Bitcoin Daily Update (day 274)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.

Previous analysis: “I like the risk reward of a long in that area [$3,750].”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812 | Long BTC:USD from $3,751

Patterns: 4h is starting a new downtrend
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,732 | R: $3,886
BTCUSDSHORTS: Closed above downtrend but with a bearish wick
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0996%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below and trending down
Medium term trend (9 day MA): CLose below and getting a bearish cross with 4 MA
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down, should be strong resistance on a retest
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: More selling volume than buying volume last two days
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Confirmed bearish doji
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h shows big resistance from $4,000 - $4,800
TD’ Sequential: We did get a perfected r9 (4h) in the buy zone I lined out.
Visible Range: High volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 holding as resistance
Price action: 24h: -2.75%
Bollinger Bands: Pulling back before testing the MA
Trendline: Didn’t retest the trendline and now there isn’t room for that without taking out the lows from Nov 25
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish
Parabolic SAR: $3,522
RSI: Retesting 30
Stochastic: Bullish recross
Last Day Rule: November 29th’s high ($4,414) is proving a difficult area to retest for the trigger day

Summary: Yesterday I was really liking the risk:reward on a long. Viewing $3,500 - $3,750 as a strong area of support and using the daily parabolic SAR as I stop. I wanted to see a strong bounce from there on large volume.

If that happened then I likely would have added a little to my small long. Instead we appear to be creating a new bear trend and I am feeling skittish. I moved my stop to breakeven well before my guidelines suggest.

However, there are always a few things that are more important than where the parabolic SAR is. Any guesses?

Risk management and betting with the trend.

I’m comfortable betting against the trend when the risk:reward is weighted heavily enough in my favor. However, I will also be tighter with my stop losses than I would like to be on a regular basis.