botje11
Long

Bitcoin short term 10K than crashing 50% look at the similarity

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
At first i thought the 8500 woud have been the top inside this bear market trend. But it should have dropped towards the 6K low within a day or two. But i remember the same a while back (a follower reminded me of this fact) When a month ago i droppped to the 9200 low and when we saw a big impulse wave up i very quickly predicted we would probably reach the 12.500/12.800. But than i went sideways for several days, looking weaker and giving the appearance it could not break the 12K, when it looked like dropping below the support level to go towards the 9K again, all of a sudden we saw a 1000 point+ up move within a day. My guess is, we will probably do the same now! Yesterday i closed my remaining short around the 7900 because i had to many mixed signals andhad a feeling we would go up again. If my guess is right, we will go up from here towards the 10K maybe even. If we are lucky enough we will see a top formation when it reaches the top to be able to create a nice shot position again.
Kommentar: A bit more zoomed in
Kommentar: Idealy it drops towards the 8200, if it does, i will probably make an attempt to go long with short stop. If it doesn't i will just wait on the side line and wait it out until i think it's a good moment to build my short position
Kommentar: I went long just above 8250, stop just below 8000
Kommentar: Okie guys, you wanna know what my overall view/guess for Bitcoin is? Like i said a month ago, i think Bitcoin is game over. The only reason why it has not dropped even more than the 6K. because on one hand there are still many people who want to buy it, but i don't think it's enough anymore to push it really high again. On the other hand, i think it's mostly manipulation of the whales. The people have more to loose if they don't take action and keep supporting the Bitcoin price than just throwing hundreds of millions into the market and push the price higher again. Think of the Bitcoin billionaires , what would you do if you had their position. Ofcourse they know each other, what would you do. If you had 1.000.000.000 dollars worth in Bitcoin and you see the price crashing like it did. Would you lean back and say to yourself, ooooohhh no problem dude, in a couple of months Bitcoin will be 50.000. Or would you round up your fellow BTC billionaire friends, and agree to make a rescue operation. I think they will loose more money if the price drops and do nothing, than throwing in like 25% or whatever is needed into the market, with margin, with Theter or whatever to keep the price stable and push it higher again. When volume is low (sideways action) it's much easier for them to keep the price from falling. Ofcourse they will try to unload some of the BTC they bought to support it, preferably at higher prices of course. Like yesterday, it actually broke out upwards above the 8800 ready to take out the 9.000 and than it drops 800 points again. I think it's them who can see enough buying volume entering the market again in the 8K levels, so they can unload the Bitcoins they bought in the 6K and 7K levels. So my guess is, they will probably do the same now at these levels, don't think they will let it drop below the 7500. How far they can go up depends on the market of course, If selling volume increases even they can't stop it from falling.

This is my overal though of Bitcoin. I had my (conspiracy) theory right in november about what they were doing. I think i have it right this time to. Only time will tell of course if i am crazy or a genius :) LOL
Kommentar: These are the levels to keep an eye on
Kommentar: Should stay above those lines and green area to keep bullish momentum intact. Otherwise last resort would be a double bottom around 8200.
Kommentar: A bullish scenario we should not ignore, a big H&S. If this was any other stock or index or whatever, i would most certainly go long. But with Bitcoin it's very risky!

Kommentar: Wrong chart :)
Kommentar: This is what i am talking about, seems to be slipping away, going through support levels, making bearish flags. Just like the other circled blue moments. And than out of no where a big move up, fooling all the bears. Just like the upside yesterday. These moves are only done to fool the day traders!

Kommentar: It's not there yet, not still hanging against the neckline of that H&S from the top
Kommentar: I am getting out now while i still can and have a small profit, taking to long, maybe i will jump back in if it gets above the 8600.
Kommentar: To be honest i am surprised it did not break through the 8600. Things are really starting to get weaker now. I think i have to change my strategy
Kommentar: I have turned short now :)
Kommentar: Hanging on an important support now, if it drops below the 8150 i will probably add. This the point where it drops from here, or it will form an big support level and see a big bounce from here and forming a double bottom. Therefore i am putting my stop just above the previous high around 8300. The move should be with volume, both ways
Kommentar: Everything above that green area at 7800, means they could be pulling the same trick again. I will close half my short position if it gets close. It is starting to look very weak now. Making lower highs and lows. It still falls under sideways action, unless we break the 7800 and actually the 7500. For now, dropping below the 8200 it has set a top formation. So chances are really big now that bullish momentum is loosing again
Kommentar: https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/02/10/caught-infraud-thailand-police-seize-100000-bitcoins-darknet-marketplace/
I am wondering what the market think of this fact. They wont sell it on the market but auction it. Buyers will only buy it ofcourse with a discount i assume, otherwise why would you. Is it a 1% discount, 5%, 20% i have no clue. But if it's a serious discount, the buyers would probably dump it as soon as possible to make a big profit. This could weigh heavy on the market now. I am just thinking out load :)
Kommentar: I have closed half with almost 400 points profit, lowering risk. Maybe add again when it gets slightly higher
Kommentar: Could be seeing something like this the coming days, i have my stop just above 8K for the remaining
Kommentar: So far it has done exactly again as i suspected. The reason i had my stop just above the 8K. Sideways action!!Now we have a bigger H&S with a target around 7000. Still no guarantee it will happen! We could still see a big rally from the neckline around 8000. but chances are much bigger now we will see a drop. This also doesn't mean we will make a big crash again, could also make a higher low at 7000 and than go towards the 10K, thats all guessing for now of course. Rather look at what i see at the very moment

Kommentar: I am short now on Bitcoin, i looks to weak now. With a stop around 8600
Kommentar: Sideways action again, looks like making a drop towards the 7800, than making these moves
Kommentar: i have added at 8450
Thanks for the update!
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Any idea where we're dropping to right now? Retesting the 7850 or going lower, hmmm.
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:) thanks for keeping us updated...
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hi @botje11 what are the chances you reckon of it going up now above 9k now?
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botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66, i think 75% but i want to say more to be honoust :)
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9600 max, no 10k from my chart
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botje11 CrissCristofer
@CrissCristofer, could very well be. 10K is not a real target, when it gets above the 9K i will start to look for top formation and weakness. could be around 9500 could be 10.500 could be 11.500.
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So you're still long to 10k? haha
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botje11 JasonT79
@JasonT79, no not still, i was flat since i closed my short position at 7900. I would stay flat until maybe the 10K to build up my short position (maybe higher or lower, depends on signals i get). Or i would go long if it would drop towards the 8200. I thought it would do that yesterday before taking out the 9K, but i got another chance. Only a small position. I have moved my stop towards my entry level since i already have 200 points in my favor now. Lowering the risk of this trade to zero
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