Asian market woke up to the shock and there was really no reaction. The European market the same. There is some residual selling, but its a real yawner. This is very important to me.
The Bad - Nobody wants to buy BTC here. There's enough residual selling to overpower the very little buying. Price found support at 46.5K yesterday, but the lack of buying has pushed prices down such that the support at 46.5K is acting like resistance as of now.
In summary, I liquidated and am positioned to move back in quickly, but the lack of buying is a concern. Nobody sees 46.5K as a great price? We loved it at 52K but wont touch it at 46.5K? Actually, yesterday put me back on my heels as well and I feel very hesitant to take a large trade . I continue to scalp the 46-47K range very successfully so why push the limit? It's a bit tiring to watch every 1 hr bar form, but eventually the market will tell me which way its going. I've locked in my gains, positioned myself to get back in quickly, and make decent profits trading the 46-47K range.
The Pretty - the bar i have circled was special. The balance of selling vs buying, starting at 0 UTC last night, wasnt healthy. Sellers were gaining steam pushing buyers back and back. At 44.5K big guns stepped in and stopped the price drop. It was very clear the Composite Man stepped in. Short sellers saw this and covered and we had a nice reversal bar. This is what I look for. Big money was in control and put a bottom in. I prefer to see that happen again, but as of that 1 hr bar, I was able to catch a bit of sleep.
What's next - Not sure. Selling and buying is dwindling. Volatility is easing. The market is digesting this move reasonably well. I'm 50/50 at this point so I opted to protect my gains at the expense of having to reenter at a higher price.
What happened yesterday? - Honestly, I dont know for sure. But, I it seems like we've seen this before.
1. We all knew that if this market was going to a new ATH, it was going to correct at least 1x before it gets there. Why? Because big money that writes all the futures/options isnt going to give away 10x and 100x gains to the retail market. Big money will consistently liquidate as many of those trades as possible. The road to a new ATH is paved with skepticism and doubt.
2. How hard is it create what happened yesterday? The move to 52 had very weak volume. The price would not sustain any reasonable selling. Starting at 0600 on 9/7, it took 2 hours of very light selling to notch the first big sell-off. I believe those were automatic 100x futures liquidations created when we all started to think BTC was going to the moon (even me :) ) The market responded with some buying, but it was clear that price was not holding. That started another sell-off and then big volumes of automatic liquidations started to cascade. That crashed the major exchanges so buyers couldnt step in with purchasing. The auto liquidations continued right to the bottom where eventually they ran dry. Any buyers who stepped in at 42-43K found no sellers so the price wicked up very quickly until the volume got to a level the exchanges could recover. The crypto market is highly leveraged, and highly automated, and that is what is behind these wild and crazy moves. It doesnt take a whole lot to cause one of these under the right circumstances.
My point - this wasnt real selling - it was automated selling (a market contrived mechanism). I'm bullish, but cautious. I'm looking for buyers to return.
The Good - Selling volume is very weak. Certainly not a follow through of yesterday. The Asian market woke up to the shock and there was really no reaction. The European market the same. There is some residual selling, but its a real yawner. This is very important to me.
The Bad - Nobody wants to buy BTC here. There's enough residual selling to overpower the very little buying. Price found support at 46.5K yesterday, but the lack of buying has pushed prices down such that the support at 46.5K is acting like resistance as of now.
In summary, I liquidated and am positioned to move back in quickly, but the lack of buying is a concern. Nobody sees 46.5K as a great price? We loved it at 52K but wont touch it at 46.5K? Actually, yesterday put me back on my heels as well and I feel very hesitant to take a large trade . I continue to scalp the 46-47K range very successfully so why push the limit? It's a bit tiring to watch every 1 hr bar form, but eventually the market will tell me which way its going. I've locked in my gains, positioned myself to get back in quickly, and make decent profits trading the 46-47K range.
The Pretty - the bar i have circled was special. The balance of selling vs buying, starting at 0 UTC last night, wasnt healthy. Sellers were gaining steam pushing buyers back and back. At 44.5K big guns stepped in and stopped the price drop. It was very clear the Composite Man stepped in. Short sellers saw this and covered and we had a nice reversal bar. This is what I look for. Big money was in control and put a bottom in. I prefer to see that happen again, but as of that 1 hr bar, I was able to catch a bit of sleep.
What's next - Not sure. Selling and buying is dwindling. Volatility is easing. The market is digesting this move reasonably well. I'm 50/50 at this point so I opted to protect my gains at the expense of having to reenter at a higher price.
What happened yesterday? - Honestly, I dont know for sure. But, I it seems like we've seen this before.
1. We all knew that if this market was going to a new ATH, it was going to correct at least 1x before it gets there. Why? Because big money that writes all the futures/options isnt going to give away 10x and 100x gains to the retail market. Big money will consistently liquidate as many of those trades as possible. The road to a new ATH is paved with skepticism and doubt.
2. How hard is it create what happened yesterday? The move to 52 had very weak volume. The price would not sustain any reasonable selling. Starting at 0600 on 9/7, it took 2 hours of very light selling to notch the first big sell-off. I believe those were automatic 100x futures liquidations created when we all started to think BTC was going to the moon (even me :) ) The market responded with some buying, but it was clear that price was not holding. That started another sell-off and then big volumes of automatic liquidations started to cascade. That crashed the major exchanges so buyers couldnt step in with purchasing. The auto liquidations continued right to the bottom where eventually they ran dry. Any buyers who stepped in at 42-43K found no sellers so the price wicked up very quickly until the volume got to a level the exchanges could recover. The crypto market is highly leveraged, and highly automated, and that is what is behind these wild and crazy moves. It doesnt take a whole lot to cause one of these under the right circumstances.
My point - this wasnt real selling - it was automated selling (a market contrived mechanism). I'm bullish, but cautious. I'm looking for buyers to return.
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