Only downs? No cycle? - Possible July uptrend to retest 7 or 8k.

29. Juni 2018

I believe Bitcoin will test 3.5k to 5k range before the its reversal.
I explained my thoughts about it here:

This small-scale idea is based upon the framework above.

I believe before we test 3.5 - 5k range we will have a rally in July to retest 7k or 8k resistance and the one we retest will determine how low we will go. If Bitcoin break above 7k and retest 8k, not only we will bounce off the top of the Ichi cloud, we also break the Pop (downtrend) channel for the first time. Therefore, the retest of 8k (maybe even higher but I'll be pessimistic) I believe will mean we will see the close proximity of 5k as our bottom.

For the retest of 7k, we will eye close proximity of 3.5k as our bottom before reversal.

Reasoning:

RSI is triple bottoming in a single month! Last two oversell signal showing a hidden bullish divergence. Crossing thru the MA in RSI is the signal I'm looking for.

Looking at the chart via Heiken Ashi, we can also see the TD sequential is coming to the 9th day (can't show it on the chart due to limitations.)

Am I sure? No. But I think there is a high possibility to go up than go down.

Stops should be set for 5.5k (Loss of ~6%). Targets are 7 - 8k.

Let me know what you think. Thank you.

29. Juni 2018

Trade ist aktiv

We have a crossing of RSI thru MA.

I believe we're headed to 7k retest.

18. Juli 2018

Trade ist aktiv

Spot on!

Let's talk about current situation and then profits.

Major point is Bitcoin has broken the ceiling of the downtrend channel, now defining a less-steeper alternative for its future downtrend. I believe the ceiling will act as a new floor (dashed red line in the graph).

Secondly, not shown in the graph (due to graph limitation) but in the daily chart Bitcoin is above the Bollinger Band, showing an increased possibility of a 3-4 day long sideways or down trend until it reaches to BB's center.

On the Daily RSI, our MA is still ok but RSI is way above its MA - another signal for short term downtrend. Possible good scenario is MA of RSI will act as a support.

Next, Bitcoin has impaled the Ichi cloud from bottom, which strengthens the possibility of Senkou B becoming a support.

Lastly, 4h chart with same analysis showing a very bearish sign for a short term.

Conclusions:

We might still have a bite for 8k but not at the moment. I believe buyers have run out of fuel and for 4-5 days we are headed to 7k - to our new support. At that value BB can normalize, and we can test 7k as a psych value, Senkou B support, and MA support of the RSI.

Profits:

We are now sitting on 25% profit. I think it's a good point for locking in profits. We can take the full profit and half the initial investment.

1000 units of capital is now 1250. Take 750, and leave 500. For a possible 7k test we will lose ~5.5% of the 500 which is ~28 units - reasonable amount to pay for 7k support test.

Possible re-entry is again 7k. We should re-analyze the situation once we're near 7k. If we go higher from this point, short the remaining capital whenever you are satisfied your thirst.

22. Juli 2018

Trade ist aktiv

Is there a room above?

I believe there is but not right now. I still maintain a short-term 7k retest but let's look at 4h chart first.

In the 4h chart, I expect a sideways movement until 50MA and spot price meets. This could happen in 2-3 days. Then, for any upwards movement RSI should signal for a room above. If RSI goes back to 50-55 we could have an increased possibility of price moving above 8k. For now, this doesn't look very likely.



In daily chart, we can also see similar patterns emerging. For the 7k retest we see 50MA coming from below. Also for the 8k test we see 200MA forming a possible resistance. I would also wait for daily RSI to hit at least 55 to signal an upwards movement.

Conclusion:

Next resistance target is 8.5k. MA's are fine but I don't see any confidence in oscillators - the room above right now is a low possibility.

Entering any new position right now is a trade for max 13% gain. I will not add any new position right now, and wait for 2-3 days.

23. Juli 2018

Trade ist aktiv

Numbers:

We've taken profits and half the capital at 7400 with an entry price of 5899: 25% profit. We kept half of our capital in the game and shorting that would yield now ~4% profit.

Total profit is then 27%.

Is it profitable to stay greedy?

I still don't see a room above right now, so if you want to keep the remaining capital in the game, set tight stop losses.

What I see in 4h chart is an hidden bearish divergence and price is likely to move towards the Ichi cloud. Both 4h and 1d frames are giving overbought signals.

Let's keep a close eye on 4h.

25. Juli 2018

Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht

We have fully reached our goals for July. What a run!

Now for conclusions,

Our trade provided a 42% profit window for trading. With our profits taken at 7400 we've sacrificed some profit however stayed confident - we have 31% profit which is still great.

Now, what can we do next?



With price reaching to ~8.5k Bitcoin changed the angle of downtrend channel and now sitting above the Ichi cloud in daily chart - this was the most optimistic run we could've seen in the short term and it happened.

Price might hold above the cloud at 7.7k is range until RSI relaxes. We still have a hidden bearish div in 4h.

We can discuss our next play in a new idea.