2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
comment: Closed my swing short for big profits, I hope you made some. Next I expect the triangle to play out and probably break to the downside. The breakout-retest at 70137 was as perfect as it gets. Bitcoin’s fate also lies with the CPI and Jpow releases tomorrow. If markets rally, so will btc. If we sell-off, btc permabulls will be delighted to be able to add to their positions at much lower prices soon.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: small range 66600 - 72000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls printed the first good looking 1h bars since Friday, today at 6.pm. CET. They are holding on for dear life here at 67000 because below is hell for them. I can see the triangle playing out and the market moving some sideways here. If bulls are strong again, they will get back above 69000 but I highly doubt that.
Invalidation is below 66000.
bear case: Bears are now below all bigger 20ema and got a second leg down inside this trading range. A third leg would bring us right to the bull trend line on the daily chart around 65000. Bears are in full control here and unless all other markets rally hard tomorrow, Bitcoin is done imo. Decent chance that we won’t see 70000 for a long long time if catalyst’s tomorrow are bearish.
Invalidation is above 70000.
short term: Neutral here inside the triangle with slightly higher odds for the bulls to trade back to around 68800 before down again.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None. Short from 70443, sl 71950 - closed for 3300 points.
trade of the day: Small pull-back bear trend from Tuesdays Globex session. Bar 63 was the biggest bear bar and that late in a trend it’s a clear signal to exit your short position because the chance of this being the climactic end of the trend is high.
bitcoin
comment: Closed my swing short for big profits, I hope you made some. Next I expect the triangle to play out and probably break to the downside. The breakout-retest at 70137 was as perfect as it gets. Bitcoin’s fate also lies with the CPI and Jpow releases tomorrow. If markets rally, so will btc. If we sell-off, btc permabulls will be delighted to be able to add to their positions at much lower prices soon.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: small range 66600 - 72000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls printed the first good looking 1h bars since Friday, today at 6.pm. CET. They are holding on for dear life here at 67000 because below is hell for them. I can see the triangle playing out and the market moving some sideways here. If bulls are strong again, they will get back above 69000 but I highly doubt that.
Invalidation is below 66000.
bear case: Bears are now below all bigger 20ema and got a second leg down inside this trading range. A third leg would bring us right to the bull trend line on the daily chart around 65000. Bears are in full control here and unless all other markets rally hard tomorrow, Bitcoin is done imo. Decent chance that we won’t see 70000 for a long long time if catalyst’s tomorrow are bearish.
Invalidation is above 70000.
short term: Neutral here inside the triangle with slightly higher odds for the bulls to trade back to around 68800 before down again.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None. Short from 70443, sl 71950 - closed for 3300 points.
trade of the day: Small pull-back bear trend from Tuesdays Globex session. Bar 63 was the biggest bear bar and that late in a trend it’s a clear signal to exit your short position because the chance of this being the climactic end of the trend is high.
