Bitcoin Weekly Review – September 1st – September 7th.
TLDR:
My bias remains bearish. According to my analysis, Bitcoin is in a complex WXYXZ correction. Ultimately, this correction will lead Bitcoin to lower prices of as low as 45K, possibly lower.
However, all hope is not lost for the bulls. The possibility of a bullish continuation exists under the following conditions:
1. Bitcoin must make an HH above 65K.
2. The correction period will not exceed beyond December 2024.
3. The price must stay above 49K.
High Probability Scenario for September 1st – 7th.
I expect Bitcoin to dip into the daily demand zone (54K-56K). This will end Wave A, and a bullish reaction will follow in Wave B.
Trade Idea:
Entry: 56K
SL: below 54K
Target: 62.5K.
R: R: 1:3.3
Don’t set a limit order. Follow the PA. Price can reverse slightly above 56K or further into the demand zone.
Low Probability Scenario for September 1st – 7th.
Bitcoin continues to make an HH, completing wave 1 of 5.
Trade Idea:
Entry: 66K
SL: 67.3K
TP1 58K, TP2, 55K
R: R to first TP is 1:6
Is a 100K Bitcoin Still Possible?
Bitcoin’s wave 3 top was 73.777K on March 13th, 2024. Since making the ATH, Bitcoin has been in a wave 4 correction. As far as the criteria for invalidation are concerned, a continuation in wave 5 is still possible.
A continuation in Wave 5 is possible as long as:
1. Price: The price doesn’t close a weekly candle below the 0.618 retracement at 43.5K.
2. Time: Theoretically, wave 4 can last 300% longer than wave 3 and is still considered valid. However, this is a textbook definition, and I think it’s senseless. Between 1 and 1.618, fib time is realistic. According to this criterion, Bitcoin must enter wave 5 territory between September 9th and December 30th.
You must understand that the longer Bitcoin stays in a correction, the bigger the chances of the macro headwinds catching up with Bitcoin and cutting any bullish continuation at the knees.
China is already experiencing a recession, or, at the least, an economic slowdown coupled with deflation. So is the EU and the U.S.
I don’t want to go into the details of each Zone’s economic performance, but if you are economically savvy, you already know the score.
As I see it, Bitcoin must begin wave 5 no later than October 2024; otherwise, it will be too late.
Also, for a realistic chance at 100K per Bitcoin, 49K must be the lowest price.
100K Bitcoin Roadmap:
From a macro view, we must assume that 49K was the lowest point in a WXY complex correction and that Bitcoin is already at the initial stage of wave 5.
Wave 5 Roadmap:
For a realistic chance of continuation in wave 5, we must assume that 49K was the end of a complex WXY correction in wave 4.
Also, Bitcoin must make an HH in wave 1 of 5 as early as next week!
After making an HH in wave 1, Bitcoin must retrace in wave 2, no lower than 0.786 retracement at 52.8K. Bitcoin can then push higher in wave 3 to the 1.618 extension at 81K. Retrace in wave 4 to 70K and push higher between 90K and 100K in wave 5.
For this scenario to be realistic, Bitcoin must make an HH to around 66K next week—it then needs to hold above 53K in the wave 2 retracement. Without an HH or if it falls below 53K, the chances of continuation in wave 5 will significantly diminish.
Gann Support to EW analysis:
Pulling a Gann fan from the bottom of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3 on a squared chart supports the EW analysis.
From a Gann standpoint, the current support level for Bitcoin is the 2/1 angle at 55K. If Bitcoin doesn’t close a weekly candle below 55K, it is good for continuation. Lose 55K, and it will continue lower.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily chart analysis remains almost the same as the previous weeks.
58K is the most significant support level on the daily TF.
If Bitcoin loses the 58K support without making an HH first, it will open Bitcoin to a bearish continuation. Initially, to fill the wicks on weekly and daily TFs but ultimately to 45K and possibly lower.
The primary bias remains short.
As Bitcoin continues to chop around the 200D EMA with low volatility, I am not interested in trading micro moves. If you intend to trade Bitcoin long, look for a break above the 200D EMA and a retest.
Best wishes
My bias remains bearish. According to my analysis, Bitcoin is in a complex WXYXZ correction. Ultimately, this correction will lead Bitcoin to lower prices of as low as 45K, possibly lower.
However, all hope is not lost for the bulls. The possibility of a bullish continuation exists under the following conditions:
1. Bitcoin must make an HH above 65K.
2. The correction period will not exceed beyond December 2024.
3. The price must stay above 49K.
High Probability Scenario for September 1st – 7th.
I expect Bitcoin to dip into the daily demand zone (54K-56K). This will end Wave A, and a bullish reaction will follow in Wave B.
Trade Idea:
Entry: 56K
SL: below 54K
Target: 62.5K.
R: R: 1:3.3
Don’t set a limit order. Follow the PA. Price can reverse slightly above 56K or further into the demand zone.
Low Probability Scenario for September 1st – 7th.
Bitcoin continues to make an HH, completing wave 1 of 5.
Trade Idea:
Entry: 66K
SL: 67.3K
TP1 58K, TP2, 55K
R: R to first TP is 1:6
Is a 100K Bitcoin Still Possible?
Bitcoin’s wave 3 top was 73.777K on March 13th, 2024. Since making the ATH, Bitcoin has been in a wave 4 correction. As far as the criteria for invalidation are concerned, a continuation in wave 5 is still possible.
A continuation in Wave 5 is possible as long as:
1. Price: The price doesn’t close a weekly candle below the 0.618 retracement at 43.5K.
2. Time: Theoretically, wave 4 can last 300% longer than wave 3 and is still considered valid. However, this is a textbook definition, and I think it’s senseless. Between 1 and 1.618, fib time is realistic. According to this criterion, Bitcoin must enter wave 5 territory between September 9th and December 30th.
You must understand that the longer Bitcoin stays in a correction, the bigger the chances of the macro headwinds catching up with Bitcoin and cutting any bullish continuation at the knees.
China is already experiencing a recession, or, at the least, an economic slowdown coupled with deflation. So is the EU and the U.S.
I don’t want to go into the details of each Zone’s economic performance, but if you are economically savvy, you already know the score.
As I see it, Bitcoin must begin wave 5 no later than October 2024; otherwise, it will be too late.
Also, for a realistic chance at 100K per Bitcoin, 49K must be the lowest price.
100K Bitcoin Roadmap:
From a macro view, we must assume that 49K was the lowest point in a WXY complex correction and that Bitcoin is already at the initial stage of wave 5.
Wave 5 Roadmap:
For a realistic chance of continuation in wave 5, we must assume that 49K was the end of a complex WXY correction in wave 4.
Also, Bitcoin must make an HH in wave 1 of 5 as early as next week!
After making an HH in wave 1, Bitcoin must retrace in wave 2, no lower than 0.786 retracement at 52.8K. Bitcoin can then push higher in wave 3 to the 1.618 extension at 81K. Retrace in wave 4 to 70K and push higher between 90K and 100K in wave 5.
For this scenario to be realistic, Bitcoin must make an HH to around 66K next week—it then needs to hold above 53K in the wave 2 retracement. Without an HH or if it falls below 53K, the chances of continuation in wave 5 will significantly diminish.
Gann Support to EW analysis:
Pulling a Gann fan from the bottom of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3 on a squared chart supports the EW analysis.
From a Gann standpoint, the current support level for Bitcoin is the 2/1 angle at 55K. If Bitcoin doesn’t close a weekly candle below 55K, it is good for continuation. Lose 55K, and it will continue lower.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily chart analysis remains almost the same as the previous weeks.
58K is the most significant support level on the daily TF.
If Bitcoin loses the 58K support without making an HH first, it will open Bitcoin to a bearish continuation. Initially, to fill the wicks on weekly and daily TFs but ultimately to 45K and possibly lower.
The primary bias remains short.
As Bitcoin continues to chop around the 200D EMA with low volatility, I am not interested in trading micro moves. If you intend to trade Bitcoin long, look for a break above the 200D EMA and a retest.
Best wishes
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