Triangle Punctured, Retest Underway

12. Juni 2020

After faking out through the top and falling back inside the triangle we've been moving in, BTC dumped yesterday. It has spent the last few hours retesting this triangle. Note these are daily candles, so don't expect that just because it shoots up inside for a few hours that it has regained the triangle or that it has automatically failed the retest because price drops for a period of time. These are daily candles. We are either looking for a candle to close inside the triangle or for price to close again outside of it.

This will indicate a telegraph of its next move. Of note is the bearish divergence on the RSI. (There are several other indicators showing the same but I don't have a pro account.) This shows BTC's intent to drop lower.

Currently price is stuck between the triangle and the 50MA.

For me this is not a place I'd want to "buy the dip." Risk/reward is not good enough being we may be near a top. (multiple rejections, more than I've ever seen BTC have at 10K than I've seen since 2017.

16. Juni 2020

Anmerkung

And we see it playing out slowly, much slower in fact than I would like. Unfortunately that is the case since we are talking about daily candles for a pattern BTC traded in for 45 days. Now it has been attempting a retest for five days now. Bulls have continued to fight with fomo, attempting to push price back inside the triangle. So far it has failed to produce a candle close inside. It's mostly just dragging its head against the underside. I would still be wary of taking a substantial position as we are in a very dangerously low liquidity market right now. Meaning? It won't take as much to dump it but it doesn't take as much to pump it either. 10M USDT was moved to Binance last night and the price shot up almost $200 within the hour of the transfer.

However, since the pattern has broken and has so far failed its retest for 5 days straight, it definitely favors the bears.