First the setup
In bitcoin's past, parabolic corrections usually land within the 0.5 to 0.786 area, most commonly around the 0.618 level. First off we map the parabolic curve – tested many times over throughout this bull run indicated by red arrows. Next we draw fibs from the 2015 low to an estimated target of 15k.
So why 15k?
While recently we tested the parabolic , and broke it up to 11.4k, the parabolic blow off and correction hasn't been as extreme as previous parabolic blow offs. Sentiment is still mixed and this final run up didn't get super vertical. I'd like to see something like a very strong candles in the lead up to a more extreme blow off top. So why 15k? If we fib out from the 2015 low to 15k, the fibs match nicely to some recent key price movements (see below):
Having hit the top of the parabola curve, we should correct to the bottom of the curve, approximately 7,600 price range providing the fuel required to propel us into a parabolic blow off at 15k followed by a 0.618 correction taking us around 5,850 (although we could go as low as 3,400 area).
Bit of a tinfoil hat idea, long stretch, but I don't think we've seen a top in the macro sense just yet.
Because we overshot the parabolic move to the upside hitting 20k, I've adjusted the fibs in the chart below:
Currently we've hit our first target fib of 61% at approximately 7.4k. Analysing historical macro corrections, the low could potentially land anywhere between the 61% and 78% fib lines, so we still may have some downside anywhere down to 4.2k.
I hope a lot of trader look at this kind of trendlines, because its the only way to draw lang-term trendlines in this chart in my opinion. Quite extreme, even in the log-chart we need to draw parabolas because linear is not fast enough ;-)
But one question: Are these trendlines "real" parabolas? So are they the graph of a interpolation polynomial f(d) = a*d^2 + b*d + c (d = day on the x-axis)?
Or are they just spleen lines or something like else...
I really would like to draw parabolas in a chart but i could not finde a free program which offers such tools... Can u not publish a more detailed picture (now
I can only select 24.11., 4.12., ... and not each day).