20K is Vital

31. Okt. 2022

Morning folks,

So, BTC has started nice with upside breakout of the range, re-tested the border. But now it can't proceed higher to 20.6K target. Although, if it is really bullish, it should to. The reason for that is the Fed - they start more actively contract the ballance sheet trying to come up with the promised values of bonds' sell of. Thus, last week finally 20 Bln in MBS have been sold. Now QT plan is completed for ~65%, but they are accelerating.

You know our bearish view on BTC. Fed is no near the pivot yet. Technical picture shows that bullish context is becoming weaker. Maybe some external drivers, such as Fed comments or NFP data this week could push it higher to complete 20.6K, but as it stands right now - I'm not fascinating with taking the long position.

We suggest that 20K lows are vital here. Downside breakout could be treated as a signals to step in for the bears.