BTC a view from far
Hi Guys,
let's see if my profile fits most of the traders' profile here in TV.
I have approached to BTC later in 2016, was pretty easy at that time to make money, every morning my wallet was increased by 10%....and later in 2017 was even better.....
Than something happened, Jannuary my wallet start to erode its value, every day was thousands of dollars less than day before, and so on....at that time...I have started to learn about TA, why? Because I started to urge the necessity to float in the new situation where everything goes down without a bottom....
before was 17K, than 15K than 12K....where is the bottom....a;ready 17K was looking terribile...at that moment thinking about 12K was impossibile.....but after a month we have reached 6K....well we have found the bottom ehre....finally.....
Everybody was expecting the new bull run, like in november or december......but simply the people do not care anymore about BTC....
No news on Media, no more guys that bought a Lambo with BTC, no more dream.....
So now we struggling day by day try to keep new small highs, like 10K, 9K, now 8K and soon will be 6K.....
So what's next?
Well, nobody know.....every TA here says:
We could go higher
we could go lower
we could go sideways.....and nothing wrong with it, I mean TA it's just about to keep in consideration every scenario and be ready to react accordingly.
TA can be helpful for the market with a lot of historical data, but here it's not more than a guess, and, If you are honest, 50% of the trading ideas fail.....
So, let's start from this point, TA in a so volatile marketing simply does not work.....
Fib levels: Yes works well and historically talking we can prove and confirm that crypto refers quiet well to FIB levels: this happens because all the traders refer to Fib levels to open or close positions, thanks for this the market move all togehter accordingly.
Elliot waves: this is the biggest bullshit ever....how many times we have seen ellitot waves proposed as an impulse wave up that sundelly become and ABCDE correction etc....how you can invest money using such movable scale that in one day pivot in a total different direction?
MACD has a big lag so could work but personally, I use it only on longer timeframes
RSI Yes I like it and I use it in particular for support and resistences, but is very helpful to try to get the overall market sentiment
Volume: this is very important in particular to identify traps or real bounces
But, let' back to my analysis, I just lost interest in the short time investment in cryptos, and I have already moved out 50% of my money in the Forex, on a long-term, I have tried to change my approach to TA.
I think we have spent the last 3 months to correct the entire 2017 impulse up.
7-8K land exactly in the Golden pocket of the correction (BTC most of the time correct at the Golden pocket) also, the 7-8K found the support of the up-trend line of 2017 impulse up, so we can define this a confluence zone for a real support: WE HAVE FOUND THE BOTTOM
In this scenario calling 6-5-4K it's simply stupid, and I do not saying that is not possible to get there, but if this happen we will find ourselves in a market with a very low liquidity, probably lower than 100B, where few people can move dramatically up or down the entire market with just one order, this will make the market impossible to forecast and impossible to trade.
let's see if my profile fits most of the traders' profile here in TV.
I have approached to BTC later in 2016, was pretty easy at that time to make money, every morning my wallet was increased by 10%....and later in 2017 was even better.....
Than something happened, Jannuary my wallet start to erode its value, every day was thousands of dollars less than day before, and so on....at that time...I have started to learn about TA, why? Because I started to urge the necessity to float in the new situation where everything goes down without a bottom....
before was 17K, than 15K than 12K....where is the bottom....a;ready 17K was looking terribile...at that moment thinking about 12K was impossibile.....but after a month we have reached 6K....well we have found the bottom ehre....finally.....
Everybody was expecting the new bull run, like in november or december......but simply the people do not care anymore about BTC....
No news on Media, no more guys that bought a Lambo with BTC, no more dream.....
So now we struggling day by day try to keep new small highs, like 10K, 9K, now 8K and soon will be 6K.....
So what's next?
Well, nobody know.....every TA here says:
We could go higher
we could go lower
we could go sideways.....and nothing wrong with it, I mean TA it's just about to keep in consideration every scenario and be ready to react accordingly.
TA can be helpful for the market with a lot of historical data, but here it's not more than a guess, and, If you are honest, 50% of the trading ideas fail.....
So, let's start from this point, TA in a so volatile marketing simply does not work.....
Fib levels: Yes works well and historically talking we can prove and confirm that crypto refers quiet well to FIB levels: this happens because all the traders refer to Fib levels to open or close positions, thanks for this the market move all togehter accordingly.
Elliot waves: this is the biggest bullshit ever....how many times we have seen ellitot waves proposed as an impulse wave up that sundelly become and ABCDE correction etc....how you can invest money using such movable scale that in one day pivot in a total different direction?
MACD has a big lag so could work but personally, I use it only on longer timeframes
RSI Yes I like it and I use it in particular for support and resistences, but is very helpful to try to get the overall market sentiment
Volume: this is very important in particular to identify traps or real bounces
But, let' back to my analysis, I just lost interest in the short time investment in cryptos, and I have already moved out 50% of my money in the Forex, on a long-term, I have tried to change my approach to TA.
I think we have spent the last 3 months to correct the entire 2017 impulse up.
7-8K land exactly in the Golden pocket of the correction (BTC most of the time correct at the Golden pocket) also, the 7-8K found the support of the up-trend line of 2017 impulse up, so we can define this a confluence zone for a real support: WE HAVE FOUND THE BOTTOM
In this scenario calling 6-5-4K it's simply stupid, and I do not saying that is not possible to get there, but if this happen we will find ourselves in a market with a very low liquidity, probably lower than 100B, where few people can move dramatically up or down the entire market with just one order, this will make the market impossible to forecast and impossible to trade.
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