Dangerously! Bear's Formation

30. Juni 2018

In the previous idea of the Blue Channel Part2 I predicted the movement of the price to 5500. However, the sellers could not squeeze the price below 5750. Everytime after reaching this zone there are agressive rebounds up and the magnifying shorts are reduced. The last rebound occured 2 hours before the closing day candle and took away from the sellers of the posiion(see the chart margin shorts). Having broken through the blue channel of the previous idea the foot worked and the market flew to 6500. Hwever, it was stopped by sellers. At the moment, it's flying again. A bear formation was formed that often works down. Therefore, for safe trading it is better to wait foe the exit from this formation. For extreme traders I would try a short with a short stop after 6500.
Targets:
1) 5500-5700$
2) 4700-4900$

2. Juli 2018

Anmerkung

While the market continues consolidation, I decided to compare the bitcoin chart with longs and shorts chart. The numbers indicate the candles that correspond to the hours.
1. Comparison of the bitcoin chart and shorts:

in figures 1 to 4 it can be seen that with the price rise and the breakdown of the trendline - the shorts were closed, but the price was constantly turned back (it seems that someone took off shorts by limit orders).starting from the figure 5, a false breakdown shows a set of shorts.
2. Comparison of bitcoin and long charts.

At 1 and 2, when was the pamp, the longs behaved ambiguously. On the first candle it is clear that at first all took the longs and then someone began to close them (at the expense of those who took). On 2 it is seen that with the price growth longs begin to close. Then more interesting. At each breakdown of the trend line (3, 4, 5, 6, 7) - longs are growing. The impression is that people are forced to buy in local highs.
I continue to wait for the fall.

2. Juli 2018

Anmerkung

beat the trend line. marginal shorts are again massively closed. I wait for the closing of a 3 hour candle

2. Juli 2018

Anmerkung

on a 3-hour timeframe a clear breakdown of the trend line. now consolidation will begin in the price zone 6600-6800. if the price passes this zone - it is a local turn and this idea has not worked.
To continue the fall, it is necessary that the daylight is closed in the area of 6400.

3. Juli 2018

Anmerkung

3. Juli 2018

Anmerkung

consolidation continues and can last for another day, reaching the price of 6750. After that there will be a critical moment that will clarify where we will move. The current formation is mostly working down.

3. Juli 2018

Anmerkung

then the price move up to 6700-6750 is possible. From there I expect a fall.