BTCUSD: Bitcoin Saturday Trade Set-Ups for the Aficionado

4. Aug. 2018

Bitcoin Saturday Trade Set-Ups for the Aficionado
BTCUSDT

BTCUSD: Bitcoin Saturday Trades for Die-Hards

A slow overnight session has given way to a slow start to Saturday trading.
Bitcoin has held up though and if still long here is about 80 points up on the last entry at 7375.
Looks like we're stuck with scalping still for now looking at the lack of interest in Europe this morning. The tight range and lack of volume suggests we're going to have to be happy enough with 90 to 200 point scalps at best this weekend.
Am raising the stop to 7449 for now on rest of this long position and looking for some interest to pick up later when US opens.
If it breaks the stop in the meantime will be looking to buy again off the dynamic with stop about 20 lower.
Alternatively can raise the stop to 7409 for smaller profit if hit and run it, looking for 7530-7540 initially and then 7652 once 7540 can be broken above.
Got two thirds of this long left.
Maybe will do one third and one third as above...in doubt so doing both is easiest way to handle this predicament for now.

On the downside Bitcoin has to break below 7410 on Tether feed to turn negative again - can reverse short from this point if looking to trade the next move, which should bring it down to 7360 initially where it will likely bounce again unless we see some decent volume building fast behind it (less likely on a weekend but still possible if whales are around - where are they all? They used come out to feed on weekends once upon a time. Been a long time.)

After bouncing again at 7360 back towards the underside of the dynamic at best it should then fall back to 7300-7280 at least and if not to 7211. Depends on volumes really.

This pattern looks to be just another continuation pattern within the overall downtrend so far. Although it's near term mildly positive the chart is still saying it has to come lower yet before we can call a real bottom.
Any break below 7211 offers a bigger short potential and can be followed back to 6815-6743.



20:37 Bst 15:37 Est Friday
Bitcoin Bitmex Update.
There was no volume on the break higher but it was still worth following for 100 -140 points from 7400 as it broke the upper dynamic.
Now it's come back to test the same dynamic from above. Should hold here and gives a chance to get long at low risk because the stop is close by.

It may not work. But the loss is small if so.
Stops below 7355 - can put an order in at 7375 - loss 20 .


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4. Aug. 2018

Anmerkung

Mofo stop!
BCHUSD

This is moving pretty much in-line with Bitcoin now, not out or under-performing really.
Cash is comingbackto test the super long-term dynamic which travels all the waay back to the very low and picks up every low since that day, with spikes on this line on the hourly chart.
Must hold up at 698 to create a spike and double bottom here ...

Should do in near term but will follow Bitcoin as usual. Failure to hold 698 over the weekend will mean a fast fall to 685 and then a more protracted decline to 661 and 645.

Spike appearinga as this is finished - behind it now... sheesh


Bitcoin Bitmex Bam
If you were j10 points smarter or patient than me with the stop it's come very close to the the ideal target at 7211 after a low at 7217.

So sorry to overmanage the stop largely due to impatience and doing other stuff - my bad.

Mofo. This is my bad stop management - it was MEANT to get as high as the dynamic underside at best before it came off again.

It isn't the chart's fault or bum signal.
Just bad stop management.
Try to learn from this.
It's good to know your friends' weak points, as well as your enemies after all.

This is good point to remind any newer members to check out the the notes on stops at the top of the page.

Next tradeable break lower comes on a fall below 7211-7200 for a decline to 6815.
Looks more likely to move sideways awhile first.



sumastardon, [4 Aug 2018 at 13:28:08]:
Beauiful Break just after the last update on Perp

Straight down to the line.
Bigger drop next. We got some action at last.
Anyone spotting any whales ???





Bitcoin Tether Chart Update


Bitcoin Bitstamp
It's finally hit the line it's been saying it should hit for days now.
Across every exchange.
Desperately trying to cling on the edge of the next precipice.
Not ready to jump yet....
But when it does we're gonna jump with it.
That may take some time yet.
On Bitstamp it's come exactly to the 7211 level and is trying to 'stabilise' .
Can set a sell at 7198 with a stop 30 higher and a limit at 6821 and go fishing for real - or watch it play out in real time.


Bitcoin Coinbase Chart NB. The break line level here is 7195.


Bitfinex 7200 is the key level on Bitfinex.
safe for now above here - in trouble below it.



Bitcoin Update
Good break lower still and some decent volume but only as large as the arrow to left.
Lowering stop to 7092 -
Otherwise it has stay way higher at 7220.
It has not finished the descent though by look of chart so if stopped out will look to short again from towards 7214 .
It's looking very weak now, weekend or not.
If you're patient enough it's very likely we'll see that big head and shoulders minimum downside target hit at 5910 later this weekend or early next week.
In the nearer term it should fall to 6789-6666 range.
If day trading can drive the stop even lower - just in case it double bottoms around 6990 on this push down - if so not below 7060 at lowest.
And 7102 at highest

5. Aug. 2018

Anmerkung

Bitcoin Sunday Update 10:44 Bst 05:44 Est
Bitmex

The high here since the last update is 7028, just 4 points under the nearest stop for shorts. We need to be careful here though.

This looks like a good spot for a whale attack ...blowing a bubble ring under price to try to force it above the stop line, where a lot of short stops are waiting (us too).
This price action, if successful, should start flipping those stops and take the price back up to 7209 at least and potentially to 7347 and the upper parallel at the extreme of the move before falling away again.

So we need to be careful here, quiet Sunday or not.
The short stop needs to stay where it is for now.
Can also set a buy order at 7035 with a stop below 6995 and a limit at 7200 and at 7289 at tops (7347 is probably pushing it a little too far for any limit order but may at best get touched - but probably only if a whale school is circling underneath price today).

On the downside an ambush by whales higher cannot work out unless 7030 is broken above. It's also trying to build a tiny inverse H&S with 130 minimum points of upside if the 7030 neckline can be broken above soon.

But until we see that happen Bitcoin is still vulnerable so no point in closing out shorts just yet unless and until we get the signals, as above.

Ideally for the short it will fail here and come off down to 6792 and maybe spike down to 6670 later in the session and at some point next week fall further to 6386 and then 6091 and 5921 to complete the H&S target.

But in the meantime we have to be wary of a counter rally back towards the upper parallel of this still-forming down-trend.
If we get this development later today will be looking to sell again from the upper parallel if/when touched with stops above the same line by 20 to 30 points.

5. Aug. 2018

Anmerkung

Bitcoin Updates XBTUSD

Perpetual Inverse swap




Bitcoin Tether BTCUSDT


Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update

The high here looks like it was 7038.
About 10 points above most of the other feeds .
If you trade this index you'll know that this feed tends to be a little more spiky than most and needs a stop at least 10 ponts wider than Bitmex usually.


Bitcoin Coinbase Chart
High here is 7025 - the difference between a 'sensible' stop being sensible - and being 'dumb' on Bitstamp.
It's important for new traders to see and understand these small but vital distinctions between different feeds and exchanges.

this is a good example of of that small but vital difference.
You have to use wider stops on Bitstamp and Bitfinex too usually than Coinbase and Bitmex.


Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
High here was 7035.
This feed and Bitstamp need 10 point wider stops than others. Usually.

It's breaking higher now.
Raise stop on any new longs to rough break even now at 7030.
If taken it's taken.
Needs volume now to stay good.