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Repeating Bitcoin Fractal?

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C.f. also Eric Krown Crypto’s latest analysis in the video entitled Bitcoin & Crypto Are About To FLIP. Price Expectations In Q1 & 55K. Watch the entire video and especially the section Macro Fractal Low from the 34 minute mark.

I’m not affiliated nor promoting anyone. My analysis herein derives from the aforementioned analysis.

In summary this published idea posits a bounce then a flash crash spike low with a (inter-)daily closing above 37.5k. The intra-daily wick low could be between $35 and 37k.

Disclaimer: All information I post to this site are merely ideas and not investment advice. Do not hold me responsible for your investment and trading decisions.

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Alternative scenario is bottom is already behind us. One reason to favor this scenario is because the apex of the posited ascending triangle is much sooner in Q3. Given I think Bitcoin might crash significantly after the posited parabolic top incoming, it would need to crash back down through the said apex if it was going to correct lower than 65k. However as noted on my prior idea Bitcoin Topology (linked below), any correction could be shallow or deep. So the shallow scenario (at least for Rothchild’s bona fide legacy Bitcoin if the soi-dissant “official” impostor Bitcoin Core is destroyed as posited) would likely be supported at 65k.

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Aha. This supports both the wick down thesis and the aforementioned bifurcation of Bitcoin thesis.

Note I will be hopefully writing a detailed whitepaper and/or blog on the technological, game theory and tokenomics rationale of the posited bifurcation thesis, which aims to fleece 13+ million “BTC” held by people who think they hodl BTC but actually hodl a deceptive impostor sh8tcoin.

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Based on the following I think there could be a bounce later today (Friday) or early Saturday. But looks like BTC is going to backtest 0.786 Fib retracement at 35.3k perhaps over the weekend or continuing into next week. Or perhaps some bullish divergence will develop on the daily at some point then perhaps a rally into next week, then the final capitulation to 35.3k in first week of Feb. Note we could even have a weekly close 32k and remain in a bull market.

The Bitcoin Dominance has not spiked up yet. Altcoins need to be REKT in a final capitulation where everyone incorrectly thinks a bear market has begun. Thus do not rule out a retest of 30k intraweekly.

Monthly: hidden bullish RSI divergence if price remains above 29.3k, and especially 35k on closing basis.

Weekly: hidden bullish RSI divergence if price remains above 29.3k, and especially 31.8k on closing basis.

Daily: bearish trend, no bullish divergence, unlike to close above 40.6k within 4.5 hours to avert first lower close since Sept correction. Losing the 40k level means we must now look at Weekly and Monthly for trend, which still have potential bullish divergences in play (i.e. not yet a confirmed bear market).

4Hourly: Tiny bullish RSI divergence may be forming, to possibly be confirmed within next 30 minutes. MACD bullish cross is dubious and downtrend may resume after any bounce.

2Hourly: Decent bullish RSI divergence confirmed and to be reconfirmed within 30 minutes. MACD bullish cross has a higher viability although not extremely high probability although perhaps likely. A hidden bearish RSI divergence is currently in play to be vacated if bullish RSI divergence is confirmed.

1Hourly: Bullish. RSI divergence confirmed and MACD bullish cross already in play. A hidden bearish RSI divergence is currently in play to be vacated if bullish RSI divergence is confirmed.

30Minutes: Bullish. A hidden bearish RSI divergence is currently in play to be vacated if yet another bullish RSI divergence is confirmed.

15Minutes: BEARISH.

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On every significant BTC rally, BTC.D rallies until BTC appreciation slows down and the profits are rotated into altcoins. Do you all remember how much you will complaining hodling altcoin bags in December 2020?

On the May-June 2021 correction, BTC.D rallied prematurely because there was a lot of bullishness about BTC reversing to be a new ATH. Less prematurely in Sep 2021 ostensibly because BTC was still near the ATH thus more bullishness about altcoins than BTC. But once BTC rallied steeply then BTC.D caught up the level of bounce from July.

Currently there has been irrational bullishness about altcoins presumably because January is often altcoin season (perhaps one reason is retail has tax refunds to spend) preventing any premature rally in BTC.D. But if BTC threatens to enter a bear market then altcoins may selloff and/or if BTC rallies steeply coming about a capitulation low, either of which will cause BTC.D to rally presumably at least back up to 47% but historically major inflection points indicate a rally to 57% may be plausible.

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Potentially declining channel reversal in play. Note my blue arrows H&S prediction was precisely achieved on this crash. Remember I said I went short at 43.2k and would repurchase at 38k.

If the is a bullish breakout from this posited declining channel which first requires an hourly close above the bottom of the posited channel, the upside would be at minimum the top of the channel 39.3k. A possible reversal to the prior 0.618 Fib retracement level 40.6k and at most a retest of the H&S neckline 41.5k.

If we get this bounce, then after it I expect a crash to at least 35.3k, if not retesting 30k.

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UPDATE: this most recent fractal thesis still seems to be play, but the monthly interpretation is very precarious if January doesn’t close above 43.4k. Invalidation of this thesis wouldn’t validate a bear market unless January closes below 34.9k. But invalidation of the triangle pattern on the monthly would increase the odds of the pattern failing, perhaps with a bearish breakout or not meeting the projected target.

The currently interpretation indicates an intraweekly (perhaps intradaily as well) wick low to at least 35.3k, if not 31.4k. Ideally this week should close at midnight Sunday back above the 0.618 Fib retracement 40.6k.

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Obviously the posited channel broke to the downside, so next target is 35.3k. If don’t bounce from there then 31.4k is possible.

38k was the bottom of the first minor correction on the way up from 29.3k in July. With 38k broken, then anywhere between 30k and 35.3k could be the bottom.

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I made this chart weeks ago. Note the purple rectangle. That’s a precedent for M pattern that turns into a W pattern bottom with a parabolic, bullish breakout. So if BTC comes down to 30k, that would be a potential W pattern in the making and would scare the f*ck out of the weak hands. We need for the altcoins to be rekt and for BTC.D to start to move up before the final capitulation bottom.

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There are no bullish divergences for BTC above 1 hourly timeframe.

Bounced off the 0.786 Fib retracement ~35.4k.

For a bullish divergence to form on longer time frames probably requires a lower-low after a short bounce.

Looks like BTC is going for massive blood in the streets on Saturday.

The last line of defense is between $31 – 32k. If that is breached then 29.3k is the last hopium. The week must close above ~31.8k else the weekly bull market has been lost. Then only remaining hopium after such a breach, would be for January to close above 34.9k.

I have buy orders around 32k.

BTC.D is starting to breakout from a W bottom, projecting to 42.85%. So the next move down is likely to crash altcoins slightly worse than BTC. BTC.D is likely to continue moving up as it rallies bullish after final bottom. Might rise to 48 – 57% before altcoins start to dominate again.

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ADA may drop between $0.93 – $1.01. Given that BTC should drop slightly less as a percentage, thus corroborates my expectation for a bottom between $31 – 32k, presuming that 35.5k wasn’t the bottom. Note if ADA drops significantly out of this wedge (not just a wick down) it could get very, very bloody — which would also mean BTC is heading below (which I do not anticipate). So far ADA has a very slight bullish RSI divergence on the weekly (but on in the very short time frame which may be inapplicable) and also hidden bullish RSI divergence (on the long time frame). BTC only has the long time frame hidden bullish divergence on the weekly.

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ADA has bullish RSI divergence on the daily also, which a clear potential bottom just hit, although the bullish divergence would be better confirmed on this latest thrust down is ADA retests $1.03 or below. On 4 hourly ADA has no bullish divergence yet, thus supporting the idea it needs to head lower before a bottom. Only additional bullish divergences are on the hourly and lower time frames.

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ETH/BTC has fallen out of a descending triangle with a projection to ~0.068. ETH/USD exhibits horizontal support $2150 – $2350. ETH/USD is also on the precipice of a wedge. If it falls down out of the wedge, look out below as bottom of the wedge is $1400 – 1800.

It is plausible that these altcoins drop out of their bullish wedges and scare the f*ck out of all their FOMO fan boys and girls.

I suggest caution.

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Reminder there’s a CME gap to back fill at 33k, so I am going to move my buy orders up to that price:

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Exactly as predicted. As BTC.D approaches 42.5 – 42.75% (and BTC approaches 33k), BTC.D will likely have a hidden bearish divergence. It is about time to start accumulating some altcoins, but note we might need to sell them for BTC on a bounce if BTC.D develops another bullish divergence later. As I said, BTC.D could ultimately hit 48 – 57% on a fast moving rally for BTC.

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The weekly long-term hidden bullish RSI divergence is now ostensibly gone on ADA as it has formed a lower low, but we want to see a more convincing lower low, e.g. $0.90 or below to declare this to be bearish. Also short time frame bullish RSI divergence is still in play, which seems to support the idea of a significant bounce for altcoins when BTC makes its posited bottom at 33k. I just sold the altcoins I bought on the spike low, expect another thrust back down as BTC has not yet back filled the CME gap at 33k. Altcoins look likely to have set their bottom already or nearly so. The next thrust down should not be much lower for altcoins than the prior wick low, unless I am wrong about BTC bottoming at 33k.

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Very strong bullish RSI divergence for ADA on the daily chart. This is confirming a bottom is already formed or will be on the next thrust down.

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anonymous, {1/22/22 7:53 AM}
I don't trade actively so I don't follow or even have the mental capacity to follow detailed TA and all the intricate scenarios too closely. But I recall the big picture was since a few months ago already that BTC would bottom this week - and then 150k+ in March/April. Isn't this what we are seeing so far, all going according to plan?

Shelby Moore, {1/22/22 11:32 AM}
{In reply to anonymous}
I believe that theory is still the most likely outcome. Note the one outlier is that the Fib extensions retracement is much deeper this time compared to 2013 and 2017 but I do not think that is an overriding concern.

There’s a non-zero probability that crypto is in a bear market but after all the research I have done, including watching Game of Trades’ excellent Youtube videos (which I highly recommend everyone go watch all of his channel’s past month of videos so you can be up to speed on my understanding) then I highly doubt it. The markets are illogically moving to risk off investments because the interest rates are rising. But interest rates have been leading Bitcoin up and down, so that forebodes a massive rally for Bitcoin. There is irrational fear that high interest rates will immediately drain liquidity crashing the markets, but so much liquidity has moved to risk off that it will come stampeding back in when the sentiment u-turns as it probably soon will. Ditto the hashrate has fully recovered from the summer China ban and hashrate leads the BTC price. Also end of year tax and accounting selling has terminated. And risk on markets such as Bitcoin and stocks did not peak in 2017 even as the Fed was tapering and then raising Fed funds rate. In every past occurrence the risk on markets did not peak until after a few months of the Fed raising the Fed funds rate. So it appears we have the stock markets back testing (i.e. correcting back to) the top of the wedge/channels they had broken up out of before heading into another parabolic move up until the Fed actually chokes the economy with Fed funds hikes which won’t even begin until March at the earliest. The stock markets have ~6% more to drop to back test as posited. Whereas, looks like crypto is going for the entire crash this weekend. Bitcoin lately tends to front run and overreact to the stock market getting out of ahead of it. Perhaps after the final low this weekend, there could possibly be another attempt at a lower low next week or week after that, but might end up being a high low. Look I can not rule out a test of 30k, it would happen. I plan to buy at ~33k and hodl (hold on for dear life), BECAUSE I SEE BULLISH DIVERGENCE ALREADY ON THE ALTCOINS. Remember it was the lack of a spike up on BTC.D that was making me say that altcoins would crash back when ADA was still $1.60. I made a comment about that on Youtube at that time and some ADA fan boys got upset, lol.

Note Russia is now contemplating banning Bitcoin trading and mining but I don’t think that will be as significant as China bans. And the warning should be heeded and those who could be affected should be preparing counter measures. The China mining ban hopefully made players aware they need to hedge their jurisdictional risk.

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Note the posited 33k CME gap fill obviously can’t occur until CME trading opens after 6pm CST on Sunday. That doesn’t preclude a test of 33k before Sunday evening Central Standard Time.

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> “The weekly long-term hidden bullish RSI divergence is now ostensibly gone on ADA as it has formed a lower low, but we want to see a more convincing lower low, e.g. $0.90 or below to declare this to be bearish.”

Actually looking back to the ‘2’ this is still a hidden bullish RSI divergence on the weekly (c.f. prior ADA chart not the one below) with no danger at all of becoming bearish unless you think ADA is going to crash below $0.10. And the monthly below is still in bullish trend. However this perspective does not rule out a wick below $0.80 for ADA, although that seems less likely than the wick down in 2020 which as the cerveza sickness scamdemic black swan event.

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Here’s the weekly again relabeled with what I think the correct Elliiot Wave structure must be. Wave 5 still incoming.

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On the daily the RSI for ADA could come all way down to just above the December lows and still have a bullish RSI divergence. Yet ~$0.87 is the lowest I contemplate as not a too low of a probability, although sub-$0.80 has a non-zero probability. Note It is also possible that ADA does not make a lower low.

Btw, the bearish RSI divergence that lead to that crash from $1.60 is the RSI was higher than the peak in November but the price was not. RSI is related to momentum of price so when the momentum is ahead or behind the actual price movement, we see divergences.

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That had turned into a bearish rising channel and then hit the predicted 33k exactly, created the bullish RSI divergence I predicted (with lower low on price and higher low on RSI) then major bounce. But there are hidden bearish RSI divergences forming on this bounce. Might have one more move up to ~38.3k before another retest of lows. Nasdaq also bounced as expected but after gapping down at the open. Nasdaq still have more to fall before bottoming, so the final low may not have been achieved for BTC, although retests might not form a lower low. Also as predicted the altcoins appeared to have bottomed before yesterday, but they are exhibiting less upside as BTC.D continues to surge.

I DO NOT THINK 30k will be breached to the downside. On the next retest of 35k or so, I advise loading up your bags. I went leveraged long at 33k and have been selling from up.

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Starting from the September 2020 low, the golden pocket perfectly predicting the May-July bottom:

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Applying it to the current correction from the higher ATH, the bottom is predicted to be between $30.6 – 32.5k:

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Based on the relative decline of BTC and Nasdaq, and given my T/A that indicates the Nasdaq has to decline -4% from its recent crash low, I compute that BTC will FINAL bottom exactly 30.6k. Remember my prediction for 33k CME gap fill for opening of the week was precisely fulfilled.

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There’s an interesting distinction on the time frames of RSI divergences comparing altcoins (e.g. ADA) and BTC.

ADA has no bullish RSI divergences below the daily (i.e. yet does on the daily). And the hidden bullish divergence on the weekly is not in danger of being voided if ADA were to crash significantly lower. Whereas, BTC has bullish divergences on all time frames from 4 hourly and shorter, but none on the daily. And the weekly hidden bullish RSI divergence is contingent on BTC not wicking below 29.3k and weekly close not below 31.8k.

This is corroborated by BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance of total crypto market cap) has been rising, as altcoins are not as bullish short-term, yet they don’t require a lower-low to turn bullish on the daily. Whereas BTC requires a lower-low (with a higher RSI) to form a bullish RSI divergence on the daily. Yet BTC also has a very constrained limit on how much further it can decline and still be in a (hidden bullish RSI) bull market on the weekly. Also probably need a monthly close above 35k to remain hidden bullish on the monthly, although one could argue the Sep 2020 low provides for monthly hidden bullish RSI divergence as it does also for ADA.

Thus I conclude two possible scenarios:

1. BTC will dominate on bounces (and the initial rise out of a final bottom) and form a lower low above 29.3k but altcoins will dominate on declines not forming a lower low (which was my prediction for the 33k CME gap backfill which ended up being correct).

2. BTC will dominate on bounces and declines beyond daily time frame with 29.3k to be breached to the downside in February and altcoins to make egregiously lower lows.

Obviously I think #1 is much, much more likely. Thus I think we should be buying only BTC on the incoming final low and prepare to sell for altcoins after the initial surge out of the final bottom.

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Switch your Fib extensions to log-scaled, then your chart will look more proportional.

Like this:

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I think BTC will rise to between $39.5 – 40.8k before declining again to retest (probably lower) lows.

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So Bitcoin fell out of the posited, rising channel. Looks like a potential M top, projecting down to 33k or slightly below. Yet M patterns can morph into bullish W patterns, if in this case the decline is only to 35.3k before heading back up. So it could be headed down to between $32.5 – 35.3k before potentially still rallying on Monday to close the month above the critical 40.7k level to prevent the bearish monthly cross on the MACD.

The week still closed with a higher weekly low compared to summer lows. Weekly closed Sunday evening 0 UTC, monthly will close Monday midnight (i.e. 0 UTC Tuesday). Strange setup could justify a gap down on the weekend before a Monday resurge.

OTOH, even a monthly close above 34.5k is sufficient to hold a monthly higher low trend compared to the summer.

Bitcoin is really flirting with going into a cryptowinter bear market, but we have many other indicators that should not be the case.

So these extreme lows are buying opportunities.

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Bear in mind that for Bitcoin the only bullish RSI divergence from the 33k low was a on the 4 hourly not the daily. Yet the 4 hourly is threatening to turn down and the momentum to upside on MACD is lost. So we need a significant move down to regain momentum to attempt more upside.

The problem is that the bottom of the posited, rising channel fell out is not above 40.7k by midnight on Monday (UTC). So it appears to be unlikely 40.7k can be retaken before the close of January unless the posited, rising channel is not the pattern in play, e.g. if that is really a not yet fully formed W pattern.

Note if that turns out to be a W pattern and rises to 40.7k, that will be the first bullish push back above that top of that form declining, narrowing wedge from November. I think Bitcoin could still come back down to test after that one last time, but not guaranteed.

Remember I posited that the market sentiment may flip bullish with a very low year-over-year inflation report on Feb 10. I am expecting a few more hawkish statements out of Fed board members later this week or early next, to perhaps stimulate one final selloff that I am still expecting on the Nasdaq chart.

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imgur.com/a/Pp51eBo

Regular = RSI momentum weaker than price trend, thus likely price reversal.

Hidden = Price trend weaker than RSI momentum, thus likely price continuation.

Exaggerated = Regular

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Quite a complex price pattern since the 33k low. Looks like we need a price move above 40k, perhaps $40.8 – 41.5k to obtain the RSI bearish divergence relative to Jan 20.

Price may decline first to ~37.9k to test the bottom of rising narrowing wedge.

It’s possible to fall out of the said wedge and possibly even form a bullish W pattern by bottoming ~35.5k, but that scenario seems unlikely. Instead I favor the top above 40k, then coming back down to retest lows one more time.

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As previously predicted the bullish W pattern on the Nasdaq still has more run to run to the upside, before a presumed final price decline to retest lows and perhaps lower lows.

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Four hourly context. RSI bullish divergence from 3rd week of January is fading. Preparing to make a bearish RSI divergence on a move up in price above 40k. MACD looks like it is ready to rollover bearish.

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Daily. No bullish RSI divergence yet. Probably need a lower-low price and higher low RSI.

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Weekly. MACD threatening to start curling up. No weekly close below summer. Hidden bullish RSI divergence.

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Monthly. Although the MACD has bearish crossed, still have a higher monthly close than summer. Hidden bullish RSI divergence.

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There was also a weekly bearish cross in 2013 between the double-peak scenario which is posited to be repeating. It’s not valid to compare the MACD on same time frames for 2013 and 2021 because distribution (since first peak April 2021) has been of much longer duration than in 2013. There was a bounce in 2013 but not to a higher high as in 2021.

Previously I placed too much emphasis on the 1.414 Fibonacci extension level. Appears that for the repeating cyan color Fib extension that 1.272 and 1.618 are the key levels. So let’s expect another retest of ~32k if this recent crash was not the bottom (which it might have been).

Thus might get a retest of 1.618 (~61k) after get above it. But after get above 1.786 (~) then it should be rockets.

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Based on the proportional rally off the crash low, if the Nasdaq only hits the W pattern projection then Bitcoin should top out $40 – 41k. But if Nasdaq rallies back to the level it fell out of the ascending wedge or back to the bottom of the wedge, Bitcoin could top out $42 – 44k.

Nasdaq already has hidden bullish RSI divergence on longer time frames down to the 4 hourly. It had a regular bullish RSI divergence on the 2 hourly unlike Bitcoin which had it on the four hourly. Bitcoin does not have any daily bullish divergence yet. Nasdaq is threatening to form hidden bearish RSI divergence from daily down, or surely from 4 hourly. But weekly is solid hidden bullish RSI divergence same as for Bitcoin.

Thus neither Nasdaq nor Bitcoin necessarily must make a lower low. Actually I guess there is also a hidden bullish RSI divergence on the Bitcoin daily compared to September also, which I missed in my earlier comments.

Also I just noticed that there’s already a slight hidden bearish RSI divergence on both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin daily. And Bitcoin is struggling to get above the 0.786 Fib level. So it is possible for Bitcoin for roll over from this level.

Bitcoin has been weak since Jan 26, and hasn’t acknowledged Nasdaq’s rally.

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Bitcoin Dominance preparing to skyrocket. This is much more powerful than the rally it made in Q4 2017 because if Feb close green then the monthly MACD is preparing to bullish cross!

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A more realistic price target for ADA:

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Okay that H&S pattern was fulfilled perfectly on the downside as expected. Now up we go to 40.8k:

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Nasdaq hit my first target but on a gap up opening so it corrected down to back fill the gap.

Doesn’t look like the bull trap is finished yet. I expect more upside tomorrow.

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archive.fo/https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabets-surge-drives-u-s-stock-futures-higher-11643799093

Nasdaq Composite poised for gains after Google results, but ADP private payrolls fall

U.S. stock index futures were pointing to gains for the benchmark indexes on opening Wednesday, and an advance for the technology-sector, after banner results from Google parent Alphabet and microchip maker Advanced Micro Devices.

Wall Street also was parsing a report from Automatic Data Processing, which showed that U.S. economy shed 301,000 private sector jobs in January as it wrestled with the spread of the omicron variant of coronavirus.

nytimes.com/2022/01/27/technology/apple-earnings.html

Apple’s profit jumps to $34.6 billion in holiday quarter despite supply issues.

The company’s revenue and profit beat Wall Street expectations, easing concerns that supply chain problems and the coronavirus were a drag on sales.

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One scenario is a bottom for the eventual bullish W pattern forming at this level. We have bullish RSI divergence on the 30m and lower but not higher timeframes. The bearish M pattern would project down to 33.9k though.

Or comes down to 35.5k to form a deeper bullish W pattern. The bearish M pattern would project down to 31.7k though.

I am leaning towards a small bounce here, then back down to at least the bottom of the ascending wedge it fell out of.

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When the 2YR Treasuries hit 2%, we are going to see massive volatility later this year as we did in 2019 and 2020.

C.f. Game of Trades’ video “Why The Bond Market is About to Trigger a Collapse of the Financial System”

Looks like a risk-back-on peak coming over the next 2 to 3 months. Then a flash crash like 2019, then the Fed moderating a bit as they did in 2019 allowing for that wave 5 peak I expect in early 2023, then we will have another mother-of-all crashes like in 2020.

Fed is losing control of interest rates.

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C.f. Game of Trades’ video “Why Investors are WRONG about S&P500 Performance this Decade…”

This indicator is predicting -10% annualized average returns on the S&P500 for the next 10 years!

Looks like gold and Bitcoin are going to be going up while the stock market crashes later this decade.

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Damn I had annotated this chart 4 hours ago and I was expecting a pullback at the stock market open and was contemplating buying it, because it looked like BTC was going to shoot up through the intersection of the major purple overhead resistance line and the upward channel BTC has been in since Jan 27. MMCrypto mentioned this major resistance line yesterday. But I did not post it because I wanted to finish my technological exposition before posting this and then I fell asleep. This looks like it is headed quickly to 40.8k at least. I did buy at 38.5k.

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Also I had noted Nasdaq had a gap down on open yesterday which would require it be filled to the upside. Remember I had written that today’s labor report would determine if going up or down. And the labor report today was shockingly strong. Also we have an inflation report on Feb 10, that could either come in much lower sending markets breaking out to the upside or not. Or a pullback first before Feb 10? Note BTC has a hidden bearish RSI divergence on daily and 4 hourly unless it can blast up above and 43.3k respectively. My projection has it topping out at 41.5k to , although 40.8k is also a key level.

I’m expecting this to backtest 38.4k to , before heading higher. So you should get a chance to get on this. Note we have a weekend coming so I don’t know if it will be a quick move up to $40.8+k before meandering or what. But I doubt lower than 38.2k before hitting the levels above 40k.

When Bitcoin breaks out to the upside for good, it will go up like a rocket.

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UPDATE: price is threatening to break above 40k without any significant pullback. Note some pundits are interpreting the labor report as hawkish because it gives Fed support to raise interest rates, with 5 rate increases being tossed as a possibility. So this could turn bearish after this pump until the Feb 10 inflation report, which if it comes in low could spur a bullish breakout. So far Nasdaq has not confirmed this bullishness this morning and the gap to upside remains unfilled.

On the weekly we have the key Fibonacci retracement levels of 40.7k and the golden pocket $42.7 – 43.7k, as well as the dashed overhead purple line resistance $41.5 – 42.7k on a wick.

Weekly is starting to look quite bullish and the MACD is threatening to curl up. I’m not expecting this to crash next week back to 31k. At most I am expecting a back test $35.3 – 37k. There’s also the prior monthly close and February open which coincides with a another key Fibonacci level 38.6k.

If two weeks of decline to then might be possible or if this week ends on Sunday evening as a red candle.

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BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) is not yet confirming this move up, so I would caution that this is likely a bull trap to $40.7 – 42.7k before back testing one more time perhaps $35.3 – 38.6k (per the levels in my prior posts).

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Okay Nasdaq has double-bottomed at the perfect back test of the W neckline. And thus likely headed up and maybe even to fill the gap. It might confirm Bitcoin’s bullish move but it may not fill the gap and just back up to the overhead resistance. I could envision it dropping back down to the low 14000s range next week before blasting off like a rocket on Feb 10 to fill that gap and a breakout to the upside. Although that W neckline may be strong support. It is probably time to start accumulating for hodling if you have not done so already.

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Hit the 40.8k level and Nasdaq already hit the first targets. So I am leaning towards a correction over the weekend before heading up to higher targets.

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EDIT: based on Fibonacci levels, horizontal support and W pattern extension, I’m expecting a pullback to between $39.2 – 40k, followed by a continuation up to $42.2 – 42.7k, with a possible wick to 43.7k. Note it’s possible that 41.5k would be the top but less likely.

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This first daily ₿ chart is a mess of Fibonacci levels which will be difficult for readers to interpret. Essentially using July as the model, ostensibly ₿ is not ever going significantly below 40k again (although I will present a scenario where the lowest retracement would be 36.8k but I don’t think that’s likely anymore based on the new analysis), and is on the verge of a massive breakout to the upside. Although ₿ already has a hidden bearish RSI divergence on daily and lower time frames, it did in July at the verge of the breakout and there wasn’t a major pullback until between 0.382 and 0.5, which are currently 43.6k and 47.6k respectively. In July after hitting 0.382 there was an intradaily (!) retracement to the golden pocket which would be currently be slightly under 40k. After that was a lurch above 0.382 to perhaps currently $45 – 46k with a multiple days retracement to the golden pocket which would currently be ~41k.

In summary, ₿ appears poised to breakout then back test the purple trend lines it will breakout from.

After there was in August a grinding higher to 1.618 which currently would be roughly ~$54.8 – 57.3k.

However here’s no overhead downtrending lines of resistance once ₿ exceeds ~42.5k. And the presumption is that ₿ is on the verge of SpaceX verticality akin to the final move in 2013. So ₿ may not slow down as it much as it did in August.

There’s some significant horizontal resistance at ~45k. Getting through the horizontal resistance from ~$46 – 51k and ~$53 – 60k could slow ₿ down or not.

₿ has already risen above 0.236, which was the breakout level in July, so ₿ appears to be much more bullish than July. The volatility is likely to be quite unnerving as ₿ rockets.

Note on this chart that ₿ perfectly about off the lowest (non-dashed) purple downtrending line on Feb 3 before launching this rocket. Then it broke up out of that descending narrowing wedge it had been stuck inside since November. There are alternative interpretations of said wedge as annotated on my chart which appear to be providing some overhead resistance. So the question is ₿ about to breakout of all of them or to correct back down first? There is so much fear in the market still with funding rates on Bybit still negative. Thus I am assuming ₿ is going to continue to shock and rocket, but I will follow-up with the other scenario.

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There’s no hidden bearish RSI divergence on the weekly. There was at the breakout in July, so ₿ is more bullish than July on the weekly.

The weekly MACD will be turning back up same as for April 2020 and July 2021. Additionally the 0.5 and 0.786 levels were the key resistance in April/May 2020, which are currently 47.6k and 58.8k.

Also note February green candle perfectly bounce off the lowest (non-dashed) purple downtrend line, same as noted for the daily. This confluence strongly indicates that the bottom was 33k.

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My purple lines and Fibonacci levels seems to be controlling the price action. Will ₿ break upwards or downwards? My guess is down initially then rocket back up. That is a descending triangle which is normally a bearish pattern.

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Potentially another H&S pattern developing with a fractal akin to Feb 1–2. The top may be the ideal golden pocket Fibonacci retracement. But this instance if it doesn’t exceed the high of Jan 20 (and Jan 13?) there’d be a hidden bearish RSI divergence. Also likely to be a bearish RSI divergence relative to Feb 4 high. Thus the downside projection to $38.9 – 39.3k.

Not really clear what the Nasdaq will do on opening monday but FUD about Feb 4 Labor report leading to 5 rate hikes with Feb 10 inflation report due could give markets a pullback:

Back test of major purple downtrend would make sense, plus daily has a huge hidden bearish RSI divergence. From July a flash back test of Fib golden pocket currently posited $39.2 – 39.5k:

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CME gap on open this Sunday evening which will need to be back filled. Note how the January low filled that CME gap from July so that was probably the major bottom:

On weekly can’t see in July the intraweekly single day back test from 0.382 to golden pocket retracement, but can see the subsequent nearly 0.5 retracement to the golden pocket on the following week. Thus may only see bullish weekly candle dojis indicating this move may be much more bullish than July. A foot stomp on 39.2k here could be a slingshot:

BTC.D hasn’t blasted off yet but expecting it to:

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Posted in my private Telegram group:

Gentlemen (since no more ladies in this group) I will be going hodl after any back test and will stop making posts about trading until the next major top expected maybe March/April perhaps. Will be watching the Pi Cycle Top indicator and Fib targets.

Remember I expect Bitcoin to outperform altcoins initially, so I might give the signal when I’ve sold some BTC to buy altcoins, if I do on the way up.

ADD: any back fill is the probably the last chance to board what appears to be a probable Bitcoin rocket.

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Possible bullish inverted H&S pattern forming with a projected move to 1.786 (45.4k) before declining to form right shoulder ~$40.5 – 41.5k, with a possible spike low of ~39.7k. Breakout would project to 57k later in February.

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Bingo.

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Right shoulder (of posited inverted H&S pattern) price target to start repurchasing what you sold at 45.6k due to my correct prediction:

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youtu.be/HRffICcu8OU?t=30

Small traders are about to get short squeezed.

You should be going long now.

S&P500 stock breadth indicating a bottom.

Last 5 charts show the Nasdaq has bottomed. Nasdaq declines as interest rates rise. Rates have hit the 2% target and preparing to decline. Today Fed releases inflation report and I expect it to be lower than expected! Remember I predicted we would get a last buying opportunity today.

Bearish divergence for interest rates.

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I think the pattern is January 12 left shoulder pattern is repeating and Bitcoin will come back down one more time below 43k, possibly as low as 41.5k on a spike.

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I think maybe one last thrust down. I have been accumulating. Will hodl now into the predicted ~April top.

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Inflation FUD giving us the buying opportunity today:

marketwatch.com/story/a-firestorm-of-hawkish-fed-speculation-erupts-following-strong-u-s-inflation-reading-11644588034?mod=MW_article_top_stories

We will get one final FUD dip opportunity probably on or before the Fed releases its meeting minutes on Feb 16.

Remember Game of Trades’ recent video. The dumb money is scared. But corporate earnings are skyrocketing. And the Fed will not accelerate its guidance, as the market has already raised interest rates sufficiently. The market is overreacting and this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime!

rttnews.com/3262299/u-s-stocks-move-mostly-lower-amid-increase-in-treasury-yields.aspx?refresh=1

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youtu.be/M70KijNEQvs

Game of Traders apparently read my message about the inverse H&S pattern that might be forming. He is cautioning about one more pullback perhaps $38 – 39k. He also posited a double-bottom low could be possible, but I doesn’t seem he is leaning that being as likely.

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Market is about to rally!!

youtu.be/qM1BKHKYsYU

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Reversal is forming. Maybe one more thrust down:

youtu.be/kCyrbpVbHMA?t=522

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Maybe one more thrust down:

shelby3

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