Bitcoin Daily Update (day 317)

3. Feb. 2019

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge


Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < L MA

Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel | Symmetrical triangle with $1,000 measured move
Horizontals: S: $3,386 | R: $3,500
Trendline: Symm triangle
Parabolic SAR: Broken SAR
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 1.97% spread. Arbitragers have been chipping away at this spread selling spot and buying futures.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back, will be interesting to watch
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0002%
TD’ Sequential: G2 closed > G1
Ichimoku Cloud: Absolutely amazing how well the Tenkan-Sen has been acting as resistance. I am a firm believer that traditional settings are best in all markets.
Relative Strength Index: Testing trend resistance
Average Directional Index: If crosses 25 then that would confirm bear trend
Price Action: 24h: +0.8% | 2w: -5% | 1m: -7.6%
Bollinger Bands: Squeeze with price below MA
Stochastic Oscillator: D buy signal. 3D posturing for buy

Summary: You could make a very strong bullish and bearish case right now. That is usually a good time to stay out of the market. Conversely it can also be when some of the best signals happen to occur, when there is equilibrium a big move is likely to follow.

Bearish Case

Outside of the short term MA Consensio is fully bearish and the long term MA is acting as clean resistance in confluence with the Tenken-Sen & Bollinger Band MA. For me symmetrical triangles also carry a bearish bias when the overall trend is bearish.

The backwardation is a bullish indicator but I view the narrowing spread as bearish. Flipping back to Contango would make me seriously reconsider position.

BTCUSDSHORTS appear to have created a higher low. Even though they are pulling back right now I still view that chart as a bearish indicator (primed for shorts to pile on).

Bullish Case

I have been expected a bounce to $5,200+ since November. The gap in the visible range volume profile needs to be filled and I expect that to happen now before the final capitulation.

The daily Stochastic just got a buy signal. The 3D and Weekly are not far behind. I love seeing all three in confluence.

We just had 32 consecutive Bearish SAR’s on the Daily chart and they just turned bullish. I have recently started backtesting how many consecutive SAR’s can happen before a correction and > 30 is definitely on the higher end.

The TD Sequential just closed a green 2 > a green 1 following the 32 consecutive bearish SAR’s is particularly interesting. It triggered a long entry this afternoon, but only a very small one due to Consensio.

I didn’t another Bubble Comparison this afternoon and that provided very good confirmation of my short term bullish bias.



Analyzing the 200 MA and the 200 EMA on BTC has illustrated some very interesting results. 200 MA crossing 200 EMA with price below happened at the bottom in 2014. 200 EMA crossing 200 MA with price above called the beginning of the following bull market. Bitcoin