For the ones who have no experience with the real markets, who have not seen enough in their lives of how stock markets (sometimes) work, don't know that the underliying value (like the Bitcoin ) gets used as a toy to earn money with derivatives like the . Ofcourse when fundamentals/sentiment and big buying and selling have the upper hand, than it is much more difficult to control the outcome.
For now we are moving in a clear (bigger) triangle,from the 14.300 top to the 9.200 bottom. The room that's left is 10.400 on the downside and 11.400 on the upside. Normally it's best to stay untill it breaks one of the 2. For me it's almost it's like 70% sure that the first outbreak (up or down) will be a false outbreak, after that it will probably choose the other direction in which the chosen trend will than continue! This triangle has clear characteristics of a real triangle and it confirmes actual sentiment, people who the the bottom is set at 10K and the many who think it will drop to 8K or even much lower.
Smaller time frame patterns within this pattern, cannot be really used to determine which side the outbreak will be, we have seen this clearly at the 2 failed attempts on the upside at 11.700 and the day after at 11.600. Almost all short term signals were green, nonetheless it went down again as you can read in my previous updates, where i predicted it would be a second false outbreak!
My guess is, within the coming week the direction will be chosen and will determine the trend for the coming months. My view is to the downside, but i am very sceptical about the crypto market as whole, so i know i am not 100% objective. I know this of my self and therefore (like i always mention) i can change easily when i get new signals. My thought is, there is just to much uncertainty in the minds of people lately, ofcourse because of the big drops from the 20K top and the 17K top, but also from al the news and facts lately. This could have the upper hand for at least the short term (weeks/months). So a shake out to the downside is a very realistic option for now.
Stop at 11540, for a 30 point loss, risky trade, so when you get the chance, minimize the eventual loss
Different exchanges were all at the same prices lately, but the especially today the difference keeps getting bigger. Do have to say, few weeks ago when it was dropping, Bitfinex was pulling them down by being around 400/500 points lower. Now it's almost 300 points higher, so logic would say, we go up!
I had it right the past few days about not breaking out, i am trusting my instinct again, risk reward is very good, otherwise i would not do it!
So far Bitfinex is leading again, Coinbase is falling 500 points behind. I am staying at the side lines. Maybe will go long if it goes towards the 11.400 again or go short when it drops below. For now, sidelines i am completely flat now. Taking a break :) Good luck all
I am saying for a while now, Bitcoin will never see a new ATH again. Unless some real fundamental change comes in play that could give people trust and push everything up again. Inexperienced people have seen to many big drops lately, lost to much money, to just keep on buying and paying higher prices for something that has a lot of risk. Up to the big crash from the 20K, It almost didn't matter at wich point one would get in the market, because everytime it would make a new ATH.
So i dont think this market will see those fast big bull runs anymore (unless something big happens). The conviction we saw up untill a month ago is just gone! Ofcourse there are still many bulls, but even these bulls just can't be as convinced as they used to be. This break out of the 11.500, of this triangle is just really disappointing! For normal markets it's completely normal that it is testing it's former resistance levels as support now. But it's not normal for Bitcoin. That means something has changed. People are getting less blind, are buying less impulsive. So even if another attempt will be made to take out the ATH, it will take much more time than before. I dont mean months, but it's impossible it will be done in a few days or a week.
Short term, difficult to say. I am still flat, even though i really want to short it. But i always take a small brake after a few bad trades. Even though i made a massive profit the last few weeks, this is a very emotional market. Taking a break is necessary sometimes, to be able to view the markets objectively. Pure TA says it broke out short term, higher lows (most important factor) broke out the big triangle and so on. But longer term it's still in a downtrend and fundamentally it's things have changed. Just to many mixed signals! But this is very common for sideways action, to get confused. And whales usually try to do this, because they dont want traders getting long or short for the best prices. They just want them to get in at the tops and shake them out with big fast drops, but the same happens the other way around ofcourse!
Guys, should I listen to him? Saves me allot time
No, I will look it up later, please remind me to do so