Price action is nearing the bottom of the parallel channel from top 1-3
On H4 and H1 I can see price grinding a bit lower the rest of the day, toward 7500-7600. Personally I'm not interested in that move, it's only a few pips away.
At which point we should see a bullish divergence on smaller time frame
I'm not expecting a squeeze from here, shorts are too low
But btcusd:longs have been going down more
In an ideal scenario we would see a slow raise toward blue resistance, followed by a sharp move to retest the channel
That would allow our daily indicators to bounce off their median
Remember, wave 4 is often noticeable on those by doing so
Watch macd and Rsi for that
And Stoch should reset a bit lower, near the bottom
That would be our buy signal, to enter a long i'd personally wait to see that scenario (symbolized with black arrows on chart and indicators)
In term of target, i'm looking at the blue box, 9800 to 12000 is a wide area.
But to reach anything above 9800 we would have to break outside of the channel, that's an option for a wave 5 but not my favorite scenario at the moment. Yet something very specific to watch for when placing your take profit.
The wave II target is very hypothetical, once again a wave 5 is driven by fear, so let's keep in mind how fast and low this can go once greed kicks in a few pips away from target.
*timing matters a lot, price can exit the channel in either (and consecutively both) direction, once at the top, especially recommend to be watching price closely on 8/9 and 8/18 when major trend-line intersect