BTCUSD targeting $49000 on January 8.

8. Jan.

By the structure of the breakout in Minor wave 5 since the correction of the run of January 1 of the new year, we can forecast that bitcoin should advance at least to 49000 dollars, probably by day’s end.

8. Jan.

Anmerkung

In more detail, this appears to be the market’s plan for today.

Minuette wave (iii) in blue comprises the five-wave sequence i-ii-iii-iv-v in Subminuette degree, of which waves one, two, and three have completed. The fourth wave appears in progress in a fairly shallow correction between the 1.000 and 1.272 levels.

8. Jan.

Anmerkung

The structures in the detail view still look a bit funk, especially wave ii riding the 45000 line.
Here is a better assignment.

8. Jan.

Anmerkung

Micro wave four may have be concluding now. The rally should continue in wave five.

9. Jan.

Anmerkung

January 8 2024, 22h00 EST

The market spent quite some time in a small fourth wave correction two degrees lower than its short-term goal of about 49000, the top of Minuette wave 3.

The next, intermediate target is to crack the high point of the 2021/22 bear market inflation on March 28: 2022, which I labeled as an X wave back then. This line coincides now with the end of Micro wave 5, which is in progress coming out of the correction this evening. It is also confluence with the 1.414 fib level of Micro wave 1 extension.

9. Jan.

Anmerkung

Consolidation continues sideways on the 1.00 fib level to an extent that we need to reconsider the wave structure to preserve good form, per the EWT, even while the third wave remains longer than the first.
I have some ideas of course….

10. Jan.

Anmerkung

The market gyrations from the SEC not able to keep their media outlets secure , have certainly had an impact on wave structure with an interrupted rally and quick reversal when the facts emerged shortly after.
But the outlook stays bullish.
The retreat after the outbreak forced me to assign this as a wave one peak (new 12-months high) and the down trading thereafter as the second wave.
This yields a potential for the third wave in the 52000 area (1.618 extension), with the 1.000 level at around 49000, my previous goal for this post. Anything between these marks should be possible and acceptable. Of course we have to realize that this exceeds the level of the X-wave from the 2022 bear market, where we expect further resistance, perhaps in a fourth wave of a lower degree.

11. Jan.

Trade ist aktiv

TARGET REACHED.
49048
It took a little longer than first thought, but that’s okay.

11. Jan.

Anmerkung

In all honesty, reaching a target may be satisfactory in the coin bag, but that doesn’t justify the explanation entirely.

The market gyrations about the ETF nonsense took their toll in a lot of noise in the price structure. In addition, the heavy resistance from a major trend line and a structural apex in the 2022 bear market have compressed trading significantly so that there was not room for well developed third wave reaches w/r/t the first wave sizes, until enough pressure developed for breaking those resistance lines just for a moment, before retreat to safer grounds.
The 48000 range contains the apex of the X-wave that peaked in March 2022 as the major inflection of the bear market trend. It is very close to the 0.618 retrace level of the entire bear market down-trend. It is often viewed as the confirmation level of the this bull market. Many traders believe it cannot be crossed in a bear market they believe is still in progress. Therefore the level is defended heavily. Another obstacle is the top trend line of the entire trading range channel from November 2021. This lies just above the 0.618 level.
Trend lines are to be broken, eventually. They hold their value for a while, but we have to wait to discover how aggressively the market seeks higher ground.

11. Jan.

Anmerkung

This is the visual result of this small episode at the beginning of the 2024 bull market.
It will probably take some more work to secure these price levels below the 50000 mark.



Wave assignments are tentative and speculative at this point.

20. Jan.

Anmerkung

As documented in my other posts, with reaching this milestone at 49000, the market has exhausted its potential for wave one of the coming bulk of the 2023/24 bull market.
The following chart shows the final arrangement at the top of the market. For more details of prior history check out my other posts.
The amazing part is the simplicity that emerged with this completion, and the following sell-off by about 9000 points in wave 2.