jpawela

BTC Crash Analysis

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Help me get rep so I can chat!

This is my analysis of BTC's price movements. Any feedback is appreciated, so let me know if I'm wrong about anything or on track.

The crash is obviously a huge breakout, especially based on the month-long triangle that formed right before.
The fib regression based on December's all-time high shows that the 0.5 line is a weak support line right now, so I'm watching for either a) 0.5 to continue to be a support line, and the price to have already hit the bottom, or b) a breakout along that line, in which case I'm watching the other lines on the fib regression for a support line at the bottom. I'm mainly looking for a strong support line to be present on one of these lines and/or a MACD reversal around one of these points.
My strategy is watching for the reversal and buying at the bottom or very soon after, then hodling as the price rises recovers from the yearly January low.

I'd appreciate feedback on how I placed my Fibonacci regression, especially the bottom. I placed it on a recent low, but if the price doesn't seem to respond to that regression in the future it's possible that I should have placed it on an older low.
Your trend lines do not count. You need 3 points of contact to show a trend line. Your resistance trendline only has 2. And your support trendline is iffy since there was a couple days of consolidation which had 3 points of contact in a couple of days, so in the big picture it seems like this trend line also only has to points of contact. Fib lines are good though. But BTC is on its way back up. From a TA, it already completed its ABC correction. Fundamentally, the futures contract expired at the low around $9000 and came back up almost immediately. Next futures contract is from the CME due for Jan 26 which Wall Street took longs on, this bad boy is on its way up
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