A lot of people right now need to know where the base of BTCs April correction may come in, and me too.
Is this is a correction, or is BTC stepping down into a mini bear market, with possible lows incoming in the 40s, if not 30s?
I will leave that question to other charts I will post soon mapping three scenarios relative to what I see as the macro background.
For the time being, I wanted to give a quick look at April's correction vis-a-vis the corrections in January and February.
I'm trying to find the bottom relative to the initial downside impulse. Confluence on the Fibonacci levels is what I'm looking for.
Observations:
1) April's correction (if that it is what is) looks more like February than January. In January, there was significant rejection of the downside impulse, reaching as far as the 0.786 before rolling back down. February reached the 0.702 before quickly continuing to the downside.
2) April starts slower, but is accelerated dramatically 18 April, in a massive liquidation wick. If we take this as the major downside impulse, how can we estimate the base in comparison to January and February? Neither give a solid roadmap. January reached down past the 0.786 on the downside impulse. February was staggered, and we do have one impulse that rested on the 0.702. I'm using this as a reference point.
3) How does BTC perform within the Fibonacci levels in either case? We know in both February and January, BTC doesn't make it to 1 on the Fibonacci levels. But it gets close. In January, I'm mapping the 0.702 between three clear downside waves. In February, I'm placing it on the initial downside impulse.
4) If we treat April like February, this gives scenario #2. A possible bottom of 46.2, with one more leg down. This scenario sees BTC play quite nicely between the Fibonacci levels, though it should be noted the weakness of the relief rally in all cases.
5) Scenario #1 is more severe, placing the initial April downside impulse on the 0.618. This gives a projection of around 43.7 as a possible base. In this Fibonacci placement, BTC looks very range bound initially, in terms of Fibonacci levels. I think it's a difficult call, but so far I'm going with scenario #2 and the base at 46.2. Scenario #1 looks more like market panic after a black swan event. Scenario #2 looks more like a deep liquidity grab, with a narrative emerging (not a great one, in my view) to cover what is happening. I lean towards this.
Either way, I'm currently playing this as a corrective wave. Invalidation and BTC stepping down into a bear market would come, I feel, if BTC reaches down to around the 41k level.
General sentiment, I have to acknowledge, is bearish. Perhaps a lot depends on how whales want to play this.
Is alt season about to be aborted? Or are we close to a full resumption, and potentially a dramatic uptick?
Feel free to comment.
Is this is a correction, or is BTC stepping down into a mini bear market, with possible lows incoming in the 40s, if not 30s?
I will leave that question to other charts I will post soon mapping three scenarios relative to what I see as the macro background.
For the time being, I wanted to give a quick look at April's correction vis-a-vis the corrections in January and February.
I'm trying to find the bottom relative to the initial downside impulse. Confluence on the Fibonacci levels is what I'm looking for.
Observations:
1) April's correction (if that it is what is) looks more like February than January. In January, there was significant rejection of the downside impulse, reaching as far as the 0.786 before rolling back down. February reached the 0.702 before quickly continuing to the downside.
2) April starts slower, but is accelerated dramatically 18 April, in a massive liquidation wick. If we take this as the major downside impulse, how can we estimate the base in comparison to January and February? Neither give a solid roadmap. January reached down past the 0.786 on the downside impulse. February was staggered, and we do have one impulse that rested on the 0.702. I'm using this as a reference point.
3) How does BTC perform within the Fibonacci levels in either case? We know in both February and January, BTC doesn't make it to 1 on the Fibonacci levels. But it gets close. In January, I'm mapping the 0.702 between three clear downside waves. In February, I'm placing it on the initial downside impulse.
4) If we treat April like February, this gives scenario #2. A possible bottom of 46.2, with one more leg down. This scenario sees BTC play quite nicely between the Fibonacci levels, though it should be noted the weakness of the relief rally in all cases.
5) Scenario #1 is more severe, placing the initial April downside impulse on the 0.618. This gives a projection of around 43.7 as a possible base. In this Fibonacci placement, BTC looks very range bound initially, in terms of Fibonacci levels. I think it's a difficult call, but so far I'm going with scenario #2 and the base at 46.2. Scenario #1 looks more like market panic after a black swan event. Scenario #2 looks more like a deep liquidity grab, with a narrative emerging (not a great one, in my view) to cover what is happening. I lean towards this.
Either way, I'm currently playing this as a corrective wave. Invalidation and BTC stepping down into a bear market would come, I feel, if BTC reaches down to around the 41k level.
General sentiment, I have to acknowledge, is bearish. Perhaps a lot depends on how whales want to play this.
Is alt season about to be aborted? Or are we close to a full resumption, and potentially a dramatic uptick?
Feel free to comment.
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
