31st March Bitcoin - I declare the bear market is over!
Aktualisiert
Despite being bearish for the past week and targeting very low prices for some coins which made some people upset, but as a trader I don't marry my analysis and will dump it if things change.
And I am now claiming that we have probably bottomed on the crypto bear market.
There were a few happenings that made me come to this conclusion.
Fundamentals
1. There was a massive liquidation of longs at bitfinex and probably other exchanges, also means people suddenly turn bearish.
2. The heavy futures trader has had the majority of their positions liquidated from the OKEx debacle. (most likely longs).
3. The CFTC report shows that Institutional investors has started to go long on Bitcoin futures and increasing their positions since last week.
4. The article about how Bitcoin has been manipulated was distributed at an opportunate time that suggests people to sell off their holdings.
5. People on twitter started blaming others that got them into crypto and news of how people lost their live savings buying bitcoin have started to circulate, doom and gloom typically signifies a bottom.
Technicals
1. Yesterday's daily volume was the highest since this fall from 11700 started but we did not crash through $6000.
2. The sell off looks a little overextended, even if we have not find a bottom yet, there should be a good correction first.
3. Price did go below the Daily RSI 30 level and rebounded.
I will be wrong if price breaks below $6000. But the near term move is definitely up for now.
So buy any alt coins that has good potential, but remember Bitcoin is king.
And I am now claiming that we have probably bottomed on the crypto bear market.
There were a few happenings that made me come to this conclusion.
Fundamentals
1. There was a massive liquidation of longs at bitfinex and probably other exchanges, also means people suddenly turn bearish.
2. The heavy futures trader has had the majority of their positions liquidated from the OKEx debacle. (most likely longs).
3. The CFTC report shows that Institutional investors has started to go long on Bitcoin futures and increasing their positions since last week.
4. The article about how Bitcoin has been manipulated was distributed at an opportunate time that suggests people to sell off their holdings.
5. People on twitter started blaming others that got them into crypto and news of how people lost their live savings buying bitcoin have started to circulate, doom and gloom typically signifies a bottom.
Technicals
1. Yesterday's daily volume was the highest since this fall from 11700 started but we did not crash through $6000.
2. The sell off looks a little overextended, even if we have not find a bottom yet, there should be a good correction first.
3. Price did go below the Daily RSI 30 level and rebounded.
I will be wrong if price breaks below $6000. But the near term move is definitely up for now.
So buy any alt coins that has good potential, but remember Bitcoin is king.
Kommentar
Shorts at all time high at a bottom, isn't this the inverse of longs at the top?
Kommentar
Could this be finally the reversal I am looking for?
I got in at the bottom on the 3rd try as posted in the other thread and it looks good for now.
Kommentar
Current bullish view negated, I turn neutral for the short term. Waiting for confirmations before I open another position. Technically I turn slightly bearish.
Kommentar
1. The market is bearish yes.
2. You can throw in any indicator and all of them say this is bearish.
3. Even my dog looks down when looking at the daily chart (because I put it on the floor).
4. Most analysts would say we need a crash to 5k or below, and I dont deny that, I would love to see a crash too.
But I am using my feelings and intuition here that this current downmove that stopped at just under 6600 has ended. The whole downmove and the market sentiment around it feels like a 2nd wave and has ended. We will be seeing upmoves from here on and possible a 3rd wave up in Elliot wave terms. Either that or this is a C wave up which will also be sharp.
So for now I still think the bear market is over.
Kommentar
I added the accumulation indicator to have another perspective.
1. The panic selloff already happened at 6k.
2. After that people are not letting go of their holdings in Bitcoin.
3. Even as we dip to 6500, the accumulations are holding steady.
4. That means people are holding and buying the dips as we drop, no panic selling.
5. Now it looks like we are in a huge accumulation phase in the range of 6000-9000 where most of the trading happened.
6. It also helps that everywhere I read people are calling for under 5k, believing the whole cartel thing which I say was posted at the right time to make people bearish. Which also means the end of the bear market as these people will be the ones shorting expecting a move to 5k as the bull market begins.
Just some observations to support my bullish view.
Kommentar
As much as hating to admit I am wrong, but I flow with the whims of the market. The downmove is not complete, and there would be a possible test of under 6000. The current upmove to 6900 is a great place to open short positions for the possible painful drop we will be facing.
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