Bulltrap! Bearmarket NOT over yet! Dump to $3500

28. März 2019

Hello,

a few days ago i shared a TA, which said, that we going to dump.
Actually we did pump from $3900-$4000.

I did re-analyse my TA and saw that my dump call was too early.

I did redraw the rising channel and heres my final analyse which makes me feel like, this is going to be it!

ANALYSE:
As you can see, BTC is moving still inside the rising channel .

BTC had the same behaviour from December 2018 - February 2019, where it did move inside a big falling wedge and created 4 rising channel before it broke out on the 8th February after nearly touching the 200 weekly SMA .
After every rising channel , a dump did follow.

When you look at the current price situation, BTC is near the:
- Resistance of the rising channel at $4120 (Purple)
- Resistance of the upper symmetrical triangle $4120 (Blue)
- Resistance of the 200 weekly EMA at $4100

3 big resistances which make me hard to believe, that we are out of the bear market.

Also the NEWS do release articles, in which they say "Bull market started", "BTC is on the way up" and stuff, and you should know if too many people believe that BTC is pumping, then its more obvious that this may be a bull trap.

So here are my dump scenarios and targets:
Scenario 1: Big red candle down to $3500
Scenario 2: Dump to $3700.. BTC may stop there and move sideways creating a "bearflag", and a dump to $3500 may follow.. ($3500 is the 200 weekly SMA , which is the biggest support line and which hasnt been broken before)

Expecting the dump to happen tomorrow on Friday, because on Fridays, most of the dumps did happen.

I will share in the next minutes under the "update" section another ideas/proofs, why i do think, that bearmarket is NOT over!

28. März 2019

Anmerkung

UPDATE1:
Monthly Chart:
Here i like to compare the current beartrend with the beartrend from 2015.

As you can see, the 10SMA is nearly crossing the 21EMA and 30SMA. This could mean that price is being pushed down again if it crosses. Look back to the 2015 beartrend. You will be suprised how similiar it looks.

Also the 50EMA. For the first time since November, BTC did close below that 50EMA. Right now the price is moving above it. But it did also in December, January and February until the bears could push the price below that 50EMA before the monthly did end.

As the monthly does end in 3 days, i am expecting that major dump happen tomorrow.. or in the next 3 days!

28. März 2019

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Update2:

The falling Channel:
In the previous screenshot, you can see, that BTC created a falling channel in 2015 and is also having one now. BTC did always respect the resistance and support line, before the breakout.

Here you can see, how beautiful the weekly 200SMA is acting as the support line of the blue triangle.

28. März 2019

Anmerkung

Update3:

OMG! 5 green weekly candles! BEAR MARKET MUST BE OVER!
BOOM! Down we go ;)

We had this scenario in 2014-2015 too. Then the price did dump.

28. März 2019

Anmerkung

Update4:
The power of the NVT indicator.

In the last bull/beartrends, the NVT Indicator was pretty usefull and told us, when the market was oversold or overbought.

Looking at the current status, the NVT indicator is nearly touching the "Overbought" area.. which means, that BTC wont rise much and a dump is most likely to happen soon.